Translated material
"Russia since 2026 will enter the uncontrollable process of destruction of the economy." Analysis and forecast from economist Igor Lipsitsa*
The first half of 2025 passed. Entrepreneurs, officials and economists began to talk more and more often about the recession of the Russian economy. How harmful will it be? What will happen to salaries, currencies, industries, military spending and budget. In an interview with Republic, an economist, Doctor of Economics, Igor Lipsitz (*The Ministry of Justice considers the Ino -Agent), told about all this.
- Recently, the general director of the analytical center of VTsIOM Valery Fedorov said that the economy of large salaries is an inevitable way for Russia. At the same time, there is a study that every sixth Russian company admits the possibility of reducing salaries to employees in the future for the next 12 months. What are your considerations in this regard?
- The idea of "high salaries" was voiced by Putin. And accordingly, he immediately picked it up by the VTsIOM, like a loyal organization. But the problem must be looked comprehensively. Fedorov sees the shortage of labor and makes a logical assumption: if the employer wants to keep his employees, he must increase their wages. But the truth is that the “high wage economics” is a situation that has already temporarily arose in the Russian economy after the outbreak of war. If before the start of the war the unemployment rate in the country's economy was 4.4%, then by August 2023 this indicator became less than 3% and a shortage shortage began to be formed. And then Russian companies since October 2022 began to increase salaries in order to hold or lure workers. And until December 2024, this process was stable and gave noticeable results: the nominal salary grew faster than inflation, that is, the real wage increased. But from the beginning of 2025, the situation broke out, and by March 2025, even according to Rosstat, the growth of real salaries ceased, that is, the indexation of nominal salaries barely kept up with the increase in the cost of life due to inflation .
This means that now another strip begins, when people, contrary to the vigorous promises of President Putin, will no longer increase the salary. Or in the best case they will increase, but not much, and therefore, slower than inflation. And in the worst people they will be dismissed or transferred to a partially unpaid work. Information about such situations is already coming to me. The economy is a tough system. In order for the company to increase the salary to its employees, it should have funds for this, and not the president’s promise. And such funds are brought by an increase in labor productivity, which is advantageous in relation to the growth of wages, which is again usually achieved only thanks to very large investments in the updating of the technological process. Then you can increase the employee to the employee without reducing your profits. If the company increases salaries, and the equipment and technologies are the same and, accordingly, the performance of its employees is the same as before, then the increase in salaries is possible only by reducing the profit of owners.
Subscribe to read the whole
Make a subscription Redefine.media to read Republic
Subscribe [you can pay for a Russian or foreign card. The subscription is extended automatically. You can unsubscribe at any time.]
Where are the money subscribers going