Translated material
Program "50 days"
The Kremlin would like to continue, and to rule the world with the United States. But there is one thing: for decisions-a month and a half
Photo: Dmitry Dukhanin / Kommersant
(18+) This material (information) was produced, distributed and (or) sent by a foreign agent Kolesnikov Andrei Vladimirovich or concerns the activities of the foreign agent Kolesnikov Andrei Vladimirovich.
The headlines of recent times: "Putin will continue military operations until he receives the desired." Everything is intelligible here - yes, it will continue, and six months of euphoria, associated with the hope of establishing peace Trump, have passed. However, it is unclear what is “desirable”. Moreover, as the famous revisionist of Marxism E. Bernstein taught, "the ultimate goal is nothing, the movement is all."
Putinism is not communism; clear goals are not determined in it. It has a worldview blurred filling-Russian messianism, there is a procedural part-to defeat the West that we want, by definition of Putin, to make a “chick-chick”, but we will not give it. And this is enough: within the framework of such a goal-setting, you can move forward, far ahead of your limbs, years and decades, until any force majeure has been tired or happened.
Goodbye, peace!
Military operations are just a means of transportation in the direction of the unattainable goal: we can talk about problems with the world order, even call it disorder, but there will be no world order in Russian. Humanity, even in the person of BRICS, the countries of the Third World, the former republics of the Soviet Union, will not immediately ignore the rights and freedoms of man and citizen, the mechanisms of political democracy and the market economy, replacing them with the traibalist and fundamentalist “traditional values”. You can’t smear them on bread and you won’t go far on them.
The centuries -old moans regarding the sunset of the West indicate that in this very West there is an eternal “white night”. Not rolling. The same story with Western currencies: a globalist dollar in his hand is better than a sovereign tugrick in the sky.
However, from the point of view of continuing the fighting, this all matters: the Kremlin is really ready to continue. The mood of different social groups, erosion of the economy, the waste of taxpayers do not care. In the representatives of the establishment, kefir will not be translated in the refrigerator, and the population instead of the daily bread can be satisfied with spectacles and ideological food. And who helps the state with a word and deed - they also receive social support.
This state strategy in the genre of “after at least a flood” intensifies every day, especially since for future generations the current government prepares an “elite”, which can science to complete annihilation of the rules of the human dormitory and any stable economy.
However, if the Samoyed policy, accompanied by mass loss of representatives of the political and financial establishment from the windows, will continue at such a pace, the “flood” may come already “with us”. “They” there, upstairs, do not see any crisis, they are doing well, including kefir, microphone stands and chain dogs on television. But all the consequences of the lack of crisis management will feel the population of Russia, which is supposed to enthusiastically support this power.
Almost all sectors and sectors of the economy, with understandable exceptions, are located in the register "Stagnation", "Slow Respue", "Decline". The shortage of workers promise to replenish with a “million Indians” - the crown of migration policy! Spending science has reached the lowest level over the past ten years, and training prices, for example, have reached their peak in medical specialties - why the country is science and doctors, we need soldiers and employees of the military -industrial complex. Inflation has long been giving income that has also managed to overheat the economy, not to mention pensions - the substitution coefficient (the ratio of the size of the pension to the size of the salary) fell to ridiculous sizes. There is simply no demography in the country - as evidenced by the closure of Rosstat data on this topic. Crime is growing and will grow, especially in the category of grave and especially serious crimes: Christian commandments are forgotten in the country of Orthodox official, and their oblivion is stimulated by power, propaganda, and the Russian Orthodox Church.
Crime management tasks are in full growth before state management! But the authorities are focused on the fight against “threats of security” within Russia, and Putin would like to stretch the time of special operation. With the period of high expectations of the world and hopes for Trump, you have to say goodbye.
Hello, weapons!
From the frequent use of the rich word “existential” Sartre with Camus and the Simona de Bovoire, which joined them, also hiccups in the next world. In modern Russia - everything is "existential." If, in accordance with the foundations signed by the President, the language (this is not about the language with horseradish) politics speak Russian, the special operation is of vital significance for Putin. “The very existence of Russia”, it seems, was not under any threat, under it was and is the power of one person and his political and financial clan. Preservation of power required "droves." And she must continue.
In these circumstances, it is very difficult to abandon Modus Vivendi, which has become familiar in more than three years.
How to maintain power, control over the minds, own unimaginable wealth without his own and repression? So military operations became "existential" in every sense.
The Trump program “50 days”, of course, is not a “theatrical ultimatum” - in the first approximation this is a plan to reduce the income of the federal budget in the hope of reducing expenses for military purposes. But a well -known joke will play within Russia: "Dad, will you drink less?" “No, you will become less.” And also treat, receive education, rest, etc. Perhaps in the "50 days" there is also a weak hope for the cessation of the long -suffering period of the state -forming people. But the Russian experience of the last two and a half decades, like the latest history of autocracies, casts into question the adequacy of the theory of “loss of patience with the people”. As well as the doctrine of the concidiness of autocracy in the face of stagflation and economic erosion.
The “escalation for the sake of de -escalation” is not too successful: Putin “understands the language of power” only in the sense that he is ready to respond even more in force, including on the internal front. Trump intuitively understands this, and therefore gave the Russian side 50 days “before the order”. Having received the answer: But we are-we are “for”, all the Ukrainians are not ready for negotiations.
An element of oscillations and caution, if you leave Medvedev and Lavrov aside, are in the position of the Russian side. But only one person makes decisions here, and his tactics are known: since the time of Munich’s speech, he does not stop, even if he called assumptions about the subsequent moves “some kind of delirium”. While "nonsense" became completely material force.
The depletion of resources - material, financial, psychological, human - according to the logic of things should encourage the Kremlin to adjust policy. But maybe, on the contrary, and psychologically stimulate escalation.
In any case, you need to prepare for such a scenario, as well as for the continuing evasion of Trump. The only thing (lack of) negotiations could preserve the escalation on a new round is the exchanges of prisoners, wounded, killed and, importantly, civilians and political prisoners. This is the last channel that can connect Russia with the outside world. Except for the international airport of Istanbul and several other air harbors.
After "50 days"
Surprisingly, the Kremlin was not ready for Trump's plan, although in the framework of political planning it would be worth considering the possibility of strict American sanctions. Probably, there is simply no political planning at the very top of the system. Or, in conditions of absolute power of one person, no one decides.
The Kremlin is still careful about Trump and obviously, judging at least by the altered cover of the history of Medinsky for 11 grades (Soyuz-Apollo, Super Series-1972), was laid to improve relations with today's USA for a long time. So, the dream of a “deal” still remains. As a dream of big money. And as a dream of the redistribution of the world between large bosses - Trump, Putin, SI. Trump still suffers, perhaps, seeing the same picture. However, the new Yalta with a new cold war to maintain mobilization of the masses within Russia is possible only after the establishment of peace. The Pervisty is little interested in the President of the United States, he needs a peace treaty. First, the world is a deal. Not the other way around.
Putin is still inside his dilemma: I don’t want to stop, and Trump is undesirable to lose. But once you have to decide. 50 days are left.
(Completely in the "New Gazeta. Journal" No. 10, which is preparing for printing)