Inspector

The results of the visit of Keith Kellog to Kyiv. A look from Ukraine

The second visit of the American special representative of Keith Kellog to Kyiv, as for the previous time, coincided with time (and, obviously, no coincidence) with Trump’s new high-profile statement about the Russian-Ukrainian war and was already habitually in the shadow of this statement. On the other hand, in connection with the messages sounded from the White House on Monday, Kellogue of Kyiv suddenly began to play with new colors and became, of course, not the central, but an important element of the puzzle that some Ukrainian experts would like to designate as a change in the US strategy in favor of Ukraine.

We talk about the visit of Kelllog, the real results of which can be seen later.

Conflicting expectations

On the eve of Keith Kellogue, the Ukrainian media-expert community was divided into opinions about what can be expected from this visit. One position was based on the fact that the special representative did not have much influence on both Trump himself and his administration, and Kiev should perceive his visits as a kind of diplomatic ritual. The ritual, however, is necessary, from the point of view of maintaining constant American-Ukrainian contacts, especially through Kelllog, which can be called, in fact, the only undoubted supporter of Ukraine in the team of the current owner of the White House.

The fact that the 80-year-old general is far from the first place involved in the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the whole previous story said. Indeed, although KELLOL is officially the special representative of Washington on Russia and Ukraine, he never visited Moscow, did not meet with the Kremlin leadership (there Steve Whitkoff carried out this function there), did not participate in negotiations with the Russian delegation in Riyadh and was not seen in the process of preparing or observing the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul.

On the other hand, there were enough arguments that emphasize the importance and even some exclusivity of the current visitor's visit. This is not only the novelty of the organizational and technical moments, which immediately caught my eye: a whole week was planned to stay in Ukraine-an unprecedented long time, and the visit program also included a trip to the regions. The status and number of representatives from the Ukrainian side at meetings with Kelllog also distinguished this visit: the President of Ukraine, Prime Minister, top leaders of law enforcement agencies, Minister of Defense, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada.

The subject of discussion was clearly indicated - a new mechanism for supplying weapons and sanctions against Russia. But most importantly, the visit of KELLLOL, as well as the meeting of Trump with the head of NATO Mark Rutte, were called the links of the same chain and represented a new concept of the White House policy, more stringent in relation to Russia and, accordingly, more complimentary to Ukraine.

It is no coincidence that the general himself suddenly appeared at the meeting of the “Coalition of those who wish” in London, although before that the United States held aside from this format.

All this, against the backdrop of the quiet “disappearance” of Whitkoff from the shuttle -free diplomacy arena, said that Kelllog's “bets” went upward and now he was “ears” and “eyes” of Trump in the difficult issue that the leader of the Republicans recklessly promised to solve in 24 hours. In addition, it was not at all by chance that during the period of KELLLOL visit to Kiev there was a reformatting of the Ukrainian government. The new Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko, possibly, is not the direct creature of Washington, still has experience in participating in such difficult Ukrainian-American relations of the last half of the year and it was she who was responsible for the signing of the same “transaction in the bowels ” , which for several months was the “idea of Fix” of Trump itself. That is why the appointment of Sviridenko can be regarded as a positive signal to the White House, which was designed to testify Kellogs.

Officially , the subject of meetings with Kellogue included the purchase of American weapons, strengthening Ukrainian air defense and strengthening sanctions against Russia. In addition to this, the general’s mission, according to the Ukrainian Americanist Dmitry Dovgopologist, consisted in collecting objective information about the situation at the front, needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and political moods in the country. Some Ukrainian media called KELLLOL’s trip a “revision”, without putting anything reprehensible into this definition.

However, the fate of all these expectations-both optimistic and pessimistic-depended on Trump’s position, which was supposed to be articulated in the “important” statement of the Russian-Ukrainian war announced by him. This statement was expected to reflect the disappointment or even the insult to Putin, who so harshly humiliated Trump, emphasized in a massive shelling of Kiev on July 4, immediately after another conversation with his American substantive. In addition to pure psychology, which in the political behavior of Trump plays not the latter, if not even the first role, it is obvious to talk about the American president aware of the entire semi -annual strategy against the Kremlin, accompanied only by unilateral concessions from Washington.

That is why the role of KELLLOL has increased. That is why his visit to Kyiv began on Monday July 14 - just on the day of the meeting with the general secretary of NATO Mark Rutte, Trump's statements. And although what the American president said, in fact, left more questions than answers, nevertheless both optimists and pessimists found their arguments in it for the forecasts of the future policy of the White House.

Trump is disappointed

On the one hand, Trump announced that the United States will provide Ukraine with high -precision weapons (in particular, Patriot missile systems), which will be bought by European allies and transmitted through NATO mechanisms. And this is the first agreed supply of weapons to Ukraine after the republican returning to the post. Yes, this is not gratuitous weapons, as under Bayden, but given the entire previous categoricality of Trump, even the thoughts of the supply of Ukraine to Ukraine, Kiev perceived this change with obvious relief. Moreover, already on Thursday July 17, the American ambassador at NATO said that the United States has been working on the organization of such sales in accelerated mode. And the Chancellor of Germany Mertz in unison with these words announced that Ukraine will receive two Patriot systems within a few weeks.

Trump also called for the use of “secondary sanctions” in the amount of 100 percent against countries buying Russian oil and gas (for example, China and India) if the Kremlin does not go to negotiations within 50 days. In addition, Ukrainian media noted that Trump’s tonality against Putin became very critical.

On the other hand, if you consider Trump's statement in the context of the capabilities of the European allies of Ukraine, as well as keep in mind the subsequent comments of the American president itself, then all this causes quite reasonable skepticism. Europeans learned about their new mission - buyers of weapons for Ukraine - which is called live. And the very volume and nature of weapons only began to discuss, and what it will be, is still unknown.

The so-called “ultimatum” in 50 days can be regarded as a certain card blanche for the Kremlin, during which he is given the opportunity to increase his military-strategic superiority, having won new Ukrainian territories. Although the binding of the introduction of “secondary” sanctions against the main buyers of Russian oil by this 50-day period may be an indirect invitation for these same buyers to put on Moscow so that it makes concessions. New Delhi, given the status of a strategic partner with the United States and dependence on the American market, has already hastened to declare that he was ready to refuse Russian oil in case of American sanctions. But in relation to Beijing, this is probably from the sphere of hypothetical, given how Trump backwards about tariffs against China.

Trump’s rhetoric itself was not so “antagonistic” for Moscow. For some reason, Trump considered it necessary to inform that he could not call Putin a killer, but rather a “cruel guy” who really does not want peace. Later, the American presidentemphasized that he does not stand on any side in this war.

According to journalist Christian Kerila from Foreign Policy, this indicates an imitation of Ukraine’s support, and not of any change in the strategy.

Looking for a woman? There are two of them

The unexpected decoration of these events was replicated episodes associated with the fair sex, who supposedly contributed to some extent to Ukraine. Trump himself stated that when he in a domestic conversation announced a “pleasant” conversation with Putin on June 4, he received a tough replica of the first lady that Putin was again bombing Kiev.

Given how peculiarly, Trump puts a big policy depending on some of his personal preferences, family life or hobbies (Golf lover, Finland President Alexander Stubb completely uses this), we can assume that melania to some extent affects his husband in the field of politics. At least the sympathizers of Ukraine would like to think so, although this story is unreasonably bloated.

Well, the second woman - Megan Mobbes, the daughter of General Kellogue - is distinguished by a clear and conscious pro -Ukrainian position. She heads the RT Weatherman Foundation charity foundation, which has actively helps Ukraine since the beginning of a full -scale invasion. Megan spends part of his time in Kyiv, regularly on the forefront. She organized a logistic hub on the border of Romania and Ukraine, through which more than 10,000 pallets with medicines, equipment and humanitarian aid in more than 70 hospitals and public organizations were delivered. During a night attack on Kiev on June 5–6, Mobbes wrote in X: "A loud night in Kiev, dad ... I have a strange feeling that the Russians do not want peace." Actually, KELLLOL does not need to be convinced of this.

"Megasoslating" for Megaloman

Against this ambiguous background, the general continues to play the role of a consistent ally of Ukraine, which has long been causing a flurry of criticism and insults from Russian propaganda media and telegram channels. He methodically and meticulously does his job, meets with the Ukrainian leadership, visits the drone production plant ... During his meetings with representatives of the Ukrainian defense sector, special attention was paid to the development of joint projects to localize the production of weapons in Ukraine and Europe. In particular, it was about air defense systems and other critical directions.

On Wednesday, July 16, at a joint briefing with representatives of the Security and Defense sector of Ukraine, the general acquainted with the current operational situation and evaluate the plans of the aggressor state of the Russian Federation until 2036, as well as with data on the preparation of the Kremlin for an armed conflict not only against Ukraine, but also against NATO countries. The leitmotif of the Ukrainian position was the confidence that for the sake of negotiations, concessions or compromises, the Russian army would never leave the territory of Ukraine and that Russians can be forced to stop only by force - military pressure, and this needs US assistance. The Ukrainian side emphasized through Kelllog to strengthen Trump’s still not quite stable confidence in which particular track of relations with Moscow could make the Kremlin owner make concessions.

In general, it is obvious that Kellogue collected enough information to put it on the table for his boss. There is no doubt that this information will be framed in the summary of Ukraine and contain some messages not voiced at the media and requests from Ukraine. Whether it will be perceived in the same way Trump, this is another question. Of course, in Ukraine they hope for this, and a certain optimism causes Zelensky “ Megasoslating ” (and how not to notice the adherence to Trump's beloved megalomanian rhetoric) on mutual trade in the USA on Thursday, as the latter are interested in buying Ukrainian drones. Perhaps this was the first result of the “inspection” of KELLLOL.

In the meantime, despite all the difficulties, the Ukrainians joke that since the night shelling of Kiev stopped due to the visit of KELLLOL, maybe it is worth leaving KELLLOL here for a longer time? Although this short-term termination of night attacks does not concern other cities: the Dnieper was fired on Wednesday, not front-line Vinnitsa at all, but a 500-kilogram bomb was thrown into the Donbass city of Dobropole. However, such attacks have become such a routine and permanent tragedy of the Ukrainian population, at least, the front -line regions of the country that Trump is unlikely to pay attention to this. In Ukraine, they hope that there is a KELLLOL for this.