The reports are louder than shots

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation regularly reports the capture of settlements in Ukraine. What really happens on the contact line?

At the end of last week, Vladimir Putin announced the full control of the Russian army over the city of Yar watches in the Donetsk region. “I can say, assure you that this is fully true,” he said.

The Russian "military commissars" have already reported on the entrance of the divisions of the Russian Army in Pokrovsk and battles in the city. The Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation report almost every day about the capture of Ukrainian settlements. Novyevropa talked with experts about the situation on the fronts of the three and a half years of full-scale war and found out which sections today pose the greatest threat to Ukrainian defense.

Operational environment

“In total, for July, the Russians were able to capture about 600 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory,” Military observer David Sharp tells Novy-Europe. - In my opinion, the most difficult, one might even say, critical situation today for the Ukrainian side develops in the Pokrovsky direction. Pokrovsk and neighboring Mirnograd are covered by Russian troops from several sides. Small, but constant promotion of the advancing parts led to extremely dangerous consequences. The army of the Russian Federation for a year of attacks has already approached the agglomeration almost closely. Diversion-reconnaissance groups seep on the outskirts and fight in residential quarters. Northwest of the wedges of the Russian troops in the direction of the city of Dobropole. There is a threat of the operational environment of Pokrovsk and cutting the route Dobropole -Pokrovsk, which is extremely important for defensive logistics. These problems are associated with the lack of continuous defense in this area.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to control the line of combat contact using scattered strongholds and drones. This is clearly not enough to contain the attacking forces of the enemy.

“Loud reports on significant successful advancements are most often only statements by Russian propaganda,” a military expert, a colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reserve, says Roman Svitan. - However, the pressure in some directions, indeed, increased additionally. The Ukrainian side had insufficient density of troops at the Donbass defense line. Gaps, where there were actually no Ukrainian troops, reached several kilometers. The Armed Forces had to transfer additional reserves to some areas. First of all, we are talking about the area of ​​Pokrovsk. Over the past couple of months, the Russians have been able to get around the resident city of Pokrovsk Mirnograd from the north at the village of Rodinskoye, cutting the track to Pokrovsk.

Roman Svitan notes that the Russians are stomping at Pokrovsk for the second year, having no strength to occupy the city. Small diversion-reconnaissance groups leaking into the city do not carry a serious danger. However, the FPV cries, with the help of which Russians control logistics, make up a significant problem.

Military analyst, former SBU employee Ivan Stupak calls the most dangerous directions for the Armed Forces of Ukraine today Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka. The neck, according to which Pokrovsk is supplied, is about 15 kilometers and is constantly reduced.

In Konstantinovka, this neck reaches 25 kilometers. If the Russians can narrow the supply section near Pokrovsky up to 10 kilometers, the defense of the city will become extremely dangerous, because the tracks will be under the full operational control of Russians.

“I must say that Pokrovsk lasted much longer than experts predicted,” continues Ivan Stupak. - The city, according to many statements, was supposed to fall last year. For some time, DRGs have been going there for some time, arranging ambushes on the fighters of the Armed Forces. As a rule, they are quickly destroyed. But the situation worsens. The threat to the city is so serious that we can assume its capture by the Russians over the next two months. So far, Pokrovsk fulfills its role - it pulls off enemy huge resources and exhausts the coming side as much as possible.

Gate to Konstantinovka

In the area of ​​Chesov, Yara, according to David Sharp, the defense of the Armed Forces can still resist the attacking troops of the Russian Army. Although the experts have no exact information about whether the city is completely captured, it is clear that Russian troops could not realize their entire offensive potential. Despite the video about the Russian flags established in various areas of the city, David Sharp suggests that the APU continue to hold some of their positions in the city.

Judging by the map of the DeepState project, the Shevchenko district of the Yara Oysova remains behind the Ukrainian side. The Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergei L. also claims that the position of Ukrainian troops remain in the city.

Roman Svitan is sure that if the army of the Russian Federation completely took possession of the hourly jar, the Russian troops would immediately move on the attack on Konstantinovka. However, this does not happen at the moment. The interlocutor of Novo-Europe recalls that Russians often officially declare the seizure of a particular settlement. So they “took” Belogorovka almost five times. As a result, the commander was even lifted in this direction for lying reports. In the Yar clock, Ukrainians continue, according to Roman Svitan, to hold positions in the Shevchenko area.

“In the spring of 2024, when the Russian army approached the time Yar, this on a hill of a relatively small settlement with a population of about 12 thousand people was the most important barrier for the advancing troops,” said David Sharp. - He was called "gates to Konstantinovka." However, since that time, the Russians have significantly advanced on other approaches to Konstantinovka from the Toretsk and the tracks on Pokrovsk. So now, Yar’s clock no longer has such a great operational significance. Konstantinovka is already in a half -ring and the battle for the city itself will begin, apparently, in the near future . Also, the Russians began to seriously attack the city of Seversk, located quite close to Kramatorsk. There is 54 APU brigade, which inflicted significant losses to Russians. Recently, a massive attack of the column of Russian armored vehicles was made to Seversk. However, it was repulsed, and a considerable part of the equipment was destroyed.

“In the hourly Yar, Ukraine still holds several foci of resistance in the line of a completely destroyed city,” says Ivan Stupak. - So there is no formal basis for the application for the full seizure of the village of the Russian Army. However, it must be understood that during the battles there is practically nothing left of the city. There today is the Martian landscape.

According to the interlocutor of Novo-Europe, after the final seizure of the watch, the Russian military, most likely, will move to the Kramatorsk-Slavic agglomeration, which includes Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka.

“After all, only in the case of the capture of these cities can we talk about the full control of the Russian Federation over the Donetsk region and the whole Donbass,” said Stupak.

Also, according to Roman Svitan, the Russians are trying to seize the water supply, according to which Donetsk and the surrounding cities are supplied with water. In order to take control of it, it is necessary to finally take possession of the hourly Yar, Toretskoy, and later Slavic. It is for this purpose that the pressure on Seversk and the estuary is increasing.

Svatan suggests that Russians can even try to go around Konstantinovka and immediately advance to Slavyansk. Konstantinovka is a fairly large city, years can take its assault ..

“In the Konstantinovsky direction, the Russians were able to gain a foothold in the village of Popov Yar and are trying to move on in this area,” reports Novo-European by the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergey L. “In the vicinity of the village of Rusin Yar, battles continue, which today does not belong to anyone a“ gray zone ”. In Yablonovka and Alexandro-Kalinov, maneuverable battles are taking place, de facto control of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces above these settlements is no longer. But the army of the Russian Federation has not yet been fixed on this site. There is also a "gray zone." The first defensive line in the southwestern approaches to Konstantinovka was broken through by Russian troops. There is also the advance of Russians in the area of ​​Toretsk, the White Mountain and the Alexander Shultin. In general, the situation in the entire direction is difficult, without prospects in the near future for improvement. It is possible that the environment of Konstantinovka will come from the New Economic, where fights are also going on.

Fights along the entire front line

“An important site is Kupyansk, where the Russians went to the city from the side of the previously captured bridgehead on the banks of the Oskol River in the Kharkov region,” says David Sharp. - The army of the Russian Federation is actually suitable for small groups for urban development. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lacks people to ensure effective defense. In some areas per kilometer of positions, there are only a few Ukrainian soldiers. In such a situation, the enemy seeps deeper and rapidly attacks.

Fights in the Zaporizhzhya region were activated, where the Russians attack the town of Stepnogorsk. Ivan Stupak says that the army of the Russian Federation is actively storming this settlement and nearby areas, including the village of Kamenskoye. If the army of the Russian Federation is able to capture Stepnogorsk, then its artillery will be able to strike at the capital of the region - Zaporozhye.

David Sharp also has data on the attacks of the Russian side in the Zaporizhzhya region, where the Russian army was able to capture several small settlements, including the village of Kamenskoye. However, it is still difficult to say more accurately what kind of forces of forces are used by Russians on this site. But our interlocutor notes that even a slight advancement may ultimately lead to a breakthrough of defense and serious territorial losses.

Additional stretching the resistance line greatly complicates the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and brings problems with logistics and the organization of new positions.

Another dangerous direction for the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces, David Sharp calls the plot on the border of the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions in the Novopavlovka area. There, the Russians continue slow, but constant advance with the seizure of the territory and settlements.

Ivan Stupak confirms that the border of the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions is an extremely dangerous area. The Russians are attacking in the Novopavlovki area. It has not yet been able to take the settlement of the army of the Russian Federation, but bloody battles are underway on this site, drones and planning air bombs are actively used.

In the Sumy region of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to the Roman of Svitan, they replace Russians from the Ukrainian territory. Some settlements have already been liberated. The 155 and 810 brigades of the Russian Marine Corps, as well as parts of the Airborne Forces, fighting in this area suffer significant losses. The Russians, who transferred the main parts to the Pokrovsky direction, have no reserves to strengthen their units in this area.