Occupation, ceasefire or nothing

What can Trump and Putin agree on a personal meeting?

By August 8, when the US ultimatum expires, Russia has not ceased fire in Ukraine. Apparently, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are preparing for a personal meeting, probably next week. The exact date is in question, however, the media are already discussing possible transaction options.

Novyevropa talks about the main options.

Meeting and ultimatum

In July, Donald Trump said that he gives Russia 50 days for the end of hostilities in Ukraine, and soon reduced the term of up to 10 days. Otherwise, the politician promised to impose economic sanctions. Today this period is expired, but the Russian authorities continue the war.

According to Reuters, citing sources, the threat of sanctions by Trump for Russia has become “painful and unpleasant”, but not “catastrophic”. In addition, in Moscow there was a feeling that the United States "little can do." In particular, one of the anonymous sources familiar with discussions in the Kremlin, noted in a conversation with the agency that the politician “had threatened it before”, but did not take any specific actions.

Putin himself, according to Reuters, is strongly determined to completely seize the Ukrainian regions - the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions - as I am confident in the victory of Russia.

“If Putin managed to completely occupy those four regions that he declared the territory of Russia, he could say that his war in Ukraine had achieved its goals,” said James Rogers, who was preparing for the release of Russia, who was preparing for the release of the book.

The sources of the agency emphasize that after the complete conquest of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions, Putin is ready to start negotiations with Trump on a peace agreement. At the same time, Putin is concerned about the deterioration of relations with the United States, but considers military goals more important.

According to Fox News, the meeting between the presidents of Russia and the United States may take place next week. The venue has not yet been determined, but media sources reported that Hungary, Switzerland, Rome and united Arab emirates are being considered.

Meeting instead of a ceasefire

Political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky, in a conversation with Novy-Europe, suggests that Putin will go to a meeting with Trump, since it will not work to avoid it.

“This is his instrument in order not to meet Zelensky, not to sign a peace agreement and at the same time not to break off relations with Trump. So his task is to hold the most empty meeting, about anything, ”the expert notes.

Preobrazhensky draws attention to the fact that this spring Putin has already arranged this. Then the Ukrainian side offered Russia a 30-day truce, but he, according to the political scientist, "technically proposed to start the negotiations in Istanbul." Their results, in fact, came down only to the exchange of prisoners, while the topic of complete ceasefire left the agenda completely.

The interlocutor of Novo-Europe notes that from February, Trump had the task of getting a meeting with Putin as the first step towards serious negotiations.

According to the political scientist, this in itself would already be an achievement. Now, he believes, an American politician will try to force Putin “personally, in words through the mouth” to voice all the Russian demands so that there is something to push away from.

Political scientist Fedor Krasheninnikov is in solidarity, who in the commentary of Novo-Europe assumes that "there may be no deal at all."

“For example, all negotiations can be disrupted at the last moment, because Trump’s condition, that we must meet with Zelensky, is unacceptable for Putin. There is an intermediate option: the meeting of Trump and Putin will take place, but in the format [similar to meetings] Trump and Kim Jong -un. That is, they will talk with great pathos, hold their hands - and nothing will happen. After that, everything will continue in the same mode, ”the expert suggests.

According to the political scientist, the worst script will become if Trump and Putin still agree. Krasheninnikov believes that such a decision is unlikely to be in the interests of Ukraine.

- The worst scenario for Ukraine - if Trump and Putin agree on the conditions that arrange Putin and which will seem acceptable to Trump.

In this case, according to the expert, the next step “will be twisted by Zelensky’s hands” so that he agrees to the conditions under which Russia takes the Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya region, but, “so it is leading troops from the Sumy and Kharkov region”.

“The situation is very tense, and I do not see good scenarios. And even more so I do not see a good script in which Trump, Putin and Zelensky meet, and Trump forces Putin to make some concessions to Zelensky. This, unfortunately, so far seems to be a completely fantastic script, ”Krasheninnikov shared.

Political scientist Nikolai Petrov, in a conversation with the Novo-Europe, called Trump a “rather pragmatic politician”, who needs a spectacular gesture from the meeting-to show himself a peacekeeper. Putin, according to him, is needed negotiations so as not to spoil relations with the United States and demonstrate force.

“If Trump agreed to this meeting, then there were any specific proposals that Putin made or made Putin. This allows you to count on a positive result, although it is not clear how specific. It is clear that it is impossible to end this kind of large -scale long war with one meeting and agreement, ”the expert explains.

Petrov believes that “in principle, the Kremlin suits” the conditions for the end of the war in Ukraine, described in the publication of the Polish publication on the proposals that the Whitkoff handed over to Putin. In the described version, there are no guarantees of NATO non -expanding or the cessation of military support of Ukraine. According to Polish journalists, we are talking about:

• ceasefire in Ukraine without a peace treaty;

• the actual recognition of Russian territorial seizures (by deposit of the issue for 49 or 99 years);

• The abolition of most sanctions against Russia and, in the future, the resumption of energy cooperation, including the import of Russian gas and oil.

However, according to Petrov, of all the participants in the negotiations - European leaders, Putin, Zelensky and Trump - only the latter is now interested in ending the war. He, the political scientist believes, needs a spectacular gesture and the opportunity to announce the completion of the conflict. Putin, the interlocutor of New-Europe, believes, is sure that “he is doing well and the Russian army presses”, while it is increasingly difficult for Ukraine to restrain the offensive. Zelensky, as a leader of a warring country, cannot afford his concessions: any of them will turn into accusations of betrayal, Petrov believes: “They ( concessions - approx. Ed. ) Will hang on it, like the Minsk agreements on Poroshenko.”

Political scientist Nikolai Petrov suggests that Trump may try to get an agreement on the termination of air strikes. In his opinion, that is why Russia has recently strengthened attacks on civilian objects, so that against this background such a proposal "looked very humane and appropriate." At the same time, Petrov believes, it will be difficult for Ukraine to abandon this option.

“Although it is in the air that there is a certain parity, and Russia is experiencing more and more damage and discomfort from Ukrainian air strikes,” the political scientist notes.

WSJ: occupation of four regions

During a meeting with Trump, Putin may offer that Russia officially controls part of the territory of Ukraine occupied by it in exchange for the withdrawal of its troops from other units of Ukraine, the publication of The Wall Street Journal reported with reference to a senior European diplomat and Ukrainian official. If Russia agrees, then Trump can strongly recommend that Ukraine and its allies also support his idea.

An unnamed Ukrainian official in a conversation with WSJ also stated that Kyiv and the EU politicians will reject this plan. Such a decision will play into Putin, because Trump will be able to accuse Ukraine of continuing the hostilities. Moreover, in this case, the United States can stop the military support of Ukraine and withdraw from the diplomatic process.

At the same time, The Telegraph noted that Ukraine may agree to a truce along the front line, but will still oppose the international recognition of Russia's control over the occupied regions.

Bloomberg: Crossing the air in the air

The main theme of the conversation between the US specialist, Stephen Witkoff and Vladimir Putin, according to Bloomberg, could be a partial ceasefire. In particular, the publication writes that Russia can offer an aircraft priests if Ukraine does the same, but will continue the blows on Earth. The publication emphasizes that Russia will not agree to a complete ceasefire in Ukraine, since its troops continue confident advance on the battlefield, and military goals remain unchanged.

As the political consultant Sergey Markov, close to the Kremlin, noted , “Trump needs a kind of“ gift ”, a concession from Russia,” so the stop of air strikes “could become” such.

The Guardian also indicated : there were unconfirmed messages that the Kremlin could offer Trump to stop imprisoning a long distance from Russia and Ukraine.

At the same time, the senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center for the Study of Russia and Eurasia, Alexander Baunov, wrote that Trump can offer the idea of ​​a moratorium on blows into each other's territory. This "will reduce the number of civilian casualties, eliminate the painful picture of hits in Ukrainian cities far from the front line - primarily in Kyiv or Odessa." Therefore, according to Baunov, in the Kremlin there is a hope that Trump will accept such an offer.

Political analyst Alexander Morozov, in a conversation with the New Evrop, called the possible meeting of Putin and Trump the form of "summing up the entire six-month peacekeeping campaign of Trump." In his opinion, after it, the American president "will only have to impose sanctions and participate in the defense of Ukraine." At the same time, for Putin “such a summit is another opportunity to inform Trump that four regions of Ukraine belong to Russia and there will be no exchange”.

“Can Putin agree to a ceasefire for several days? Yes. But this will not change anything in the script of this war and does not lead to a full-scale termination of fire and any agreement. In other words, if the Kremlin in the next few days does not offer Trump something serious, then the meeting will either not take place at all or take place, but will mean the complete completion of Trump’s peacekeeping initiative, ”Morozov is sure.