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A thousand two hundred and sixty -fifth day. Negotiations in Alaska: What will Putin demand and what does Trump need? What conditions does Ukraine put forward? What does Europe do?
Medusa from February 24, 2022 lives on the Russian-Ukrainian war on the air. In our daily materials, we publish your letters because we are sure: we must continue to talk about the war. Do you believe that the upcoming meeting of Putin and Trump is a harbinger of the soon world or at least a ceasefire? Look for a feedback form at the end of this article. A review of the previous day can be read here .
World
On Friday, August 15, in Alaska, a meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump will be held in Alaska. They will talk about the cessation of the Russian-Ukrainian war. We tell you that it is known about their starting positions in negotiations - as well as what Ukraine and the countries of Europe require.
What does Putin require?
The President of Russia, judging by leaks in the Western media, puts forward the following requirements.
- Ukraine withdraws its troops from the Donetsk region.
- After that, in the remaining regions of Ukraine, fighting ceases along the current line of the front.
- Then Putin and Trump coordinate the final peace plan.
- At the last stage, the plan is discussed with Zelensky.
Putin, thus, is not going to take on any obligations, except for a complete ceasefire in exchange for the entire Donetsk region.
According to Financial Times, the meeting itself with Trump without the participation of Vladimir Zelensky can already be considered a diplomatic victory of the Kremlin. Analysts interviewed by the publication believe that the main thing for Putin is to maintain a personal dialogue with Trump. It is important for the President of the Russian Federation to keep his attention and prevent his discontent, which can cost Russia economically in case of tightening sanctions.
Last week, he already succeeded - before the expiration of the ultimatum Trump Putin, he held negotiations with his messenger Stephen Whitkoff and “instead of new problems received the first invitation to America to meet with the US President,” FT notes.
In Moscow, the conditions with which Putin will go to negotiations will not officially comment on. The President of Russia a few days ago publicly repeated that his requirements remain unchanged. Among them is the international recognition of the sovereignty of the Russian Federation over five Ukrainian regions (these are Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions within their administrative borders), as well as the refusal of Ukraine to join NATO.
What does Trump need?
The main declared goal of the US president is in any way to achieve a ceasefire in order to fulfill his election promises, and he believes that a personal meeting with Putin will contribute to this.
As notes in its editorial column The Washington Post, traditionally to any summit, most details are worked out at a lower level, and the meeting of the heads of state is the result of all these efforts. However, Trump acts differently, believing that only he himself is able to ensure a breakthrough in negotiations.
According to the publication, in Alaska, Trump can achieve from Russia an understanding that Ukraine, after the cessation of hostilities, should be well armed in any case to reflect a possible new attack.
Senator Lindsay Graham, one of the authors of the bill on secondary sanctions against Moscow, expressed a similar position. According to him, Trump's main goal in any future transaction will be to obtain guarantees that Russia will never be able to attack Ukraine again.
US Vice-President Jay Di Wans on Sunday stated that Trump’s main task is to “reduce together” Putin and Zelensky and eventually achieve peace. Washington’s goal, Vance said, to stop spending money on Ukraine’s support and stop the war taking into account the current front line. At the same time, Trump doubts the success of the summit, Vance said - but "considers it necessary to give negotiations a chance."
Sources in the White House emphasized that the very fact of Trump's consent to the meeting does not mean that some kind of agreement has already been reached between Russia and the USA. The Trump team wrote the Politico publication, continues non -public consultations with Ukraine and Europe about the conditions of the ceasefire.
What conditions does Ukraine put forward?
In Kyiv, they insist that no decisions on peaceful settlement can be made without the participation of Ukraine itself. “Any decisions that are without Ukraine - they are simultaneously decisions against the world. They will not give anything. These are dead decisions, they will never work, ”President Vladimir Zelensky said on Saturday.
According to the American media, Zelensky’s participation in negotiations in Alaska is still not excluded, it is considered by the White House officials as one of the options. First of all, Washington plans a bilateral meeting - at the request of Putin, but it is assumed that the president of Ukraine will also arrive at Alaska and take part in some meetings. It is unclear whether in this case the possibility of meeting Zelensky with Putin is considered.
Soon after the summit was announced, Ukraine, along with its European allies, presented its version of a possible settlement to the White House. According to The Wall Street Journal, it is as follows:
- Full ceasefire - first of all.
- The exchange of territories should occur only on a mutual basis.
- If Ukraine goes to any territorial concessions, it will receive tough security guarantees, including possible membership in NATO.
At the same time, Officially, Zelensky continues to insist that Ukraine will not transfer its territories to Russia in exchange for a peace agreement. On Saturday, he recalled that the “answer to the territorial question” has already been recorded in the Constitution of Ukraine, which does not provide for the rejection of territories. “No one will and will not be able to deviate from this. The Ukrainians will not give their land, ”he said.
How do European countries work?
They will not be presented in the negotiations on August 15. Now in the EU, with the help of public statements, they are trying to put pressure on Trump, demanding the participation of Europeans in making decisions at least on territorial issues.
“We cannot allow any circumstances that territorial issues are discussed or resolved through the heads of Europeans and Ukrainians. And I assume that the American government sees it the same, ” said German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz on Sunday. The head of European diplomacy of Kallas made a similar statement: “Ukraine and the European Union should be involved in any deal between the United States and Russia because it is a matter of security of Ukraine and all of Europe.”
Another primary issue for Europe is future guarantees of the security of Ukraine. “The most reliable guarantee would be the lack of restrictions on the number of Ukrainian army and its support to third countries,” the unnamed representative of the EU told Financial Times.
On Sunday, the leaders of the largest European countries have issued an official statement "The Way to the World in Ukraine cannot be laid without Ukraine." It said that the EU was ready to support Trump's efforts to achieve the world - both diplomatic means and continuing military assistance to Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia.
This statement, as analysts note, may indicate a shift in the European position. It, in particular, for the first time contained a reservation that "the current line of contact should be a starting point for negotiations." Thus, the possibility of territorial changes is allowed. In Europe, they also changed their position on the conditions of the beginning of a peaceful settlement: if earlier the EU required a complete ceasefire, now they admit that there will be enough “reduction” of the intensity of military operations.
Today, the European Union will hold an emergency summit of foreign ministers at which it is planned to work out a joint strategy for the EU participation in a peaceful settlement. According to Bloomberg, the leaders of European countries are hoping to negotiate with Trump before he meets Putin.
Podkast "What happened" - about expectations from the summit in Alaska
War through the eyes of readers "Medusa"
How do we choose letters
Readers "Medusa" live in different countries and treat war differently. We publish your letters to see this event with your eyes. Our editors try to present all points of view, even if they do not coincide with the position of the editorial office. However, in accordance with the Medusa Code, we do not publish messages that contain the “language of hatred”, the murder of civilians is justified, and direct support for an aggressive war is expressed.
Vasily (Russia) . I do not believe [that the summit of Putin and Trump will bring the end of the war closer]. Talking about the ceasefire, if I am not mistaken, go from last fall. At the same time, it was always obvious that the populist slogans and the image of the peasant president, who could stop the war with only a performance, are more important for Trump. The Kremlin is all the time, they are ready to stop fire, but under impossible conditions, we are ready to meet, but not now, we will not stop, but to suspend the war (how is it at all?!)
Trump said that if the oil has become cheaper for another 10 dollars, then Putin will be forced to stop. I don’t believe in this either - this is the position of a calculating businessman, but does Trump understand what is dealing not with a similar to himself, but with an ideologically motivated fanatic? As if he does not understand. Putin is uninteresting in the economy, our situation is similar to that sad joke: “I will not drink less, but you will eat less.”
I agree with the opinion that if the sanctions that have been imposed now happened in 2014, then it might not have been what we see. But this did not happen. I'm afraid that now we are on the verge of something like that. They can accept some half measures that will only delay (and aggravate) the resolution of the conflict.
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