What will the Israeli plan for the occupation of the Gaza

Novyevropa understands how the sector can change after the war and what awaits the remaining hostages

After 22 months of the war with Hamas, the Military-Political Cabinet of Ministers of Israel approved a plan for complete control over the city of Gaza. The discussion began on the evening of August 7 and lasted ten hours. The decision caused disputes both inside the coalition and in society: the head of the General Staff and the hostage family considers the plan potentially dangerous for the life of the Israelis held by the militants. The forum of the hostage families called for a general strike on August 17.

The Israeli government continues to declare the desire to achieve the main announced military goals: the destruction of Hamas and the release of the 50 remaining hostages, including the transfer of the bodies of the dead. What will the occupation of the city of gas lead to whether this will help in the fight against Hamas and what the families of Israeli hostages think about it - in the material of the Novaya Gazeta Europe.

Disputes around the occupation plan

The ministers gave the majority of votes for the proposal of the prime minister of the country Benjamin Netanyahu. It includes five principles for the end of the war:

1. The disarmament of Hamas.

2. The return of all hostages - both living and dead.

3. Demilitarization of the gas sector.

4. Israeli safety control in the gas sector.

5. The formation of an alternative civil administration, not associated with either Hamas or with the Palestinian administration.

“The Israeli defense army will prepare for the control of the city of gas, while providing humanitarian assistance to the civilian population outside the war zone,” the office of the head of the Israeli government said.

Israeli military already control about 75% of the sector.

Inside Israel, opinions were divided. For each point of the plan, a vote was carried out. In particular, the ministers and the extreme right-wing allies for the coalition of Netanyahu Botsalel Smaych and Itamar Ben-Gvir opposed a point allowing large-scale humanitarian assistance. The Minister of Finance Smotych was completely disappointed, seeing in this decision a loud statement rather than the real plan for the occupation.

“This is not an operation to capture the gas sector, establish complete military control over the territory and achieve a decisive result - the only way to ensure victory, long -term security and the return of hostages - and a concrete and dangerous operation, the only purpose of which is to return Hamas at the negotiating table,” the statement said .

The chief of the General Staff DSAL AEAL ZARIM was against the decision on the occupation. Earlier, he presented the political leadership of two alternatives to expand the military operation in the gas sector: the complete conquest of the entire territory of the enclave or the environment of the sector with regular point raids designed to deplete Hamas. At the same time, Zamir tried to convince Netanyahu to accept a more moderate war plan. He explained that the military has no way to guarantee the safety of hostages in the event of battles in the zone where they are held. In addition, he paid attention to the fact that the Israeli military was exhausted after almost two years of the war.

According to media reports , Zamir expected the army to unfold around large settlements in those areas that the IDF does not fully control, and from there would be carried out by raids, gradually limiting the capabilities of Hamas for maneuver and reducing the risk for hostages.

- However, they objected that such a plan has already been applied and has not yet led to positive results. Whereas a complete sector’s capture can be more effective and will make it possible to final defeat Hamas, ”military journalist Sergei Ausleder comments for Novo-European. - At the same time, there is no talk of the annexation of the region. Also, the Netanyahu plan does not imply long -term occupation. The capture of the gas sector should be temporary.

The leader of the opposition, the head of the Esh Atid party, Yair Lapid called the decision "disaster, which will lead to many new disasters."

“In complete contradiction with the opinion of the army and security forces, without taking into account the wear and depletion of combat units, Ben-Gvir and Skishich, they dragged Netanyahu into actions that will take up many months, lead to the deaths of hostages, to large losses among the soldiers, they will cost Israeli taxpayers ten billions and lead to a political collapse,” the statement said in a statement said Lapida.

In his opinion, the decision on the occupation is responsible for the expectations of Hamas, who "wanted Israel to be stuck on the territory without a goal, without determining the picture" day after ", in the useless occupation."

Netanyahu: "Hamas will fall apart without a gase"

On the evening of August 10, Netanyahu spoke at a press conference, commenting on Israel's plans to continue military operations in the gas sector. The prime minister said that he wants to end the war as soon as possible, but his plan for the capture of the city of Gaza is the only way to achieve from Hamas the liberation of all 50 hostages still held in the sector.

Netanyahu said that Israel has no intention of occupying the sector.

“The war can end tomorrow if Hamas puts up the weapon and free all the remaining hostages,” he said.

According to him, the enclave is demilitarized, and Israel will bear the main responsibility for safety, on the border of the sector with Israel they will create a zone to prevent future terrorist invasions, Gaza will be headed by a civil administration that will strive for peaceful coexistence with Israel.

He also called the "absurd" faith of some world leaders that Palestinian statehood would solve the problems of the region. “Palestinians do not seek to create a state, they seek to destroy the state,” he said.

Netanyahu added that the Palestinian administration (PA) is not considered as an acceptable version of power in the post -war Gaza sector. The prime minister accused Pa of encouraging terrorist activities against Israel. He later stated that the administration ultimately pursues the same goal as Hamas: to destroy Israel, reports The Times of Israel.

The Prime Minister of Israel said that the IDF was instructed to “eliminate the two remaining Hamas’s strongholds in the city of Gaza and the central camps” of the sector.

“Israel will begin the implementation of the plan, first providing the civilian with the opportunity to safely leave the combat zones and move to certain zones. In these zones they will be provided with a sufficient amount of food, water and medical care, ”he said during a meeting with reporters.

Netanyahu described the city of Gaza as “the last real fortress of Hamas” and added that “Hamas would fall apart without it.

What Israeli control will look like

According to the Israeli edition of Walla, the political leadership is expected to have ordered the IDF to mobilize six divisions for the occupation of the city of Gas and the central camps - territories that are not under the control of Israel. The highest command has fears that as a result of the operation, the army will be responsible for the sector’s population, but the political leadership clarified that at the late stage of occupation, international forces can enter the gas sector to take responsibility for the Palestinants.

The military observer David Sharp also believes that the operation may require the participation of three to five DSAL divisions.

-The experience of the current war and the Operations of the “Chariots of Gideon” shows that at the most intense moments they used up to four to five divisions of the Israeli defense army. This has currently controlled up to 70 percent of the territory of the Exclave, ”he says in a conversation with the New Evrop.

The combined arms operation, according to the expert, can begin with the north of the sector, for example, from the city of Gaza and its environs, and advance south. Whereas the central camps of Nuyserat and Deir El-Balah will leave them to later stages. Until now, there has not yet been stripped in these camps and the troops have not fully entered there.

With the complete occupation of the inhabitants of the Exclave, they will “move” into special humanitarian zones, such as Al Muashi (coast of the Gaza Sector), Sharp says. After the establishment of control over the sector, the destruction of Hamas’s power, the disarmament of the local population, the elimination of tunnels, weapons warehouses and other infrastructure of militants, the power in exclus can transfer to international organizations, Arab states or local clans and police operating in coordination with Israel, such as the formation of Yasir Abhabab in the Rafias region on the border with Egypt.

The military expert, a former employee of the special services and police of Israel, Sergei Migdal, explains in a commentary for the New Evrop that the creation of a new Exercise management apparatus is one of the points of the phased establishment of control over the sector’s territory-will be organized using the Arab states that also advocate for the complete destruction of Hamas’s power. The Netanyahu government, he says, cannot end the war without eliminating Hamas's power.

- An alternative to this decision is a surrender with far -reaching consequences, which the current head of Israel cannot afford in any way. At the same time, there is an understanding that the complete occupation of the sector further increases the risk for the lives of hostages held by militants. Hamas does not make a deal, including the release of some of the hostages, since he believes that the Israeli side twice deceived the expectations of the terrorists who consisted in the full stop of the war. And although Israel never made such a promise, there is an opinion that American representatives through intermediaries claimed that the final cessation of hostilities was possible, ”says Migdal.

Military expert David Handelman emphasizes that the Military Political Cabinet did not make a decision to capture the entire gas sector, but only to control the city of the same name.

- For the preparation, evacuation of the population to the south and the occupation of key positions in the city is given two months. As a mark, a symbolic date was chosen on October 7, a full capture of the city and the stripping will take more time. The remaining statements of the cabinet about the demilitarization of the gas sector and the Israeli military control in the sector are now only a declaration, and not a real operational decision, ”said the interlocutor of Novo-Europe.

He explains that in fact, this decision to expand military operations to strengthen pressure on Hamas in negotiations on hostages. The expert notes that the Israeli government continues to set two contradictory goals: the overthrow of Hamas and the liberation of hostages.

- During the intended operation, the risk for the remaining hostages is growing; The expansion of military operations also means the growth of losses and loads on personnel, already exhausted by almost a two-year war, but the goal is still not decisive, ”he says.

“The idea of ​​the complete occupation of the sector causes sharply negative emotions among many citizens of Israel,” says Sharp. - You can even talk about a historical psycho -trauma caused by attempts to control the exchanger earlier.

However, it must be understood that if the goal of the complete defeat of Hamas remains on the agenda, then there are only two options for the victory of Israel: either the full occupation of the entire sector, or the surrender of Hamas.

The script with surrender, in my opinion, is possible only if the terrorists believe in Israel’s determination to bring the matter to complete control over the sector. In this case, some bonuses are waiting for the militants. For example, the release of a significant number of terrorists from Israeli prisons. At the same time, the militants must completely disarm and leave the territory of the exclus. However, so far there is no talk of such surrender, ”the expert adds.

Handelman believes that the government is now taking intermediate options for "for political, psychological, sociological and other reasons."

The reaction of the hostage families

Relatives of Israeli hostages took the decision of the Netanyahu government as a rejection of the plan to release them from the sector. They emphasize that the country's military leadership has repeatedly warned about the risks associated with occupation.

“Hamas continues to use military escalation as an excuse for his brutal handling with our loved ones. Choosing a military escalation instead of negotiations, we leave our relatives for the mercy of Hamas - a villainous terrorist organization, which systematically swell hostages with hunger and subjected them to severe treatment, ”the hostage families said in the forum.

In their appeal, they reminded the hostages of Evetar David and Roma Breslavsky . The terrorists abducted them from the Nova music festival on October 7, 2023, and recently shown personnel in which young people look exhausted and tortured.

Families also emphasized that it took almost a year after Hamas killed six Israeli hostages, when the soldiers fried unintentionally approached the tunnel, where they were kept.

“Our government leads us to a colossal disaster for both hostages and our soldiers,” they added in the forum, demanding an immediate conclusion of the transaction with Hamas.

On Saturday evening, tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Tel Aviv and other cities of Israel with a demand to immediately conclude a deal to release hostages and cease fire in the sector.

In addition, hostage families were called to hold a general strike. They directly turned to large working groups with a request to support their initiative. “This Sunday, August 17, Israel is striking. Hundreds of thousands of enterprises, technological companies, organizations and citizens have already joined us, ”they said.

The union of trade unions, representing 800 thousand workers, decided not to join the strike so far. Nevertheless, its chairman Arnon Bar-David and employers will support the action of solidarity.

“These 675 days of captivity and war should end. The scream of 80% of the Israelis who want to return them to all at once and put an end to the war remains unheated, ”the release of the forum of the hostage families said.

A public opinion survey

The Kan-11 TV channel published on the evening of August 10 the results of a public opinion poll conducted by the Kantar Institute after the government decided to expand the military operations in the gas sector.

According to the results of the survey, if the elections to the Knesset took place today, the Likud party would receive 26 seats in the Knesset, remaining the largest faction. In second place is the party under the leadership of Bennett with 22 mandates. “Our House of Israel” by Avigdor Lieberman is gaining 10 seats.

The block, associated with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is gaining 52 mandates in this situation, while the Bennet -Aisencot block is 57.

To the question "What assessment would you give Benjamin Netanyahu for waging a war in gas?" 31% replied that it was positive, and 60% - which is bad.

54% of the survey participants advocated the complete cessation of hostilities, the withdrawal of the IDF and the release of all hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. 28% supported the expansion of war and the capture of the city of gas. Another 3% chose the option of a “partial transaction”: a temporary ceasefire, the release of some of the hostages and prisoners while maintaining Hamas power. 15% were not determined.

To the question "Do you support a general strike as part of the struggle for the liberation of hostages?" 39% of respondents answered in the affirmative, 43% - negatively and 18% - chose the answer "I do not know."

Criticism in the world

Germany will not allow export to Israel of any military equipment that can be used in the gas sector, the country's chancellor Friedrich Mertz said .

The German government considered that the expansion of hostilities in the sector would only complicate the achievement of Israeli goals for the disarmament of Hamas and the release of hostages.

Mertz called the liberation of Israeli hostages and negotiations on the ceasefire with the main priorities of Germany, expressing deep concern to the suffering of civilians in the gas sector. Netanyahu said that, by introducing a partial embargo for the supply of weapons to Israel, the German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz “surrendered” under the pressure of foreign and internal groups opposing Israel.

After the attack of Hamas, recognized in the European Union and the United States with a terrorist movement, on Israel on October 7, 2023 and the UACL’s active military operations in the Gazal sector, remains one of the main allies of Israel. During this period, by mid -May 2025, Germany approved the export of military equipment to Israel in the amount of 485 million euros. Однако в конце мая министр иностранных дел Германии Йоханн Вадефуль и канцлер Мерц раскритиковали продолжающиеся авиаудары по сектору и дефицит продовольствия и медикаментов.

Премьер-министр Великобритании Кир Стармер призвал Нетаньяху пересмотреть решение о захвате сектора, заявив, что эти действия приведут лишь к большему кровопролитию. Как и Мерц, британский премьер считает, что эскалация конфликта не поможет вернуть израильских заложников.

По мнению Стармера, Израиль и ХАМАС должны договориться о прекращении огня.

«С каждым днем гуманитарный кризис в Газе обостряется, а заложники, захваченные ХАМАСом, содержатся в ужасающих и бесчеловечных условиях. Нам нужны прекращение огня, увеличение объема гуманитарной помощи, освобождение всех заложников ХАМАСа и решение конфликта путем переговоров», — сказал Стармер, добавив, что «дипломатическое решение возможно, но обе стороны должны свернуть с пути разрушения».

Ранее Стармер заявил , что Великобритания признает палестинское государство в сентябре, если Израиль не согласится на прекращение огня. Австралия также заявила о намерении признать Палестину в сентябре «в связи с игнорированием правительством Нетаньяху призывов международного сообщества и неисполнением правовых и этических обязательств в секторе Газа».

В то же время правительство страны добавило, что ХАМАС продолжает подрывать перспективы решения проблемы двух государств и отвергает право Израиля на существование: «ХАМАС должен немедленно, безоговорочно и достойно освободить заложников, жестоко захваченных 7 октября 2023 года. Правительство Австралии неизменно дает понять, что ХАМАС не может играть никакой роли в палестинском государстве».

На этой неделе двое американских чиновников рассказали Axios, что президент США Дональд Трамп не будет вмешиваться в процесс принятия решения об оккупации сектора Газа. Один из собеседников агентства заявил, что на Трампа повлияло видео с израильским заложником Эвьятаром Давидом, на котором его заставляют рыть себе могилу.

Помощник Нетаньяху пояснял журналистам, что решительные меры — это «последняя карта» Израиля, поскольку правительство не намерено оставаться в нынешнем подвешенном состоянии и не готово подчиниться требованиям ХАМАСа.

В то же время администрация Трампа планирует увеличить финансирование Фонда гуманитарной помощи Газы (GHF) с целью открытия новых центров помощи в некоторых районах сектора, куда будут переселены люди, сообщают источники Axios.

Спецпосланник президента США по Ближнему Востоку Стивен Уиткофф в прошлые выходные в сопровождении израильских военных посетил сектор Газа, где провел инспекцию пунктов раздачи гумпомощи. Затем он прибыл на «площадь заложников» у Тель-Авивского музея изобразительных искусств.

Террористические группировки в секторе Газа удерживают 50 заложников, похищенных в ходе нападения ХАМАСа на Израиль 7 октября 2023 года. Среди них тела по меньшей мере 28 погибших, гибель которых подтвердила Армия обороны Израиля. Hamas also holds the body of a soldier of the Israeli defense army, killed in Gaza in 2014.

Министерство здравоохранения сектора Газа, контролируемое ХАМАСом, сообщает, что в результате войны в секторе Газа убиты более 60 тысяч человек. Точной информации, сколько среди них мирных жителей, а сколько боевиков, нет.