Will be like in the past

The forecast of sociologists is sad: the Christian and Islamic parts of the world will be covered by fundamentalist trends for a long time

The author shares with his colleagues and with one of the readers concern that we have some kind of discords with ideas about the future. Studies in which the author had to participate in many cases showed that in the public there are simply no developed ideas about the future. For the author, as for colleagues and like -minded people, it seemed not only strange, but also threatening. Than - let's say at the end.

The absence of concepts, thoughts, ideas about the future among post -Soviet people is far from new matter. Even in the middle of the 1990s, Lev Gudkov* gave this phenomenon a sharp definition: "Abortion of the future." The reasons for this qualification of this phenomenon will be set out below. Now I would like to complete the introductory paragraph indicating that people who are concerned about the lack of considerations in the society about the future or some oddities in these reasons, of course, make up a slight minority. And it unites and distinguishes it from the majority, not thinking about the future, not the presence of ideas about the future or thoughts about it, namely this concern itself.

The elusive future

Another preliminary remark: all considerations about the absence of ideas about the future in the Russian public relate exclusively to that layer of ideas or the modality of ideas and statements that we will call public discourse. We distinguish it from the private discourse. In a public discourse, the expressing or thinking subject has in mind the fate of the state, power, nation, society - the great “we” to which he considers himself. It seems that he should think about his future, but does not think. However, it is known that he does not consider himself able to influence this fate or bear responsibility for it.

In the discourse of a private man, on the contrary, he has in mind his closest environment, for which he is responsible or shares. This is primarily a family. With regard to family, loved ones, their lives may well be built and are built, one or another future is designed or expected, often quite distant - for 10–20-30 years. Sometimes the realities of public existence as a context are involved in building these plans, but this is not a public discourse.

What happened to the future in the past

Lenin, setting out the genealogy of Marxism, commemorated the “utopian socialists”. For their social constructions, there are no places in their life around them, they carried them into another space, the space of “utopia”. Often it was a different space-time-“future”. The idea of communism was made there. Whether there was a “communism” or at least “socialism” what was formed with Lenin and after our land and wider - a question that we will not solve. But we can note that the idea of the future was clogged into this system tightly. Whatever it is called, it was a "state and social system." Since the state, since the system, insofar, the ideas about the time he proposed by the time becomes obligatory, generally accepted, indispensable. As part of them, the idea of the future. The author is not going to say that the entire population of the country believed in communism as a bright future. One could not believe what it is, but this was postulated by the very presence of the future.

The political fiasco CPSU meant the compromising of the idea of communism as a future, i.e. In general, the ideas of the future. But in society, an alternative ideology has ripened in the entire fifties and sixties. She matured as another socialist heresy within the communist social doctrine and social organization.

In the Communist Parties of France and Italy (the largest in those years), in the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia, the idea of “good”, non -impaired socialism, socialism with a human face, and democratic socialism gained doctrinal and organizational forms. In 1968, Soviet socialism with tanks caterpillars sunk his answer to the prague bridge. In the minds of those who survived these events in the USSR with pain, the idea of democratic socialism, socialist democracy began to get rid of the actual socialist component, transforming into the idea of democracy as such, the good of it had many quite successful living examples - democratic societies of Europe. Pure and comfortable, calm and non -poor life ...

And it turned out that the collapse of the ideas of the future that postulated and promised Soviet state socialism was barely passed, Russian society proposed the prospect of the future democratic.

It imagined very close: “500 days” - and we are already there. This is a future, which, unlike socialism and communism, does not even need to be built. It turns out to be

It is natural to become democratic to society, only the constructions of the old social order will be removed. Well, if we “enter the family of European peoples”, we will become a “normal country”.

The author does not want to discuss whether we ourselves did not dare to enter the "European House" or we were not allowed, deceived. The fact is that the democratic prospect has soaked and went somewhere, the democratic future dissolved in some everyday life, ceased to be the future without becoming the present.

For many in the post -Soviet country, this happened painlessly and imperceptibly. But not for everyone. There was a minority composed of completely different people, for which gaping remained, a hole in the place of the future. They asked, so as not to say yelling (but quietly). Their emotions are conveyed by a tough diagnosis of “abortion of the future”.

What happens to the future in the present

The author knows about this from the experience of dozens and dozen group discussions conducted by him throughout the country during the time that we agree to call the “present”. (During this time, for what it turned out, many contemporaries, including the author, should be responsible to the whole world. True, we don’t know how.)

Throughout this “real” time, it was necessary to note the lack of the future in the mass consciousness. Perhaps that is why so much was said about the “stability” by apologists of the system.

And critics said that the ruling elite did not need anything but to preserve their positions. Therefore, they do not need any future and they do not offer it to anyone or impose it.

In these blessed years, respondents on group discussions in the logical order could neither say or draw anything if they were asked to portray the best future for Russia. Except: "It will be like now." And the worst was readily represented in two or three versions: a nuclear war, that is, the end of the world, the civil war and the collapse of Russia, which is also the end of the world.

True, closer to our days, the option of a good future began to appear: a world in which there is only Russia. And no one else.

It is noteworthy that the authors of such versions presented them with some embarrassment, and refused to explain how they came to such a vision of the future. This speaks of a guess that worshiping in the mass consciousness that this is conceived somewhere “there”, and we can’t know this.

What will happen to the present in the future

When three years ago the present became truly real, the ideas about the future were sharply concretized. At the head of the country is the one who is at the head of the country. Regarding the policy of internal from it, more strict or stiffness is expected. And about the events and actions outside the country, a wide variety of options appeared. And although the general state of mass consciousness has changed very little over these three years, imagination about the future experienced several transformations.

One of the main issues regarding the future was the question - how much he will last.

At the very beginning of this period, the answers were frequent - “several months”, or even less. Interestingly, such answers have become frequent now. They include a premonition of what these people mean by the words "the victory of Russia." And they understand this not some military events, but a moral and political fact: Russia is recognized as a winner. Or at least considers himself a winner.

But we were inquired how, according to people, it would be a map of Europe in the case of “Victory of Russia”. At first, the answers were very frequent in the spirit that it was necessary to "reach Lisbon." Then this thought left, but another appeared: "It is necessary to restore the union." Well, not the whole, but the European part, that is, add Ukraine, Moldova and the Baltic states. Very rarely, but they said that the Russian Empire should be restored. It meant - also Finland.

Sometimes especially educated recalled Yalta and said: then they gave to Eastern Europe to Stalin, which means that it should be ours.

Closer to the current days, the picture of the future began to narrow to the notions that Russia was growing four regions introduced into the Constitution. So the majority believes. Less commonly, but quite often, there are ideas that all of Ukraine, except for the western one, goes to Russia. They don’t want to take Western, they are afraid - "they will never agree." The memory of resistance in those parts is quite alive. (True, they also say about central Ukraine that there they will “be partisan”.) About Western Ukraine there is a firm belief that Poland will “take it”, or “Poland and all sorts of others will tear to pieces that belonged to them before”.

Recently, unclear ideas about the presence of the United States in Ukraine appear. But otherwise, in these reasoning, as you can see, the main basis for designing the future is the past.

In addition to reasoning about the accession of Ukrainian and any other lands to Russia, there are no other ideas about the fate of Russia in the future in the mass consciousness. What Russia will live, they do not think. If you persistently ask, they recognize that "do not leave the export of oil and gas."

The increments of wealth from the attached territories if they are waiting (there is coal, there are good soils ...), then not soon. In the near future, on the contrary, the money will go there for recovery.

How will we live here? And as it is now.

From the author

The author wants, taking this opportunity, to add some of his own considerations about the future. According to his ideas,

That part of the world that is connected with Christianity and Islam as the foundations of culture, for the next few decades will be covered by fundamentalist trends.

Fundamentalism produces similar effects both in post -industrial and pre -industrial societies, and the world will more and more will show their mix. Fundamentalism will formalize various types of reactions of societies to stormy social transformations of the last century. The similarity of the social background of processes in different countries will provoke the discord between them, but also create the possibility of unions and associations that now seem unthinkable.

In relation to Russia, the author notes with anxiety that the process of disappearance of the phenomenon of the Russian intelligentsia, marked by L. Gudkov (in collaboration with B. Dubin) several decades ago, is approaching the end. And in this regard, the question arises: will a new social force arise, will the new social institution develop to take the function of reproduction and maintaining those cultural structures that are called the honor and conscience of society?

The whole report
A large expert study of the laboratory of the future “Novaya Gazeta” can be bought at the “For dear people” telegram store , we released a report with a separate brochure.