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On September 8, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou will speak on the floor and then put his government's credibility to a vote. After this, the deputies of the National Assembly will take turns voting for a vote of no confidence in Bairu's cabinet.
The voting result will be known by approximately 19:00 local time (18:00 Moscow and Kyiv time), said Assembly Chairman Yael Braun-Piwe.
If the MP passes a vote of no confidence in Bairu's government, he will have to resign. This will be the fifth such case during Emmanuel Macron's second term in office from 2022 and the third in 2025. Previously, Republican Michel Barnier, who served as prime minister for three months, was removed from power.
Barnier also broke the record for the shortest tenure as head of a French government since the creation of the Fifth Republic in 1958. This record was previously held by Bernard Cazeneuve during the government of Francois Hollande: he served in office for almost six months and left after Macron won the presidential election in 2017.
It is expected that the far-right National Rally, as well as a number of left parties, including France Unconquered, will vote for no confidence in the Bayrou government.
Political scientist and editor of the “Hello Macron” channel Alexander Listratov noted in a commentary to DOXA that “the result is a foregone conclusion,” and after the meeting, Bairu will most likely cease to be prime minister.
According to Listratov, during the six months of his premiership, Bayrou did not fulfill a single promise given to various political forces, whose support allowed him to take office. In particular, he promised the Socialist Party the opportunity to revise the pension reform.
However, there was no vote on revising the measure introduced by Macron’s government. This led to Bayro's loss of support from the socialist:k.
“The voting began due to the fact that society is dissatisfied with the serious budget cuts proposed by Bayrou for the next year, the abolition of holidays - that is, an increase in the number of working days and a decrease in the attractiveness of work,” the political scientist said.
In addition, according to Listratov, the reason for dissatisfaction with the French women was cuts in the field of medicine and education, as well as the lack of a plan to improve the economic situation in the country.
Listratov associates Bayrou's decision to initiate a vote of confidence in his government with the mass strikes on September 10, which are expected to take place throughout the country. Under these conditions, the prime minister wanted to confirm his legitimacy.
Discussing what could happen after Bayrou's resignation, Listratov suggested that centrist forces under the auspices of Macron will try to negotiate with the Socialist Party and gain its support, especially in the context of the collapse of the New Popular Front, a coalition of left-wing parties in parliament.
In addition, the dissolution of parliament is also possible, since now the main political forces cannot cooperate with each other to form coalitions and a government.
According to polls, the far-right National Rally may benefit from this decision, gaining about 31% of the vote. This situation does not suit the forces loyal to Macron, Listratov noted.