The IEA doubted the early peak of the demand for energy resources

The annual report, which is now being prepared by the International Energy Agency (IEA), is no longer so unconditionally promoting the idea of ​​the onset of peak demand for oil by the end of the decade, the energy transition and the end of the era of fossil energy resources, Bloomberg found out .

The Mea itself for several years represented peak oil as complete inevitability. However, the inertial scenario (Current Policy Scenario), to the publication of which the agency returned, proceeds from the fact that oil and gas consumption in the world will grow smoothly for another 25 years - along with greenhouse emissions.

This is a very important change, including the pressure of the Donald Trump administration, writes Bloomberg. The inertial scenario in the World Energy Outlook has not been since 2020, graphs were published instead of it, taking into account not yet implemented proposals on the energy policy (Stated Policies Scenario) and taking into account the declared climatic obligations (AnnouNced playdges Scenario). Both gave the peak of demand for fossil energy resources around 2030 and the fall after.

In the new script, a very smooth peak of oil occurs somewhere in 2050, the peak of coal consumption-somewhere in the 2030s. The growth of oil demand in the next quarter century will be very slow, but constant, and all this time it will remain the main fuel of the world economy. In numbers, this is, respectively, 114 million b/s by the middle of the century in the inertial scenario, 93 million b/s in moderately optimistic and 54 million b/s in super -ptimistic.

What now?

In the fresh September report, the IEA slightly increased the prognosis of the growth of oil demand in the world to 740 thousand b/s from 700 thousand b/s and stated a slight impact of enhanced sanctions on oil production in Iran and Russia. According to the organization’s calculations, oil production in the world will grow by 2.7 million b/s, to 105.8 million b/s, in 2025 and 2.1 million b/s, to 107.9 million b/s, in 2026.