Auto industry in storm

What to wait for the industry if sales of cars in Russia fall, prices are rising, and the authorities are preparing new taxes and utilsbor

The Russian car market comes to life after a failure of the first half of the year, but at the end of the year, a fall in sales will still be a third. While prices in car dealerships crawl up, the authorities come up with new ways to replenish the budget at the expense of motorists, for example, they are going to increase vehicles over 15 years old and cancel the preferential utilities. Novyevropa says that the industry is waiting in the near future and what measures can really affect the market.

From the editorial office:
This material was first published on the website of the Wind project.

The perfect storm

In 2025, the Russian car market shows a significant drop in sales. The first half of the year was especially sad for sellers. Sales fell by 27% compared to the same period last year, amounting to 546 thousand cars.

The reason for this was the sum of negative factors that turned together at the beginning of the year, the head of the Avtostat analytical agency Sergei Tselikov told the wind.

- We call it the perfect storm. The first factor - they raised a strong key rate. And it became more profitable to store money in banks at high interest rates. The second factor - at the beginning of the year Trump came, and the conversations began, or maybe the brands will return. Some of the people went into the standby mode, we call them "Zhduna." The third factor - almost 500 thousand cars were at the beginning of the year in warehouses, dealers began to reduce prices. And when the price is reduced, a person is waiting even more: you need to wait, dig money, interest in banks are good, and in the meantime the price will decrease even more.

According to Tselikov,

Sales of cars began to fall from February-March, then about 90 thousand cars per month were sold, which is very small. In the segment of cars in eight months of the year, the fall was 23%,

Auto expert notes.

Almost a third from the beginning of the year, sales of new Chinese cars fell, followed from the Avtostat Info data. Most of all, a decrease in sales affected the most popular Chinese models in Russia: HAVAL, Chery, Geely, Changan.

“Despite the fact that Chinese brands continue to dominate the market, the dynamics indicates the gradual cooling of demand,” said analysts of Autostat Info.

According to the results of the year, the fall in sales of new cars is predicted about 18–20%. 1 million 250 thousand units will be sold, Tselikov notes. The total drop in sales of new cars, including trucks, buses and others, will reach 25-30%, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia Anton Alikhanov predicts .

But mileage machines are sold relatively good. Sales here are held at the level of last year, when about 3.8 million cars were sold . For the first half of the year, prices for popular models with mileage decreased by 5-10%. And some models of discounts now reach 15%. Only at the end of summer prices stopped and stopped falling. In August, the market for used cars added 2% to last year.

- Historically, they buy more cars with mileage, not only with us, but everywhere: in America, in Europe - in any country. Waste cars in the world are sold at two, three, four times more than new ones. The same thing in Russia. Now, in our country, this ratio has changed a little towards the mileage, that is, now for one new car-about four with mileage. And recently the situation has not changed. That is, I do not see that people began to buy mileage machines more often, this trend was formed in 2022 and remains, ”Tselikov notes.

September will be good

Today, the situation in the car market begins to change. The market is slowly but surely stabilizing, sales creep up. In August, 122 thousand new cars were sold , which is 18% less than in August last year. But significantly more than in the spring and summer of this year.

-In July-August, sales are already 35–37% higher than in the first half of the year. If we compare this with the best times that were in Russia until 2014, then, of course, everything is bad and nothing is stabilized. But when compared with the first half of 2025, then everything is wonderful. September will also be good, - Tselikov notes.

Sales come to life, confirms the auto-expert and author of the YouTube channel “Petrovich Auto” Denis Ossetsky.

- I predict that in the fall there will be a rise in demand for cars, including used ones. The first reason is seasonal. Always on autumn autumn, the beginning of winter is a rise in sales. Because in the fall, after vacations, after sending children to school, people are puzzled by the purchase of a car. The second reason is associated with the interest rate. Last year, in September, when banks began to offer favorable conditions for deposits, many put money on long -term deposits, often annual deposits. And the terms are pumped, the interest rate falls, people withdraw money. And this is reflected in the automotive industry.

As the third reason, Osetsky calls more loyal conditions on loans. It became easier to get them. Today, according to him, 30–40% of Russians buy cars on credit, 5–7%, mainly business owners, take them in leasing.

- It is easier for people to pay a loan or leasing than to accumulate 3-5 million. And if until recently it was tough, many were not given loans, the interest rate reached 35%, now the banks are more loyal. It’s easier to get a loan

- notes Osetsky.

Take or not take?

Over the past three years, after leaving the Russian car market of European and Asian brands, cars have risen on average by half. But the limit was achieved. And in the summer, car dealers offered significant discounts on new cars.

The “buyer market” is still preserved today, experts say. The maximum peak of discounts has been passed, cars will not be cheaper more, Tselikov predicts:

- There are minimum prices for new cars. Because a strong ruble, low demand, and reserves in the warehouses of dealers are very large and they need to sell them. But for a week we have been seeing that the ruble is beginning to devalue. Accordingly, a little earlier, a little later, but the entire new purchase of cars will go already at a different course. Second: the drains are sold quite thoroughly. That is, the old machines that need to be sold are already very few, less than a month of stock. And dealers no longer have a terrible need to make discounts of 500 thousand, or even a million. Therefore, with every week, not even a month, discounts will leave and leave. Accordingly, prices will rise.

According to the auto expert, today large discounts remained only on non -way models. For used cars, prices also begin to grow.

- There are no precedents for prices to fall. On the contrary, the demand will increase, the ratio of the ruble to the dollar does not fall, and, even if there is a small fall, no one will recalculate the price. The rise in prices will be, but not rapid, ”says Denis Osetsky.

"Where is the money, Zin?"

The car is becoming more and more expensive every year. And if in 2012 every third Russian could afford a new car, today only every sixth, said the head of the Russian Automobile Dealers Association, Alexei Podchekoldin.

The solvency of the population falls, and the cost of maintaining the car is only growing. Gasoline is getting more expensive, and recently in a number of regions there are interruptions with fuel. However, according to the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, the situation is under control. The average price of gasoline at gas stations in Russia rose from August 25 to September 1 by 0.3%, or by 19 kopecks, up to 62.27 rubles per liter. However, motorists have other information. In the Krasnodar Territory, a liter of 95th gasoline costs 72 rubles. There is no gasoline in Severodonetsk at all, users report in social networks:

“Is everything under control? In Saransk, the capital of Mordovia, Benz at one gas station in the whole city. ”

“A bad controller from him. The 95th went up for a month by 15 rubles approximately, ”users write.

- Since the beginning of the year, gasoline in Kaliningrad has risen on average by 10 rubles per liter. We have no interruptions with fuel, but I do not exclude what will be soon, ”says motorist Natalya.

-Now the liter of the 92nd costs about 63 rubles, the 95th-about 67. And it was 53 and 57 in January. Prices are rising in general for everything. As for the body repair, for example, I had a small accident in the spring, I had to make two elements. Previously, one element cost 15 thousand, now they barely fit 75. For now I’m taking 40 thousand with me, before it was 15–20.

According to Natalia, she does not plan to change her Hyundai 2018 Hyundai:

“I bought it a new one, in the cabin.” Now I will not change in any way, I will go until it falls apart. There is nothing to change now - not to the Chinese. Why do I need a bucket for 2-3 million, which will rot in a couple of years?

In the fall of 2024, Russian powerful collection of utilization fees almost doubled . As a result, prices for cars rose in equivalent by more than 650 thousand rubles.

-I have KIA of the 21st year. Gasoline is 65 rubles now. About 70 thousand a year run up, ”says a resident of Novosibirsk Sergey. - Service - about 30 thousand per year, and OSAGO - an average of about 8 thousand, CASCO - from 30. And add also depreciation, taxes. The car now from the vehicle becomes a luxury. It is unrealistic to change it - loans with a horse interest. Yes, and I do not want a Chinese or "Lada", I have a prejudice against these cars.

Due to a decrease in demand, a third of car dealers today experience serious financial difficulties and are on the verge of closing. Two hundred dealerships in the first half of the year have already closed. To raise sales of new cars, the authorities come up with new initiatives. One of the last Road proposed is to introduce a tax for cars over 15 years old and oblige their owners to undergo a mandatory inspection twice a year. However, experts are full of skepticism.

“The owner of Kalina will immediately sell it for 150 thousand and buy Grant for a million? And where is the money, Zin? If only introduce a disposal program. But even if the state from the bounty of its bounties will give 300 thousand rubles for a “viburnum”, only 15-year-old Ford Focus II will be enough . In extreme cases, cars will simply be sold. And they will still fall in price. Or they will pay tax, but they will spend even less on maintaining the technical condition of the car. With the same success, you can fight the inhabitants of decrepit Khrushchevs. Do you want to move from your 50 squares with passing rooms in a modern business class LCD? Well, we will stick to you a triple rent and raise the threefold tariffs for electricity and water! You have to live in good conditions! " - writes the editor -in -chief of the magazine "Driving" Maxim Kadakov.

“There is no reference to the fact that cars over 15 years have significantly affect the accident on the road compared to cars, which has passed much less time from the release date. Economic interests are protected here, not the interests of our citizens ",

- emphasizes the auto lawyer Lev Voropaev.

Today, the average age of vehicles with mileage is 15.5 years. That is, every third car owner will have to pay increased tax, says Ossetsky:

- Every third car on our roads is over 15 years old. This is a huge layer of people with small income. And by the way, by modern standards, this is not a very old car. Despite the fact that we have cars and the early 2000s and the 90s, a huge number of drives. Naturally, you need to remove frankly old cars from the roads that do not meet safety requirements. We see that sometimes such “buckets” are going on, which simply need to be banned for a long time at the legislative level. But do this for 15-year-olds? I think there is too little line.

According to Auto Expert, the initiative in its current form is unlikely to work.

- Well, they will even make a tax - what will it change? Here we need other, more effective measures, the same diagnostic cards, inspections that people should pass. But we understand that in most cases, people who have machines with obvious malfunctions, receive diagnostic maps for a certain reward, register cars and drive along the roads of Russia. Laws should be more thoughtful. I do not think that such an initiative in the form as it was voiced, will be accepted. Most likely, there will be some amendments, maybe by the term of ownership, ”Ossetsky emphasizes.

The authorities also discuss the abolition of a preferential utilsbor in 2025 for individuals. This will touch cars with a motor power of more than 160 liters. With. The “Association of Russians of Russia” (OAR) addressed the Ministry of Industry and Trade to the Ministry of Industry and Trade. So they plan to deal with the "gray" import. Changes can enter into force on October 1. However, there is no particular specificity so far, so it’s too early to comment on this initiative, Sergei Tselikov notes.

Today, utilsbor is the same for a small sedan and a BMW with a powerful motor. A physical person who independently imports a foreign car for personal needs to Russia, pay utilities at a preferential rate: 3,400 rubles for cars up to three years and 5,200 rubles for cars over three years old. There will be no more these bets for powerful cars. And there will be increased rates that will affect prices.

“Car sales collapsed, including because of the utilsbor. What needs to be done to maintain demand? Raising the utilsbor for individuals so that the cars become even more expensive. This is brilliant, I think "

- Users write in social networks.

- For a long time they say that the utilsbor will increase. We perfectly understand why it is, ”says Osetsky. -Because the flow of cars that goes in parallel import, according to various brokerage schemes from abroad, very strongly spoils the life of the official dealers, and also prevents our domestic auto industry from introducing and developing the stamps collected in Russia. Everything is clear here: since it is not possible to increase the sales of these cars, the budget will try to replenish by increasing the utilsbor. Is it right or not, I will not reason. But as it happens with us: at first some kind of tight law is adopted, and then people think how to get around this law. I think the law requires study, so that this is not to the detriment of what is happening on the market now.

According to auto experts, today alternative imports are gaining momentum. A strong ruble and awareness of the irrevocability of global brands led to the fact that buyers are increasingly choosing cars to order from abroad. The alternative to the Chinese and the Russian automobiles are Toyota, BMW, Kia, Hyundai, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, as well as Mazda, Skoda, Audi, Lexus, etc. They are taken directly from China and Korea, as well as through Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus with Belets markets of "unfriendly countries."

At the same time, about 400 thousand unsold cars accumulated at the parking lots of dealers and distributors in Russia. Most are Chinese brands, the rest are AvtoVAZ products. In the Ministry of Industry and Trade, they are preparing for a drop in sales of domestic cars by 40% at the end of the year.

What will happen to the car market next year, it is too early to comment, says Tselikov:

-In Russia, the planning horizon is now about two to three months. Whether Trump will agree with Putin, “Svo” will end, will not end. The market depends on 90 percent on foreign policy factors. The next year you can only lay out the script. If “sucker” does not end, if the bombs so that it doesn’t seem enough, then everything will be bad. When they ask me for business what to lay for the next year, I advise you to lay a flat level of this year. And then, if there is the sum of negative factors, 1 million 250 thousand cars from this bar - you can go down. We are in a state of unstable balance. We are waiting for the arrival of either white or black swan.

Author: Julia Paramonova