What is happening on the front line right now, on the eve of the next negotiations?

The Russian army has practically surrounded Pokrovsk. There are street battles in Kupyansk, Konstantinovka and Volchansk. “New Europe” discussed with experts and military personnel the situation at the front and the prospects for effective Ukrainian resistance. While Russia, the United States, Ukraine and Europe are negotiating a possible peace, bloody battles continue on the battlefields. The Russians are increasingly using the tactic of infiltrating small infantry and sabotage groups into urban areas. Trying to remain unnoticed by Ukrainian drones, Russian attack aircraft infiltrate the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and accumulate in buildings and basements, then come out and attack the enemy from the rear. In battles for a fairly large city, the size of Pokrovsk, only a few hundred people can simultaneously take part on both sides. Residential areas are quickly turning into a gray zone that neither side actually controls. Despite all this, the Russian army continues its slow advance in almost all sectors of the front.

Kharkov region

“Although we do not see the forces with which the Ukrainian Armed Forces could recapture Kupyansk in the Kharkov region, it is still very far from its complete capture by Russia,” a military analyst with The Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity, tells New Europe. — So, Russians are only sporadically spotted in the eastern, left-bank part of the city. And without its capture it is impossible to declare control over Kupyansk. Which, however, did not stop the Russian Defense Ministry from making a similar message. But, according to our forecasts, Kupyansk is unlikely to fall by the end of the year.

“Despite the loud statements of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army Valery Gerasimov and the words of Vladimir Putin about the capture of Kupyansk, today the Ukrainian Armed Forces have managed to stabilize the situation in this city,” Alexander Kovalenko, military-political observer of the Information Resistance group, tells Novaya-Europe. — Russian troops do not have the ability to infiltrate a significant number of personnel into urban areas.

The main zone of concentration of Russian troops in the area of ​​​​Kondrashovka, Radkovka and Golubovka on the right bank of the Oskol River is now less dangerous for the Ukrainian side.

It is extremely difficult for the Russians to cross the water barrier. In the northwestern district of Kupyansk, near Stadium Square, on Zashchitnikov Street and on Constitution Avenue, sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Russian Army are cleaning up. Russian troops are amassing in areas near the lyceum on Yubileinaya Street and near the bakery, as well as near the Kupyansk Agricultural Equipment building. However, even there they may soon be blocked and eliminated. The Russians are also trying to take fire control with FPV drones on the left bank of the Oskol River from Kupyansk-Uzlovoy to Kolesnikovka and Podolov.

In Volchansk, Kharkov region, according to Alexander Kovalenko, Russian troops crossed the Volchya River and are reaching Sinelnikovo. If they succeed, the Russians will take control of Route 2104, which is one of the logistics arteries along which Ukrainian units in this area are supplied. In addition, units of the Russian Army continue to put pressure in the west of the city in the area of ​​the Volchansky bakery and oil extraction plant.

“There have been street battles in Volchansk for a year and a half now,” says Roman Svitan, a military expert and reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in a conversation with Novaya-Europa. “The city is actually divided by war into sections, and in the main part there are violent clashes.

This may continue for a long time. After all, the Russians do not have enough strength and means to completely capture both this settlement and others. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces also do not have the necessary resources to clear the cities of invaders.

CIT experts note that the direction of Volchansk has picked up after relative calm for almost a whole year. And the RF Armed Forces managed to both advance in the city itself and to the west of it, where the Volchya River was crossed and a bridgehead was created in the forest. From there, the Russians can threaten the supply of the Ukrainian garrison of the city, thereby further complicating its defense. But there is no talk yet about the complete capture of the settlement. The pace of Russian advances here is not so high; the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces remains coherent. The defense of the city will probably continue for several more months. And it is possible that the Russian command may again lose interest in Volchansk and the offensive there will stop, as happened a year ago.

Donetsk region

Bloody battles are taking place today in the Konstantinovka area of ​​the Donetsk region. Alexander Kovalenko says that the Russians are approaching the outskirts of the city from the south, moving towards the Kleban-Byk reservoir in the area of ​​Shcherbinovka, Katerynovka and Toretsk. They are trying to gain a foothold on road 519, which joins Magistralnaya Street in Konstantinovka. This will allow the Russian Army to distribute efforts in the southern part of the city in the private sector zone. At the same time, at the moment, Russian troops practically do not penetrate into the urban areas of Konstantinovka. To do this, they will first have to get close to a populated area, which may happen in the near future.

“After Toretsk and Chasov Yar fell last summer, the Russians have already approached Konstantinovka from three sides and are trying to send their sabotage groups into the city and infiltrate the infantry, acting according to the Pokrovsk scenario,” Roman Svitan expresses his opinion. — Now the Russian army is located near the village of Kleban-Byk. In addition, the Russians captured Yampol and are storming Seversk.

If the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot stop this offensive at the tactical level, the Ukrainian defenders may have major problems in defense in this area.

If the Russians are able to capture Konstantinovka, then they will further move towards another city in the Slavyansko-Kramatorsk agglomeration - Druzhkovka. Therefore, at the moment, it is Konstantinovka that is the castle blocking the way for the Russian army to capture the entire Donetsk region.

Other important battle sites in the Donetsk region, according to Alexander Kovalenko, are the cities of Liman and Seversk. Russian troops are now reaching the southern and eastern outskirts of Seversk, infiltrating their soldiers deeper into the city. By the end of the year, Russian DRGs may enter populated areas. A similar situation is observed in Liman, where the Russian army approaches the village of Maslyakovka along highway 0513, sending small groups of soldiers dressed in civilian clothes on foot to the outskirts of the city. These DRGs are identified and cleared by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but it is clear that the intensity of the fighting will increase by the end of the year.

And, of course, the Pokrovsk agglomeration currently remains the hottest spot in Donbass. According to Alexander Kovalenko, the situation in Pokrovsk can be described as consistently very difficult, but relatively controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Any actions in the city of the Russian Army, even successful ones, are quite predictable.

— The Russian armed forces remain a stable zone of control in the southern districts of the city: Durnyak, Lazurny, Yuzhny, Solnechny, Shakhtyorsky, Leontovichi, Rosa and in fact the entire ridge of lakes in the Sazonov gully. The gray zone, also known as the disputed zone, is the city center. Here the main direction of infiltration is the triangle between Shevchenko and European streets. The places where Russians accumulate are almost all former administrative and industrial buildings, in particular a mechanical plant, a water utility, the Shevchenko library, schools, and so on. In general, the process of eliminating Russian DRGs takes place mainly remotely, with the rare use of mop-up groups, but a large amount of human resources allows the enemy not only to compensate for losses in a timely manner, but also to increase the total number of soldiers infiltrated into Pokrovsk. Currently there is up to one Russian battalion in the city. In total, the Russians deployed up to 170 thousand people in the direction. In some locations the balance of forces is one to six in favor of the Russian army.

Alexander Kovalenko recalls that the chief of the Russian general staff, Valery Gerasimov, announced the encirclement of Pokrovsk on October 26, and on October 29, Putin even invited foreign journalists to Pokrovsk to see everything with their own eyes.

“As for Pokrovsk, if you don’t approach the issue from a formal point of view, but in essence, then the city has already been captured,” says the CIT analyst. “Now the fighting is only on its northern outskirts. APUs are recorded in about 5% of the city's territory. The Ukrainians have no chance of recapturing the city. So by the end of the year (most likely even earlier, within a couple of weeks) it will be possible to talk about control of the RF Armed Forces. Although we cannot exclude a situation in which the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to hold one or two positions within the city limits. This will give them the opportunity to claim that the Russian Federation does not completely control the city. This has happened many times before.

If we talk about the surroundings of the satellite city of Pokrovsk Mirnograd, then, according to CIT experts, the city is already partially blocked. Today there is no route from Mirnograd to Ukrainian territory that would be reliably controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That is, the city is separated by a continuous gray zone, where both Russian soldiers and military personnel of their enemy are present. But at the same time, a full-fledged encirclement, when the attacker has the inner and outer sides of the blockade ring reliably built, also does not exist. And it is unlikely to appear due to the characteristics of the current war and the tactics used by the parties. So the Ukrainian Armed Forces can still leave Mirnograd, but with a fight. And the later this happens, the greater the losses it entails.

- In our opinion, the exit from Mirnograd has already been delayed; this should have been done at best a couple of weeks ago, during the fog, and maybe even earlier,

- explains the CIT analyst. - This is if you are guided by the logic of preserving personnel and conducting combat operations in the most favorable tactical environment, thereby obtaining a favorable ratio of losses with the enemy. Obviously, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is guided by a different logic.

Zaporozhye region

“In my opinion, the most threatening situation along the entire front today is developing for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Zaporozhye in the Gulyai-Polye sector,” military analyst and former SBU employee Ivan Stupak tells New Europe. — One of the units of the Ukrainian territorial defense, consisting of untrained fighters, abandoned its positions. Because of this, the Russian army was able to make significant progress in the Zaporozhye region ahead of plans. Now reserves of the Ukrainian armed forces have been deployed there, and they have already begun stabilization measures.

According to CIT experts, the Russian Armed Forces have already approached the outskirts of Gulyai-Polye. Fighting for the city will begin soon, and the threat of its capture certainly exists. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are still unable to stabilize the situation and establish command and control of troops in this area. The redeployed reinforcements have not yet had a significant impact on the situation.

According to Alexander Kovalenko, the situation in the Gulyai-Polye area continues to deteriorate. And the Russian army is currently busy regrouping its units to begin a large-scale infiltration of the DRG into the city.

“The first Russian DRGs are already entering the outskirts of the city of Gulyaypole,” says Alexander Kovalenko. - In fact, the first battles for Gulyai-Polye will not begin in the coming weeks or even days, I think it’s a matter of hours. Accordingly, the response to this problem should be just as prompt. Otherwise, the capture of the city of Gulyaypole with subsequent access to the right bank of the Gaichul River is fraught with the creation of a springboard for a promising offensive by the ROV on Zaporozhye. There is an accumulation of Russians in forest belts near the city. The 5th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation operates in this direction.

During active hostilities, this formation has already lost more than 17 thousand soldiers killed and wounded. The army urgently needs replenishment. Information has appeared that the North Korean military will take part in the battles for Gulyai-Polye.

I highly doubt it. After all, the 29th, 35th, 36th armies and the 68th Army Corps of the Russian Federation are also operating in the South Donbass direction. In total, about 100 thousand Russian soldiers are deployed in the area from Dnepropetrovsk to Zaporozhye regions. So I see no point in involving the North Korean military in the fighting.

“In Zaporozhye, as in other directions, there is a tactical infiltration of Russian troops, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet been able to stop,” says Roman Svitan. — This creeping offensive has already reached Gulyai-Polye, where Ukraine has been building very serious defense lines on the southern side of the city since 2022. The Russian army was unable to overthrow these positions with frontal attacks. However, now the Russians are attacking Gulyai-Polye from the rear, from the north, trying to encircle the city. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine needs to fill this area with personnel and increase reserves. Until this is done, Ukrainian troops will continue to lose not only tactical, but also operational positions. Russians are rushing to the road routes to the village of Pokrovskoye and towards the regional center. If they manage to advance to these roads, the Russian army will be able to leave the northeast to Zaporozhye around spring. In this case, the entire Zaporozhye front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could collapse, the defense could crumble, and there would be a danger of Russian troops breaking through and entering the operational space with the strategic prospect of capturing Zaporozhye.

“The danger of capturing Gulyai-Polye is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lose the cornerstone of defense in this area,” says the CIT analyst. — The nearest large center will be Orekhov, and between them there will only be villages and towns. Accordingly, it will be more difficult to place warehouses, equipment, personnel, headquarters, etc. And the Russian Armed Forces, on the contrary, will receive a base from which it will be possible to launch a further offensive.

“The situation in Zaporozhye remains extremely difficult,” says Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman Sergei L. “Currently there are battles for the village of Primorskoe, where the enemy continues to move in from Plavnya and, along the bottom of the Kakhovka reservoir, sabotage groups penetrate into the central part of the village. At the same time, the Russians were again unable to take Stepnogorsk or even the multi-story buildings in the south of the settlement. Only some of the houses are under enemy control.

A Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman notes that additional pressure on Stepnogorsk is being created by the enemy’s attempts to break through along the highway to Grigorovka. The Russian Armed Forces are carrying out assaults and infiltration into the western part of Stepnogorsk through dacha areas. To the north of the Primorskie dachas there is a large open area, so the enemy does not even try to gain a foothold there, but at great risk to himself enters to the north, where the buildings are located and the trench line is laid.

Moral and psychological situation

“Many Ukrainian military personnel, especially those who have been in service since 2022 or earlier, experience psycho-emotional burnout,” says Alexander Kovalenko. — You can often hear about cases of SZCH (unauthorized abandonment of a unit) or desertion. But people leave their duty stations not always out of cowardice or unwillingness to defend their homeland. Often it is simply enormous moral fatigue from the war and the inability to obtain mental relief and physical relaxation. The command needs to review the systems for providing rest and rehabilitation to soldiers and make the leave system more flexible. At the same time, it is clear to everyone that one has only to give up and succumb to the temptation to retreat, and the whole of Ukraine will turn into one continuous Bakhmut or Pokrovsk. This will be followed by the occupation of the country by Putin, in which there will be no life, but only persecution of everyone who does not agree with this state of affairs. There will be terror, genocide, mass executions, destruction and looting. We already see all this in the occupied territories. So the Ukrainian soldier understands that the only way out is to continue fighting.

“The commander of the Ukrainian unmanned forces, Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, announced a recruitment of 15 thousand people for the position of drone operator,” says Ivan Stupak. “And people come to him.” But drones are the main weapon of war today. In understaffed units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there are cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of units. However, in combat formations there is no escape. Ukrainians understand that they simply have no other option to survive but to fight.

— Хотя россияне прут по всем направлениям, уныния и подавленности у солдат в большем числе частей нет, — рассказывает военнослужащий ВСУ Сергей Л. — Более того, даже если поступит приказ сверху оставить позиции неприятелю и уйти в глубокий тыл, офицеры могут его не выполнить. По закону мы обязаны не выполнять преступные приказы. А командира, отдавшего такое распоряжение, могут сгоряча и к стенке поставить. Не для того мы воюем уже 11 лет, чтобы нашу землю отдать оккупантам. Пока есть оружие — будем воевать. Так думает большинство моих товарищей по ВСУ.

— Я убежден, что, несмотря на серьезные трудности на фронте, боевой дух украинских вооруженных сил до сих пор на высоте, — подводит итоги Роман Свитан. — Властям в Киеве необходимо поставить под ружье десятки тысяч украинских силовиков из полиции и национальной гвардии. Тогда появится возможность оказывать более эффективное сопротивление атакующей армии РФ. Если российское наступление будет идти сегодняшними темпами, ВСУ смогут воевать еще многие годы. О капитуляции или даже сдаче без боя городов речи не идет.