Russian oil prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2020

The average price per barrel of Russian Urals oil, which accounts for the bulk of Russia's oil exports, fell to $44.87 in November. This is stated in the latest report of the Ministry of Economic Development.

After the introduction of American sanctions against the two largest Russian oil companies - Rosneft and Lukoil - a barrel of Urals fell in price by almost nine dollars or 18% compared to October. At the same time, when compared with prices at the beginning of 2025, the price of the main brand of Russian oil fell by 33% or $23 per barrel. According to the ministry, current prices are the lowest since November 2020.

At the same time, the price of oil in rubles fell in November to 3,256 rubles per barrel - the minimum since March 2023. This is 35% less than what the government budgeted for this year and 40% less than what it budgeted for next year.

The collapse in oil prices threatens the Russian budget with a “large shortfall” in oil and gas revenues, economist Yegor Susin told The Moscow Times. He noted that in just 11 months of 2025, commodity tax revenues to the treasury fell by 21% compared to last year, and in November the decline reached 34% in annual terms.

At the same time, according to the expert, the reduction in oil and gas revenues of the Russian state “should accelerate in January, taking into account the dynamics of oil prices and discounts.”

In turn, VTB Investments strategist Alexey Mikheev warned that the failure of export revenues will be reflected in the foreign exchange market early next year. So, according to him, the Russian currency will fall to 85-90 rubles per dollar.