Movements in negotiations and at the front - a fresh summary of the events of the Ukrainian war from Nikolai Mitrokhin*

Negotiations to end the war have entered a phase in which compromises no longer seem theoretical. The United States is putting pressure on Kyiv and Moscow at the same time, the front is slowly but inexorably changing its configuration, the cost of breaking down negotiations is becoming higher for Ukraine and its allies. Nikolai Mitrokhin* examines what actually ended up on the negotiating table, what territories and conditions are being discussed behind the scenes, and how the situation at the front affects political decisions.

Negotiation

It is quite difficult to generalize, much less predict the fate of the “peace plans.” Over the past two weeks, they have been heatedly discussed by all parties to the negotiation process, by numerous sympathizers of Ukraine and simply “supporters of peace.” This comes amid US-Ukrainian talks taking place in Berlin on Sunday and Monday. Surely these negotiations will immediately receive assessment from key EU states.

For now, we can state a significant convergence of the positions of Russia and Ukraine with US pressure on both sides. Their representatives now declare their readiness for “compromises.”

The previously hotly debated issue of the maximum size of the Ukrainian army of 800 thousand people seems to have been resolved. Here Zelensky agreed to accept Russian restrictions, although, of course, in a peaceful situation it was already impossible for Ukraine to maintain an army of this size.

In addition, last week Zelensky returned several times to the issue of early presidential elections and stated that he had begun to discuss this with deputies. On December 12, he proposed holding elections right now - without concluding a peace treaty, but with a suspension of hostilities. This would be beneficial for Ukraine: it would allow it to strengthen its nearby rear areas without attacks by Russian drones. This would also be a response to both Trump and Putin to the head of the Russian Federation’s doubts about the legitimacy of the current Ukrainian government.

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