Balanced budgets and broken promises

Meduza fact-checks Putin’s most problematic claims in his latest call-in marathon

On Friday, President Vladimir Putin held his annual Direct Line call-in show, where he fielded questions from carefully selected journalists and Russian citizens for nearly four and a half hours. This televised event gave Putin yet another opportunity to expound upon everything from the war in Ukraine and relations with the West to the state of the Russian economy. But as usual, many of his remarks were either not entirely correct or downright untrue. Meduza fact-checks some of Putin’s most confounding takes.

On Russia’s ‘balanced budget’

What Putin said: “The federal budget deficit is 2.6 percent of GDP, but next year we expect it to be 1.6 percent. And over the next three years, it should be no more than 1.5 percent. […] The most important thing is that we have managed — and the government must be given credit for doing a great job — to balance the budget. Moreover, the quality of this balance is at a 2021 level, and this is a very important indicator of the stability of the country’s economy and financial system.”

The facts: The figures Putin cited are official estimates. However, he left out the fact that amid extreme wartime spending — surpassing $137 billion in 2025 alone — the authorities can only “balance the budget” by raising taxes.

Starting in 2026, Russia’s general value-added tax, or VAT, will rise from 20 to 22 percent. When announcing this tax hike, the Finance Ministry acknowledged that this measure is meant to help cover Russia’s “defense and security” expenditures — in other words, to fund the war against Ukraine. During the Direct Line, Putin referred to the tax hike as “temporary.”

On peace talks

What Putin said: “To say that we rejected [the peace plan] is absolutely incorrect, and this has no basis whatsoever. […] The ball is entirely in the court of our western opponents, so to speak; first and foremost, the leaders of the Kyiv regime and, above all, their European sponsors.”

The facts: Russia hasn’t explicitly ruled out the idea of a peace agreement and is engaging in talks with the United States. However, Moscow has yet to show any willingness to make concessions or even to agree to a ceasefire that would freeze the front line and result in de facto recognition of Russia’s control over already occupied territories.

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During the Direct Line, Putin reiterated that he had outlined his demands for peace last summer — and that they remain unchanged. Back then, Putin demanded that Ukraine hand over the entire Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, and that they be internationally recognized as Russian territory. Ukraine is unlikely to accept these conditions, even as Russia’s ongoing offensives put pressure on its defenses.

On NATO expansion

What Putin said: “The promises made to us regarding the non-expansion of NATO are being ignored. We have been deceived once again; several waves of NATO expansion have taken place. And this movement of military infrastructure towards our borders undoubtedly has been and continues to be a cause for concern.”

The facts: The “broken promise” not to expand NATO eastward is a favorite talking point that Putin repeats regularly. In reality, Western leaders didn’t make any public promises or legal commitments. While such proposals were indeed raised during the talks on German reunification, Western leaders ultimately managed to extract concessions from Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev without offering any guarantees against NATO expansion.

On Russia’s ‘foreign agents’ law

What Putin said: “Our law demands only one thing: If you engage in political activity, you must declare your sources of funding. We have no repressions or criminal prosecution.”

The facts: Putin often portrays Russia’s “foreign agents” law as lenient. In reality, evading “foreign agent” obligations is a criminal offense punishable by up to two years in prison. On December 9, a Russian court handed down a 22-month in absentia prison sentence to exiled opposition politician Ilya Yashin for this specific offense. That same day, during a meeting of the Presidential Human Rights Council, Putin incorrectly claimed that Russia’s “foreign agents” law doesn’t threaten prison sentences.

On relations with the West

What Putin said: “There won’t be any [special military] operations if you treat us with respect, if you respect our interests just as we’ve always tried to respect yours. If you don’t cheat us like you cheated us with NATO’s eastward expansion.”

The facts: Putin has offered a variety of justifications for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but this is the first time he or any other Russian official has mentioned a lack of “respect” from the West as a purported cause of the war.

During the Direct Line, Putin also denied Russia’s responsibility for war deaths in Ukraine. “We don’t consider ourselves responsible for people’s deaths because we didn’t start this war. It began after the unconstitutional armed coup in Ukraine,” he said.