Translated material
50 years ago
Sociologists and Novaya Gazeta asked how people imagine Russia in half a century: technology, population, freedom...
Photo: Alexey Smagin / Kommersant
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Levada Center*, together with the Future Laboratory of Novaya Gazeta, asked Russians six questions about the future. We've set our sights forward half a century. The study participants (1,600 people aged 18 and older from all regions of Russia) were asked six questions. They all started with the words: “Imagine our country in 50 years. If we compare it with today...” And then there were questions in six areas: territory, population, standard of living, country’s authority in the world, level of civil liberties, level of technological development.
Three answer options were offered: “it will be higher/more than now,” “the same as now,” “lower than now.”
To some extent, this turned out to be a test of fantasy and imagination. If we look at the results from this angle, we can see that the area where this imagination is given the greatest freedom is the sphere of technology. 73% overall said the country's level of technological development will be higher than it is now. It is noteworthy that people who can afford the most financially allow themselves to fantasize the most. Among them, 82% are confident that the level of technology will be higher than the current one.
If we consider this a test of historical optimism, then, of course, everyone passed it. In all studied categories of the population, the pessimistic answer “lower/less than now” was always inferior to the optimistic answer “higher/more than now.”
In the answer about the change in the country's population, 23% on average and 28% among entrepreneurs said that the population of our country will be lower in 50 years than it is now. But overall, 53% - and among management 65%, and among students in general 76% - assured that the population of Russia in 50 years will be higher than it is now. And the territory of the country will somehow expand, 56% of respondents believe, and among people under 35 years old - 63%.
Optimism remains, although to a lesser extent, in the answers about the standard of living of the population in those still distant years. 46% believe that it will be higher, and 14% believe that it will be lower than now. On this issue, understandably, the opinions of the least and most affluent respondents differ sharply. Among the least affluent, 50% believe that the level of well-being will be higher than now, 11% do not believe. And among the most prosperous, 66% believe, 4% do not believe.
This, of course, is a test of patriotism. It can be seen in the answers of almost 60% of Russians about the fact that the authority of our country in the world in half a century will be higher than it is now.
The highest results are shown, not surprisingly, by executives (70%). It is worth noting that in this - and only in this question - young people aged 20-24, that is, those who have a good chance to personally check their own predictions, show less optimism (56%) than older generations who do not have this chance (60%).
What does the study's finding tell us that there is the least optimism found about the level of political and civil liberties in this country after 50 years? Overall, 34% found that the level of freedoms would increase. The same number - 34% - decided that there would be as many freedoms as there are now, 12% said that there would be even fewer. The level of those who found it difficult to answer this question is the highest - 20%. It is impossible not to notice that there are twice as many expectations for technological progress as there are hopes for progress in political and civil liberties.