The ruble was predicted to fall to its lowest level since 2024

By the end of the year, the ruble exchange rate may weaken to its lowest level since 2024, according to the Roscongress report “Key Events in 2026.” According to forecasts, by the end of this year the dollar could be worth 100 rubles if the Russian currency weakens by five rubles in each quarter.

Roscongress believes that the first quarter of 2026 will be indicative for the Russian currency. At the same time, the report says that the third and fourth quarters could be the moment of a radical change in monetary policy and a transition to a supply-side economy.

A strong ruble will help contain inflation and will facilitate the modernization of technology, as it will reduce the cost of imports. A weak ruble, on the contrary, will increase the costs of exporters and the Russian budget, according to the report.

Oil prices this year will be at $60 per barrel, according to Roscongress. They will continue to be under pressure from an oversupply of raw materials on the market, which, according to the authors of the report, arose due to increased production by OPEC+, which is fighting for market share, and suppliers outside the organization.

At the same time, logistics and geopolitical factors, such as the risk of interruptions in the supply of raw materials from Iran, may support oil prices. The growth in demand for energy resources remains moderate, Roscongress added.

At the same time, experts with whom RIA Novosti spoke said that geopolitical events and the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy could lead to further strengthening of the ruble. According to the agency's interlocutors, in the near future the dollar exchange rate may drop to 74 or even 70 rubles.