Winter as a weapon: A new phase of the conflict in Ukraine in the latest report by Nikolai Mitrokhin*

Ukrainian soldiers fire from the BM-21 Grad MLRS at Russian positions near Druzhkovka, Donetsk region.

Photo by IRYNA RYBAKOVA / THE 93RD KHOLODNYI YAR SEPARATE MECHANIZED BRIGADE / AFP

While delegates in Abu Dhabi discussed the terms of the truce, the Russian army targeted Konstantinovka, a key city on the outskirts of Kramatorsk. At the same time, there were large-scale attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector, which, in the midst of frost, left hundreds of thousands of residents of the country without light and heat. This could last several more months - experts on both sides are increasingly saying that the war could continue until the fall of 2026, until one side exhausts its resources.

At the negotiating table

The general political agenda in “Western” politics in mid-January focused on the “Greenland question” and the crisis of NATO as an institution, and the creation of the “Peace Council” by Donald Trump. The issue of war in Ukraine has faded into the background, if not into the background.

Nevertheless, thanks to pressure from Trump (on whose initiative a group of ships of the Russian “shadow fleet” was seized, to which France joined) and as a result of the outbreak of an obvious budget crisis in Russia (as evidenced by data on the sale of the remaining gold and yuan from the reserves of the National Welfare Fund), on January 23-24, in Abu Dhabi, with the mediation of the United States, regular direct negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, consisting mainly of military personnel, took place.

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