War

One thousand four hundred thirty-sixth day. Friedrich Merz ruled out Ukraine joining the European Union by 2027 (such a point was in the peace plan)

Since February 24, 2022, Meduza has been broadcasting live about the Russian-Ukrainian war. We publish your letters every day because we are sure that we need to continue talking about the war. Share with us your thoughts about the war. What feelings are you experiencing? How does war affect your life and your attitude towards the world? If you have a story related to the war, tell it . The feedback form is at the end of this article. A review of the previous day can be read here .

Ukraine

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has ruled out Ukraine joining the European Union in 2027. “Joining on January 1, 2027 is excluded. This is impossible,” he said .

Merz recalled that each country that wants to join the EU must meet a number of specific criteria, a process that usually takes years. The Chancellor stressed that it is important for Ukraine to have the prospect of accession, but this process will be long-term.

According to Merz, Ukraine’s too rapid entry into the EU is “simply inappropriate.”

The clause on Ukraine's potential entry into the EU in 2027 first appeared in the US peace plan, which hit the press last November. In December, the Financial Times wrote that this option is indeed being discussed at negotiations involving Ukraine, the United States and European countries and is one of the parameters of the peace agreement.

A few days ago, Politico clarified that the clause on the accelerated entry of Kiev into the European Union is contained in the “prosperity plan”, which describes the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. The publication noted that the leaders of many EU countries do not like this, as they fear that linking the restoration of Ukraine with membership in the community will create “unforeseen complications for the union.”

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced on January 23 that at the EU summit, the leaders of the bloc countries were presented with a confidential document from the European Commission, which provides for Ukraine’s membership until 2027. At the same time, the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, who is also a candidate for EU membership, spoke about the existence of such a document.

Publicly, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, named 2030 as a potential date for Ukraine’s accession to the EU.

Today, European Commissioner for Enlargement Martha Kos said that Ukraine's accession to the EU in 2027 is “the desire of many member states.” She did not specify which countries we are talking about or how many there are, but noted that before that, Kyiv will need to carry out reforms in any case.

Ukraine received official candidate status for EU membership in the summer of 2022. So far, however, Kyiv has not even begun formal negotiations on joining the European Union. This is largely due to the position of Hungary. Viktor Orban has repeatedly emphasized that while he is in power, Budapest will continue to block any movement of Ukraine towards membership in the community, because it does not want the EU to be drawn into a war.

Russia

Russia's energy revenues in 2025 fell by about 20% compared to 2024, writes the Financial Times. The main reasons are the general drop in oil prices in the world and US sanctions imposed in early autumn against Rosneft and Lukoil.

After the introduction of sanctions, Russian companies had to increase the discount on their oil in order to maintain export volumes. If before the sanctions the discount was approximately $15 per barrel, now it is more than $24.

Thus, at the end of December, the Ministry of Economic Development reported that the average price of Urals oil, on the basis of which oil companies are charged mineral extraction taxes, amounted to $39.2 per barrel. The price of a barrel of Brent oil on the markets this month was above $60.

According to the FT, some recent shipments to India were delivered at an even lower price - $22-25 per barrel, which is only slightly higher than the cost of production and transportation. “If the United States further tightens sanctions, the only way to sell oil is through a pipeline [rather than tanker transportation by sea],” a former top manager who worked in the energy sector in the Russian Federation told the publication.

Amid sanctions, the share of energy revenues in the Russian budget fell from a peak of 50% to about 24%, which was the lowest level in at least the last decade, writes the Financial Times.

War in photographs. Front-line villages in Zaporozhye region

War through the eyes of Meduza readers

Oksana (Kiev) . I had a dream. I slept in the country, covered with a thin blanket, feeling how the night envelops me with its velvety warmth. There was a sweetish aroma of sun-warmed grass in the air, mixed with the light scent of pine. Somewhere in the distance thunder rumbled - dull, rolling, like the sleepy breath of a thunderstorm.

I knew it was about to rain. It will begin with timid drops that will fall on the hot roof, hiss on the window, and then a real downpour will break out - the long-awaited, refreshing one. I lay smiling in my sleep and felt absolute happiness, as I had once done in childhood, in Slavyansk in the Donbass.

But then I woke up... She opened her eyes. Darkness. The peals still thundered, but differently. It was not thunder, but something alien, frightening. In my sleep I heard the sounds of air defense, suicide bombers and ballistic missiles were flying towards Kyiv. No dachas saturated with the smell of the heated sun, no summer nights full of warm, deep peace. No childish happiness, simple, serene, like the breath of a sleeping world. All this remained there. Beyond the line that cannot be crossed, beyond the border of time, beyond which now there are only memories. It will never happen again.

Now thunder is air defense, and the sky is torn up by other people's tracks. Now the silence is not comfort, but tense anticipation. Now the night is not a rest, but a precarious boundary between fear and hope. And it seems the war is endless. She is not only outside, she is already inside. It is woven into thoughts, into smells, into sounds, into the air we breathe. She displaced time, erasing the distinction between yesterday, today and tomorrow. Now the past is the only place where you can still hide.

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