The media learned about Russia's problems with import substitution of parts for drones and missiles

Russia is trying to get rid of its dependence on imported foreign technology, but is facing serious difficulties in doing so. This was reported by the Financial Times.

A February 2025 report from the Russian Ministry of Economy, reviewed by journalists, said the country remains critically dependent on imports in areas key to the war in Ukraine, including mechanical engineering, drone production and energy. Efforts to develop non-energy exports and build infrastructure to support production and external supplies have also stalled, the document said.

The assessment outlines a six-year plan to achieve import substitution targets in critical industries before the end of Vladimir Putin's current term. By 2030, the Russian ministry predicts an “inevitable transformation” of the economy and a sharp increase in technological independence from foreign suppliers.

Alexandra Prokopenko, a research fellow at the Carnegie Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, after reading the document, called such estimates too optimistic. “What really stands out is comparing the 2030 targets with the 2024 targets. These are key technologies and industries for the war and for self-sufficiency in general, and they are hugely dependent on imports.”

Many of the areas in which Russia wants to achieve self-sufficiency have been hit hardest by sanctions, the Financial Times noted. In particular, one of the most modern Russian cruise missiles, the Kh-101, may contain more than 50 foreign components, including American-made electronics. Due to sanctions, Moscow was forced to reorient itself to China, which in 2023 provided about 90% of microelectronics imported into the country.

The production of drones in Russia now depends on Chinese suppliers. Thus, engines, cameras, antennas, video transmitters, ignition modules, batteries, processors, sensors and controllers of the new Russian Delta drone were produced in China, it follows from the Ukrainian analysis.

Russian civil aviation relies on smuggling schemes to obtain spare parts for Western-made aircraft. At the same time, the country's airlines were returning mothballed aircraft to service.

Attempts to create a passenger airliner without Western components have so far been unsuccessful. The medium-range MS-21, which is produced by a subsidiary of Rostec, is still at the testing stage after a forced redesign of the design.

A report from the Ministry of Economy suggests that the Russian public and private sectors will more than double spending on research and development to 2% of GDP by 2030. Experts called these estimates unrealistic.

“To achieve many goals, they have already had to abandon some requirements because there are no domestic alternatives. In some cases, Chinese goods are simply labeled as Russian in order to fulfill their objectives,” Heli Simola, an economist at the Institute for Emerging Economies at the Bank of Finland, told reporters.

The stated goals for 2030 look more like political declarations than a realistic development plan, and the potential for import substitution will remain limited, experts concluded.