Recruiting fighters for the offensive in Donbass could cost Russia 5.1 trillion rubles

The Russian authorities could spend up to 5.1 trillion rubles on recruiting hundreds of thousands of contract soldiers to carry out an offensive in the territory of the Donetsk region that remains under the control of Kiev, the analytical project re:Russia has calculated . This amount is comparable to 90% of the 2025 federal budget deficit.

According to analysts, about 1 trillion rubles a year may be spent on payments to contract workers from regional budgets. This is 66% of the total regional budget deficit in 2025.

Cost calculations are made taking into account the size of the Russian army of 600 thousand people. Russia may need approximately the same number of military personnel to carry out assaults on fortified areas in the Donetsk region over the course of a year or a year and a half.

Already, Russia has concentrated almost 330 thousand military personnel near the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, the most fortified region of Ukraine, says Ukrainian military expert Alexander Kovalenko.

However, it is difficult for the Russian Armed Forces to gain a foothold in the starting positions to launch an offensive, noted analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The army is already experiencing difficulties in making up for combat losses, analysts wrote. New tactics of infiltration into populated areas do not allow the evacuation of the wounded.

Russian authorities are offering generous payments to contract soldiers in order to maintain the necessary level of recruitment into the army and bring the balance between losses and replacements to zero.

Expenses include payments for service, injuries, death, and the very fact of signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense. 38% of expenses go to compensation for the death of military personnel, about 33% to monetary allowances and 20% to regional one-time payments to contract soldiers.

The costs of maintaining the army have increased significantly compared to previous years. From mid-2023 to mid-2024, an average of about 3 trillion rubles was spent on Russian military personnel.

Ukrainian troops control about 20% of the Donetsk region, the status of this territory not captured by Russia is one of the main points in negotiations mediated by the United States.

In the unoccupied area of ​​the Donetsk region there are several large cities that create a belt of fortresses. An assault on the territories could cause critical damage to the Russian mobilization reserve, says military expert Alexander Kovalenko.

Russian troops are preparing a new major offensive and plan to carry it out in the south or east of Ukraine in the summer of 2026, ISW reported . According to analysts, the command has been forming a strategic reserve using conscripts since the summer of 2025.