What's happening at Mach?

Journalist Dmitry Kolezev notes: users, as a rule, are inert and very reluctant to move to new platforms.

— The power of habit, convenience, as well as the presence of a familiar interface, content, and contacts are very important. Even if a person does not ask himself: “Why do I need this?”, he still unconsciously answers this question. If there is no obvious benefit from a new platform, why waste time on it? Therefore, the state is trying to do everything to ensure that such “benefits” appear: roughly speaking, you will lose part of your social life if you do not move to Mach (for example, you will not be in the school or home chat, you will not be able to communicate normally with relatives and friends). Under such pressure, people are ready to move. But most likely, feeling this pressure, they will perceive the new platform as a “necessary evil” and use it in the least possible way, says Kolezev.

On the other hand, VK Video, thanks to the efforts of the Russian authorities, was still able to increase its audience in recent years - it was this platform that the state relied on as a “replacement” for blocked YouTube. Foreign films and cartoons were uploaded to the domestic video service, and popular bloggers were lured there: Vlad A4, Azamat Musagaliev, Shastun and others.

By the end of 2025, VK Video, according to Mediascope, was the leader in audience coverage among video hosting sites in Russia. The number of daily users of the service has reached 42 million people, while about 22 million regularly visit YouTube after blocking. However, even Russian experts believe that the growth of VK Video is largely due to children's and pirated content and the pre-installation of the application on Smart TV. In addition, YouTube and VK Video have different approaches to metrics, so statistics on views and audience may be distorted in favor of VK (.

Whether Mach will be able to at least partially repeat this path is unknown. After all, such active coercion was not used to promote the Russian video service, for example.

— “VK Video” may have occupied its niche, but it is not marketable: advertising is sold poorly there, money is not made there, content authors and advertisers do not go there of their own free will. From what we know, VK Video is unlikely to survive without government support (like VK as a whole - it is unprofitable). The same goes for Mach: there may be a niche “messenger for communication in government-authorized areas” (school, housing and communal services), as well as a super-app for government services.” But this is not a natural niche, but a structure that lives off state financial support, Dmitry Kolezev tells Paper . — In general, the total blocking of Telegram and WhatsApp, coupled with strengthening measures against VPNs, will lead to the fact that many Russians will use Mach under pressure. But it is unlikely that there will be a natural organic growth of the ecosystem, as in telegram or YouTube.

In a conversation with the publication “That’s So,” representatives of the advertising market in Telegram, on the contrary, predict an increase in turnover: entrepreneurs are betting on the use of VPNs by Russians, some also do not want to lose access to the emigrated audience. Market players believe that, at least for now, Max cannot compete with Telegram in terms of audience and trust. Experts suggested the same thing in a conversation with Kommersant.

“According to our estimates, the income of a channel in Max can be, at best, 5–15% of its potential in telegram with comparable content and frequency of publications,” said Damir Feyzullov, director of SMM and ORM at the communications agency PR Partner, a few weeks before the telegram slowdown.

The potential capacity of the advertising market in Max was previously estimated at 600 million rubles - this is almost 50 times less than that of Telegram.