Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the murdered Ayatollah, is vying for the post of Supreme Leader of Iran. He is considered more radical than his father and has close ties to the security forces. What is known about him?

In the 47 years of history of the Islamic Republic, the Council of Experts meets to elect the Supreme Leader for the second time. The main favorite is Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the assassinated Ayatollah, who remained in the shadows for many years, but, according to sources, it is his candidacy that is now being promoted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. However, there is no official confirmation from Tehran yet, and within the clergy there are fears that the public announcement of the name of the successor could make him a prime target for the United States and Israel. What is known about Mojtaba Khamenei and how experts on the region characterize him - in the material "New Europe".

According to sources in The New York Times and Iran International , Iran's Council of Experts, the highest body of clergy responsible for appointing the supreme leader, met on March 2, where the main favorite for the post was 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed over the weekend.

The Iranian authorities have not officially confirmed this information. It will be only the second time in the Islamic Republic's 47-year history that the Council will meet to elect a leader. This first happened in 1989, when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was elected.

As The New York Times reported, citing three Iranian officials familiar with the situation, the clergy is considering the possibility of officially announcing a new successor, but there is no unity on this issue. Some council members have expressed concerns that publicly announcing the name could make him a prime target for strikes by the United States and Israel. Because of these risks, Council meetings were held online, and a planned meeting in the city of Qom was disrupted by an Israeli strike on the empty building where it was supposed to take place.

US President Donald Trump, at a press conference on Tuesday, already expressed concern that the new head of Iran could be a person “as bad as the previous one,” which the United States would not want to allow.

"An active politician with the ideas of the Islamic revolution." Who is Mojtaba Khamenei

If the Council chooses Mojtaba, it will mean the final victory of the most radical wing of the regime, closely associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University, told The New York Times. In his opinion, this will indicate that it is the IRGC that now controls the situation in the country.

According to sources in The New York Times, it was the IRGC that actively lobbied for his appointment, insisting that in conditions of an acute crisis, the country needs a leader who already has experience in managing security and military structures.

The candidacy of Mojtaba Khamenei as a successor has been considered for a long time, Marianna Belenkaya, author of the Falafelnaya telegram channel, which covers events in the Middle East, said in a conversation with New Europe. She said it had been a topic of years of discussion - informal because a successor had never been formally appointed.

— Moreover, they initially said that this option was unlikely, because Khamenei Sr. himself was allegedly against the hereditary transfer of power - so that it would not be associated with the Shah’s Iran, with the monarchy ( the Islamic Revolution of 1979 proclaimed the creation of the Islamic Republic, where power could not be inherited, as it was under the monarchy; the supreme leader must be elected by the Council of Experts. - Ed. ). But gradually, apparently, the situation changed, she said.

As orientalist and NEST Center expert Ruslan Suleymanov said in a conversation with New Europe, if the Iranian authorities really made such a decision, then it is obvious: in the face of an external threat, the regime decided not to change course and continue the policy followed by Khamenei Sr.

— Mojtaba Khamenei is known for having support not only in religious circles, but also among security forces, primarily in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. On the other side,

There are many in Iran who believe that Mojtaba should not hold this post, because his appointment essentially copies the dynastic principle that existed under the Shah and the monarchy.

But, again, given the unprecedented conditions in which the transition of power takes place, perhaps such a decision was made,” said the interlocutor of “New-Europe”.

It is premature to talk about some new course that will be fundamentally different from what was under Ali Khamenei, Suleymanov believes; at least as long as the fighting continues. In general, he said, if Mojtaba is elected, the Iranian regime will remain the same as it was under Khamenei Sr.

At the same time, as Marianna Belenkaya emphasized in a conversation with New Europe, it is believed that Mojtaba is more radical than his father: he actively participated in the suppression of the 2009 protests, and has always been closely associated with the Basij, the IRGC militia, which plays a key role in suppressing popular uprisings.

“He was brought up within the system, in seminaries, made a career, became an active politician with the ideas of the Islamic revolution, to which he is undoubtedly faithful. He will also be fueled by a sense of revenge and a sense of duty towards his father. And he’s well aware that he’s now the next target,” she says.

In addition, as Belenkaya notes, Mojtaba has always remained in the shadows and has never held official political positions, so he may turn out to be a “dark horse.” Moreover, in recent years, we do not know exactly to what extent his father retained real power, and to what extent Mojtaba already influenced decision-making, the interlocutor of “New Europe” emphasizes.

But even if he himself does not become the supreme leader, there are several candidates who could turn out to be his proteges, Belenkaya noted.

“No time for a power struggle.” Who else is being considered for the position of Supreme Leader of Iran?

The reports that appeared in Iran International and The New York Times are themselves capable of influencing the situation in Iran, notes Ruslan Suleymanov: we don’t know for sure whether Mojtaba was actually elected. And now, he said, the Iranian leadership finds itself in a difficult trap.

“If they elect Mojtaba, it may look like a concession to external pressure, like playing along with the emigrant media. If they do not elect him, they will alienate that part of the security and religious elite that wanted to see him in this post. But in any case, since the regime is now fighting for survival, internal divisions are receding into the background. They simply have no time for a struggle for power.

And even if Mojtaba Khamenei really became the supreme leader, he now has no time to sort things out with competitors or opponents of his election,

- he says.

Against this backdrop, two more alternative candidates are also being considered for the post of supreme leader, says The New York Times: Alireza Arafi , a cleric and legal scholar who is part of the three-person temporary transitional council created after the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, and Seyyed Hassan Khomeini , the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, known for his closeness to the reformist wing that was removed from power.

In addition, according to the Arabic news channel Al-Hadat, other candidates are also being discussed. Among them:

• Hassan Rouhani, former president and member of the Council of Experts (the very body that will choose the new supreme leader);
• Sadeq Amoli Larijani, who served as head of the judiciary and heads the Political Expediency Council;
• Mohammad Reza Hosseini Bushehri, member of the Council of Experts.

However, not a single option has been finalized yet.