War

1490th day. Kyiv is preparing for a new stage: negotiations do not bring results, the United States does not want to help, the EU is “strategically unpredictable,” writes Ukrayinska Pravda

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Ukraine

Ukrainian elites are increasingly preparing for a protracted war, as the negotiation process with Russia and the United States is not yielding results and the prospects for a quick peace seem less and less realistic, writes Ukrayinska Pravda.

The negotiations themselves - even before their suspension caused by the outbreak of the US war with Iran - were, as the publication writes, actually built around the status of Donbass. All other issues were discussed “mainly so that they could be resolved and demonstrate ‘dynamics’ and ‘progress’.”

However, the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Donbass is hardly possible for Ukraine for several reasons, writes Ukrayinska Pravda. Firstly, the country's leadership does not see how this can guarantee an end to Russian aggression. “It is impossible to explain to the commanders of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who now hold the dominant heights in the Donetsk region, that defending in the open steppes behind these heights will be easier or more profitable. They simply don’t understand why they need such a scenario,” the publication writes.

Secondly, Ukraine is gradually regaining the initiative on the battlefield. After the appointment of Mikhail Fedorov as Minister of Defense in January, he began to transform the entire logic of managing the course of military operations, and this has already begun to bring results - in February, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they recaptured more territories than Russia captured.

The third reason is the internal political situation in Ukraine. Any decision to end the war will require the participation of the Verkhovna Rada - and now the presidential majority there is very unstable amid anti-corruption scandals.

In this regard, for Ukraine, the main goal is not so much to conclude a peace agreement right now, but to maintain the attention of the United States, without whose help Kyiv simply will not be able to continue the war. The European Union, considered a key partner of Ukraine, is “strategically unpredictable.” As Ukrayinska Pravda writes, Brussels functionaries are “world champions in making loud statements,” but real help is not always achieved.

This is what happened, for example, with the 90 billion loan promised by the EU. It was blocked by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. If the loan is not allocated in the coming months, one of the senior members of Vladimir Zelensky’s team told Ukrainskaya Pravda, Kyiv may run out of money for social payments already in the second half of the year.

“Therefore, it is obvious that [Kirill] Budanov and [David] Arakhamia must travel, must talk, look for wording. As long as it is needed. Otherwise, there will be several more years of war and without the United States. Are people ready for this? I’m afraid not,” the source told the publication.

At the same time, the threat of being without US help is now more real than ever: the Americans do not see any desire on Kyiv’s part to negotiate, and this could force them to withdraw from the peace process altogether.

As Ukrayinska Pravda concludes, the country’s main problem at the beginning of the fifth year of the war was that Ukraine needs to plan further struggle for a strategic perspective, but it cannot independently collect the necessary resources, and assistance from partners is under threat.

Ukraine cannot agree to the terms of its partners, but it also cannot categorically refuse them, because it will lose part of its already scarce resources for survival. In chess, such a situation is called a stalemate. But in the life of a country at war, you cannot declare a draw and start a new game. Therefore, today the Ukrainian authorities are busy with a difficult search for a strong move that can move the unfavorable situation from a dead point.

War in photographs. Donetsk region

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Meduza's readers live in different countries and have different attitudes towards the war. We publish your letters to see this event through your eyes. Our editors try to present all points of view, even if they do not coincide with the editorial position. However, in accordance with the Meduza code, we do not publish messages that contain “hate speech,” justify the murder of civilians, or express direct support for an aggressive war.

Herman . The Third World War is in full swing. Nothing and no one can stop it. When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, everyone shouted - how can this be, Russians don’t fight, we need to take to the streets, but you apparently like everything. Yes, of course, Russians do not know how to defend their rights, but this has long been known. But where are all the Europeans who should show their governments that they do not support the horror that is happening around? Where are the Europeans protesting against the incredible rise in gasoline prices, for example? Where are the Europeans who demand to stop groveling before the overseas Fuhrer and finally create a European army that will protect both Europe and Ukraine? There are none. They sit at home. They think it doesn't concern them. They are waiting for it to be over. Exactly the same as the Russians, whom he so loudly accused.

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