What do Hungarians think about Russia, Viktor Orban and the war in Ukraine

If an ethnic Hungarian, who had never left his native village in Ukrainian Transcarpathia, suddenly found himself in the capital of Hungary in the spring of 2026, he probably would not have immediately understood whether this was Budapest or Kyiv.

The entire city is densely plastered with portraits of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. The posters, where he is depicted together with the leader of the main opposition party Tisza, Péter Magyar, read “Danger” at the top and “Fidesz Only” below (this is the ruling party in Hungary that advertises itself this way). On others, with Magyar and Zelensky, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. Only recently did posters of Prime Minister Viktor Orban appear in the city. He looks heroic, his gaze is directed into the distance, the collar of his jacket is raised.

“There used to be a smiling Zelensky, as if from some kind of advertisement. And it was written something like: don’t let him have the last laugh. But now they decided that it was better to show him as a kind of caught prisoner - that’s why he’s gloomy next to the same Magyar. This is the level of our election campaign,” complains Hungarian journalist Gergely Nilas.

There are no opposition billboards visible in the city. According to Nilash, all advertising space belongs to companies close to Fidesz. But it doesn’t matter, because Magyar is already showing off all over the city at the expense of Orban’s party. In addition, on almost every pole there are small posters with the faces of candidates in the majoritarian district to which this particular pole belongs. There are so many of them that people react creatively: one election participant was given a mustache like Hitler, another was given four penises, and a third was given both a swastika and a Jewish star. To some posters with Zelensky and Magyar, a sticker was added with the phrase “Only Fidesz” in Cyrillic and with an image of Putin.

Orban, who has ruled Hungary for 16 years, is accustomed to looking for an external threat for each election campaign, and in 2026 he relied on popular hatred of Ukraine. Orban and pro-government media say that Ukraine is preparing sabotage on critical infrastructure, trying to influence the outcome of the elections, insisting that if the opposition wins, Kyiv will form the future government, with which it will drag Hungary into the war.

“It has always been important for Orbán to assign a scapegoat: previously it was [businessman and philanthropist George] Soros , Brussels, LGBTQ+ , and now Ukraine,” says Judith Vertes, a philologist and opposition activist. But in Budapest, especially among its educated residents, Orban’s anti-Ukrainian rhetoric finds few positive responses.

“I’m ashamed, to be honest, that this is happening in the 21st century in the center of Europe. The neighboring country is in trouble, it is waging an existential war for existence, and Orban has made it the subject of a campaign,” admits writer and political scientist Zoltan Biro. We are sitting in his apartment, surrounded by cabinets with books, including Russian ones. Biro is considered an expert on Russia, lived in Leningrad for the last five years of Brezhnev's rule, and wrote several books about Putin's Russia and the war in Ukraine .

Opposition chances

The opposition has been trying to overthrow Orban for a long time, but this year this dream is closer than ever to being realized. All pre-election polls give a landslide victory for the opposition party Tisza.

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At the end of March , Magyar’s party was ahead of Fidesz, according to various polls, by 10–12 % of the votes. The rest of the election participants are far behind: the nationalist party Mi Hazánk (Our Motherland) is teetering on the verge of entering parliament, two more - the Democratic Coalition and the Two-Tailed Dog Party - will receive around 1%. Many other well-known parties refused to participate in the elections in order to help Tisa win.

However, the electoral system in Hungary is complicated, so experts and activists predict the outcome of the elections with caution. Of the 199 members of parliament, 93 are elected from party lists, and another 106 from single-mandate constituencies, where surprises are always possible.

Journalist Nilash, however, is optimistic. He recalls that if in the last elections Orban won in 87 majoritarian constituencies, and in this campaign he first promised to win in 80, then at one of the recent meetings he admitted that Fidesz would definitely take 60-65 constituencies. “Even though this figure is high, it is clear that he is constantly lowering even his own expectations,” says Nilash. According to political scientist Biro, Fidesz will win, at best, 50-55 single-member constituencies, which will clearly not be enough for an overall victory.

At one of the recent closed meetings, Orban, according to journalist Nilas, admitted that previously Fidesz received two-thirds of the deputies in parliament (which gives a constitutional majority, and therefore almost complete control over the country) not because the party is supported by so many Hungarians, but due to the peculiarities of the electoral system.

“So he wanted to mobilize his voters so that they would not think that Orbán had victory in his pocket. That is, he is no longer trying to lure other groups of voters, but is trying to convince at least the core of Fidesz supporters to come to the polls, which is why the campaign language is becoming more and more harsh,” explains the journalist.

Hungary's main enemy

Orbán's plan is simple: to make people afraid of war and Ukraine, so that they do not think about Hungary's internal problems or believe that external circumstances are to blame for the failures. “We have had no GDP growth for a year now, although Orban himself and his ministers constantly promise 3-4%. If nothing works, then the blame must be placed on someone, and not on the government itself,” says Nilash.

This feint helped Orban in the previous parliamentary elections in 2022. “Before those elections there was a feeling that the opposition could finally defeat Fidesz, but the outbreak of the war saved Orban. The rhetoric: this war does not concern us, we are against the war, we are against sanctions concerning Russia, convinced the Hungarian electorate, so Fidesz decided that this could help now,” says political scientist Biro.

And it’s not that none of the Hungarians believe in this, to put it mildly, non-obvious message about Zelensky, who wants to drag Hungary into a war. Intellectuals in Budapest may wrinkle their faces, but the fact remains: among the EU countries, support for Zelensky and Ukraine is lower only in Greece.

“I am often asked why the government put Zelensky on its election billboards. They are surprised: isn’t he a hero for the Hungarians? Not at all! Zelensky’s unpopularity is obvious, so Orbán’s decision to make him the main enemy of the campaign is logical,” explains political scientist Peter Kreko.

All my interlocutors say that many Hungarians are afraid of Ukraine. Philologist Judit Vertes recalls how recently in a sauna one man, in a conversation with her, repeated all of Orban’s narratives, called Zelensky a clown and “killer of Hungarians.”

“When you tell such people that in France or Germany Orban is not in power, but their soldiers are still not participating in the war, they answer you: so what? That’s it for now!” - says journalist Nilash.

He attributes this obstinacy to propaganda on state television. “This is actually Fidesz television, because our entire state apparatus has long been part of the party. And on TV they say that there is a war going on, but as if some kind of natural disaster had befallen Ukraine, they talk about bombing again, difficulties again, but they don’t say why. You can listen to the news about the war in Ukraine without the word “Russia” at all, or it will be hidden somewhere far away,” he says.

The journalist gives another example: “At the briefing, the head of Orban’s office, Gergely Guillas, himself will not mention that Russia is an aggressor. But if you ask him directly: who attacked Ukraine? - he, of course, will answer that Russia.”

The alarming sentiments of the Hungarians were also reinforced by Zelensky himself, who in early March said that he would give the Armed Forces of Ukraine the address of “one person in the European Union” if he continued to block European aid to Kiev. “It was a very, very bad joke and it really helped Orban, who after that called his family and asked them not to worry (this call was shown on television). It turned out that Ukrainians are really dangerous. As a result, many Hungarians thought: Orban is bad, but he is our bad. Do you understand? — says political scientist Sanja Tepavcevic.

Because of this, according to Nilas, even many voters who are negative towards Orban have distrust in the Ukrainian government.

Transcarpathian question

A key role in the at least suspicious attitude of Hungarians towards Ukraine was played by Kiev’s decision to recognize Ukrainian as the only official language of the country (in particular, school education is completely translated into the national language), which came into force under Zelensky. The idea was to reduce Russian influence in eastern Ukraine, but at the same time it also affected about 150 thousand Hungarians living compactly in Transcarpathia.

“In Hungary, this was taken very painfully, and from that moment on, Ukraine became public enemy number one,” says Tepavcevic. “When the war began, Orban came up with his own mantra: we are against the war, this is not our war, let them fight, the main thing is not to drag us in.” And who are we? Hungarians from Transcarpathia, who, having Hungarian citizenship, were mobilized into the army as Ukrainian citizens. But [in Fidesz] they say: the evil, terrible Zelensky is dragging us into a war, sending our guys there to fight for him.”

People with higher education have almost completely abandoned Fidesz

However, political scientist Biro is confident that the problem is far-fetched, and Hungary should respond to the language problem in Ukraine like Romania and Poland. “There are probably some troubles in connection with language policy in education, but the same is true for the Romanian and Polish minorities in Ukraine, but these countries decided to support Ukraine in trouble, hoping that then the attitude towards these minorities will be appropriate,” he argues.

Political scientists agree that Orbán's plan is not working as he hoped anyway. Peter Kreko notes that the attempt to create an “artificial war psychosis” had almost no effect on Fidesz’s ratings; the numbers are not growing.

And in general, it is not easy to influence the outcome of the elections, because Hungarian society is divided approximately in half: the young, educated, living in cities - for Tisza, the elderly, who have not studied at institutions, living in the provinces - for Fidesz. “People with higher education have almost completely abandoned Fidesz,” says Biro.

Conservative Brotherhood

The public at Orban's rallies really cannot be called refined. As the campaign progressed, Orbán, who clearly felt he was losing, began touring the country giving speeches. On March 31, he was in the town of Ocsa, a town of nine thousand, an hour away by train from Budapest. By 6 o'clock in the evening, probably several thousand people had gathered here.

In the tents around the stage they sell merchandise from the Minister of Construction and Transport Janos Lazar (one of the headliners of the Fidesz election campaign), including - to my surprise - dolls of the politician himself. In the tent next door you can take a Hungarian flag or a sign with Zelensky and Magyar and the inscription “Stop the war.”

With great difficulty I manage to talk to a young girl who came to Orban’s rally with her whole family. I ask her why she supports the Prime Minister. “We don’t want to go to war,” she repeats the main argument of Orbán’s propaganda. - For me this is the main thing! I don't want to go to war and I don't want my family members to go. My mother is a doctor, and she will definitely have to go if war breaks out.”

Two more reasons for her to vote for Fidesz are discounts on the purchase of a new house and, it seems, preferential mortgages. She could not answer questions about Putin and Ukraine.

The second interviewee, Zoltan (name changed at his request), a 50-year-old man with graying stubble, speaks much better English, having lived in Ireland for eight years. He is a welder and left Hungary before Orbán’s rule, but returned in 2014, when the prime minister was already in power: “Before Orbán, everything in Hungary was terribly expensive, but he made the workers’ lives much better.”

Zoltan decided to vote for Orbán because he “supports the Hungarian people, families and is waging a bigger war against the European Union, which imposes LGBTQ+ and immigrants on [everyone].” “I don’t have a problem with them, but we don’t need that. Orbán protects us,” Zoltan replies.

He assures me that he worries about the Ukrainians, that he feels sorry for them, but not for the government and Zelensky.

“I’m not sure that people want the same thing as Zelensky, he is very aggressive, and we Hungarians don’t want anything to do with the war,” explains the welder.

“I’m not afraid, but they [Ukraine] have a much larger army, and nowadays anything can happen. They're transporting this fucking money !" - he says, already a little out of place listing all of Orbán’s election moves.

Of course, I ask Zoltan about Russia, and he unexpectedly honestly answers that he likes Putin. “I hope I won’t have problems because of this, but he speaks very correctly about the problems of the European Union,” says the welder and admits that he actually knows almost nothing about Russia. — I have no idea how people live in Russia now, but it looks like a conservative country. I see that the EU is now doing in Hungary what socialism did 59 years ago. Now it is necessary for each country to preserve its traditions, I don’t want Muslims, I want the church, that’s why I support Orban.”

“It’s unclear who started the war,” says Zoltan and talks about his friend from Donbass, who told him that Ukrainians have not liked Russians for a long time and began shooting 10 years before the start of the war. “If Russia had supplied missiles to Mexico, the United States would have done the same [started a war], but the United States was advancing into Ukraine.”

Next to us, several strong young people begin to loudly chant: “Hungary! Hungary!" and something (probably negative) about Ukraine. Zoltan calls Magyar an “unprepared drug addict prime minister” and high-fives me with the words “Orban and Putin - yay! But end this stupid war already.”

Before saying goodbye, Zoltan looks at me intently and asks: “Are you really from Russia? Not a Ukrainian spy? These are dangerous times!” - after this he laughs, but still does not refuse to look at the cover of the passport.

Orban speaks without a piece of paper for about half an hour. The words “war”, “Ukraine”, “Europe” and “billions” are often heard, as well as something about the “blockade of Russian energy” (the Druzhba gas pipeline, which carries fuel to Hungary and Slovakia, was damaged and has not been working since January, and Orban accuses Kyiv of deliberately delaying repairs).

On stage, Orbán does not look at all like an evil dictator (or, say, Putin), but rather like a kind uncle from the village. He constantly grimaces, gesticulates, and jokes every now and then. The crowd responds by bursting into laughter and waving flags in greeting. They saw off Orban with an ovation and chants: “Viktor! Victor!"

Judith Vertes calls Fidesz voters a sect. “You won’t not believe in God simply because your life somehow didn’t work out that way, right? You will continue to do so if you truly believe. Fidesz too. There have been so many scandals, so many terrible things, but nevertheless they vote for the party, they are not interested in reality,” she says.

Valdai Club

However, Orban still has educated supporters. For example, journalist Gabor Stier, head of the foreign policy department of the pro-government newspaper Magyar Nemzet, whose Facebook cover does not even depict the Prime Minister of Hungary, but Putin. When I ask him about this, Gabor is surprised: as if he did not expect that I would be interested in this. He explains that he is proud to have interacted with Putin at meetings of the Valdai Club (Stier is a regular participant in its meetings).

Although Stier refrains from making radical assessments in his conversation with me, he clearly shares Orbán’s views on Ukraine. “She really interferes in the internal affairs of Hungary. I don’t think any of their agents are preparing anything here, but the fact that they closed Druzhba is a clear interference. They do not hide the fact that they are doing everything to make Orban lose,” says Stier, and later reminds that Ukraine is “not a democracy and adds Bandera to the pantheon of heroes.”

At the same time, even without my clarification, the journalist stipulates that when both Trump and Putin supported Orban, they expressed their opinion that the Hungarians, choosing between globalists and patriots, should choose the candidacy of the current prime minister. “This is a little different,” says Stier.

He admits that he is impressed by Putin. Stier studied in Russia and has been writing about it for many years; he has his own portal Moszkvater.com with three ships painted in the colors of the Russian flag.

“Do you know that in Russia people are imprisoned for any statement against the war?” - I ask.

“Yes, and what normal person would like that? Me too. I'm writing about this. And what’s happening with Telegram, I don’t support this Chinese version. But, unfortunately, Sovietization is also taking place in the West,” Stier replies.

Orbán shows that he is defending Hungary. Eight years ago - from migrants, four years ago - from the war, all these years - from the Brussels mainstream, and now - from Ukraine

The journalist, of course, will vote for Fidesz, although he is dissatisfied with the party. “This is not the Fidesz we once loved. Now there is corruption, and something could be done better in the economy. And this style is that we behave like kings, pretending that we know everything and can do everything. But in foreign policy, I almost completely support Orban’s line on sovereignty and patriotism, because Europe is in a very deep crisis, it is going into the abyss,” says Stier. He believes that Orban does not want to leave the European Union, but “to occupy it and impose his ideological approach.”

Stier does not like the abundance of election advertising with Zelensky, but he believes that “it works.” “Orbán shows that he is defending Hungary. This is the main thing. Eight years ago - from migrants, four years ago - from the war, all these years - from the Brussels mainstream, and now - from Ukraine,” says Stier.

According to the journalist, Tisa is playing the “Russian card”, and if it loses, it will blame everything on Russian interference, after which something “worse than protests” may begin. “Even those who will vote for Fidesz expect renewal from the party,” says Stier.

Revolution in consciousness

In the center of Budapest on Andrássy Avenue there is the House of Terror Museum. In fact, it is dedicated to two totalitarian ideologies that successively enslaved Hungary in the middle of the 20th century (although there is much more information about communism than about Nazism). In several halls they talk, in particular, about the suppression of the Hungarian uprising of 1956 by Soviet troops. Here, disturbing music plays, on the screen a Soviet soldier writes on a sign “Budapest” in Russian, then the corpses of citizens, destroyed buildings, a joyful Stalin. On the wall is an imitation of the then popular graffiti “Russians go home.” I’ve seen it myself – groups of high school students are brought to this museum in the morning.

Relations between Hungary and Russia, recalls political scientist Tepavcevic, have historically been bad. In addition to 1956, one can recall the Russian suppression of another Hungarian revolution in 1848 and the communist Hungarian regime established and existed under the control of the USSR.

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According to philologist Judit Vertes, now the attitude of Hungarians towards Russia is changing, and Fidesz is contributing to this. “It seems that 1956 is a sacred topic, but, nevertheless, the Hungarian government did not react in any way to the fact that in the new history textbook in Russia literally one sentence was written about the uprising, and such that it was almost a counter-revolution of some Nazi hooligans,” she says. “If Zelensky had said something like that, there would have been a huge diplomatic scandal, the ambassador would have been summoned. And then the Minister of Foreign Affairs [Peter Szijjártó], a good friend of Lavrov, said: it is their sovereign business to interpret the Hungarian events.”

She calls “the mystery of the century” how Fidesz managed to “reorient its voters” in a matter of years: “Hungarians were at least restrained towards Russia, hated the Soviet Union, and in a couple of years became almost the biggest Russophiles.”

“Orbán has cleverly remade everything, because now even the story of 1956 has taken on a completely different shade. They say that at that time there was the Soviet Union, that is, the Ukrainians also attacked us, and they came to us from there. Now this dangerous neighbor is at war with Russia, which means we can also be attacked,” explains Tepavcevic.

True, according to journalist Nilash, people simply accepted Fidesz’s pragmatic position. Orbán's ministers say that Hungarians do not need to love Russians, the country only needs raw materials that provide economic growth and social security.

Orban and Russia

It is customary in the international media to call Orban a pro-Russian politician or at least Putin’s main friend in the European Union. You don’t have to look far for confirmation of this thesis: Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó constantly travels to Russia, calls his colleague Lavrov and even fulfills his requests to save some Russian oligarchs from sanctions.

However, in Hungary no one is in a hurry to label the prime minister as a “pro-Russian politician.” He is considered more of a pragmatist who has played with Hungary’s sovereign course. “His first speech, in my opinion, was made in 1989 at the reburial of Imre Nagy (the main figure of the 1956 uprising - author's note) . Orban gave a fiery speech in which he said that it was necessary to expel all Russians, that it was impossible for Soviet soldiers to remain here. People applauded him and shouted: “Down with the Russians!”,” recalls Judit. In her apartment there are a lot of books in Russian, photographs of Lily Brik, posters from Russia, Soviet trinkets. She graduated from the Faculty of Philology and teaches Hungarian for Russian speakers and Russian for Hungarians.

Political scientist Tepavcevic recalls that Orban in the late 2000s defeated the socialists (who developed partnerships with Russia) on “anti-Gazprom slogans,” since Russia was then waging “oil and gas wars” with Ukraine due to problems with transit and periodically suspending energy supplies. “At that time, Fidesz had very negative rhetoric towards Russia and especially towards Putin,” she says.

Judit Vertes explains Orbán's previous rhetoric by saying that he, a very conservative man, born in a village and raised in a traditional family, came to Budapest, where turbulent revolutionary processes were going on at that time, and was briefly inspired by new ideas, but they were certainly not his deep political convictions.

Then, says Tepavcevic, the economic crisis of 2008 happened, which, of course, also affected Hungary. The Navy, which gave loans to the country, demanded that Orban, who had already come to power, reduce pensions and social benefits. He refused and from the end of 2012 - beginning of 2013 began to “open up to the East,” Russia and China. “This was explained by the reluctance to depend on the European Union in everything and resulted in the fact that now Hungary is the Chinese hub of the European Union, depends on Russian energy resources and is building a nuclear reactor in Paks with a Russian loan,” says Tepavcevic.

Because of this economic dependence, political scientist Zoltan Biro in an interview with Meduza in 2022 called Orban a pro-Russian politician, but now he is not so categorical. “He is a corrupt official, first of all, and some kind of corruption scheme makes the Hungarian leadership and the Prime Minister personally dependent on Moscow,” says Biro.

Nilash clarifies: “The government always says that if it were not for Russian gas and oil, the raw materials would be three times more expensive. But he does not name a specific amount, because the Russian side does not want to publish the terms of the contract. But in our country gasoline costs the same or slightly higher than in Austria (in fact, in Hungary the price of gasoline is one of the lowest in the European Union. - Author's note) , so I assume that they probably buy it cheaper, but sell the finished product for the same price, and the difference goes to the state-owned company MOL." I agree that there is room for corruption here, even Stier: “We pay 15–20% less for oil and gas, and from this MOL and Orbán’s entourage receive money, but that is why gas and heating prices are not so high in Hungary.”

According to Tepavcevic, it only seems that Orban is Putin’s best friend in the European Union, but in reality there is no friendship, much less love, just common interests. She recalls that Orban, unlike Slovak leader Robert Fico, was not at the 80th anniversary of Victory Day in Moscow in 2025. “Orban said: thank you for the offer, but I can’t go there because we lost that war,” and he didn’t go. This proves what I see every day in Orbán’s rhetoric,” says Tepavcevic. — He never said that “well done Putin for attacking, and that Zelensky started the war.” He always said and says that it is very bad for Hungary that the war has begun, and that we are only suffering from it.”

No one understands exactly how much Russian influence there is on Orban. Rumors about the work of Russian political strategists in these elections were never confirmed. “As for Russian assistance, numerous news reports, reports of planned Russian interference in the elections through political strategists, through GRU agents sent to Budapest, through a planned assassination attempt, as reported in the Washington Post, leaks about friendly conversations between the Hungarian Foreign Minister and the Russian Foreign Minister - all this transparency makes it much more difficult for Russia to provide significant assistance to the Hungarian government in the run-up to the elections,” states Peter Kreko.

Stier insists that Orbán is driven primarily by pragmatism in his ties with Russia. “He respects Putin, he is impressed by him, you can feel it. He has already admitted that Russia is not the Soviet Union. I think so too. And their similarity is in conservatism: these are old ordinary values, family.”

“Don’t you think that Orban is helping Putin in the war with his position on Ukraine and on sanctions against Russia?” - I ask Stir.

“I seriously think that this is a pro-Hungarian policy, not a pro-Russian one. If it’s good for Putin, well, okay,” he replies.

Honesty and risk

The leader of the Tisza party, Peter Magyar, unlike Orban, traveled all over the country during the election campaign, managing to hold five or six events a day. Мне удалось посетить его митинг в понедельник, 30 марта, в 10:30 утра в одном из пригородов Будапешта — 20-тысячном Вечеше. На площади собралось несколько сот человек (меньше, чем на мероприятии Орбана, но многие люди в это время на работе, да и день выдался дождливый).

Пока все ждали лидера партии, я пообщался с его сторонниками. Индика и Ласло, муж и жена, фармацевт на пенсии и предприниматель, торгующий китайскими товарами, рассказали мне, почему поддерживают Мадьяра. Индика будет наблюдателем от «Тисы» на выборах и настаивает, что в ее городе большинство не поддерживают Орбана и его нападки на Украину.

«Правительство показывает Украину как врага, и те, кто соглашаются с ними, делают это только потому, что люди априори не хотят войны! — говорит она и признается, что в 1999 году голосовала за Орбана. — Нужно было сменить предыдущее правительство, да и он был в начале неплох, очень харизматичным политиком. Сейчас он уже не от мира сего, живет в своем воображении».

О Мадьяре они знают не слишком много.

«Менять правительство всегда рискованно, потому только со временем увидишь, собирается ли кандидат выполнять свои обещания. Но любое правительство будет лучше нынешнего», — отвечает Индика. «Мы верим ему, он честно показывает всё, что делал в прошлом, он ясный и чистый», — присоединяется к жене Ласло.

Роланд, бородатый молодой человек в очках, пришел на митинг с женой и двумя детьми. Он признается, что сначала был скептичен по отношению к Мадьяру, но со временем убедился, что тот идет в нужном направлении, «думает, как и большинство людей в этой стране», понимает, что нужно многое изменить.

Он уверен, что на пропаганду Орбана в Венгрии мало кто ведется, а Мадьяр прекратит особые отношения с Россией и будет поддерживать Евросоюз.

«Если будут выше цены на газ, но и зарплаты тоже, то это окей. Другие страны живут без российского газа счастливо (доля России в импорте трубопроводного газа в ЕС упала с 40% в 2021 году до примерно 6% в 2025 году, с учетом сжиженного газа за Россией остается около 13% газового импорта ЕС в прошлом году. — Прим. авт.) , так что это не самое главное», — отвечает Роланд, и я не удивляюсь, когда узнаю, что он работает в сфере IT.

На митинг никто не приходит со своими плакатами — партийные раздают бесплатно. Мадьяр, одетый по-молодежному, в черную куртку, из-под которой торчит капюшон серой толстовки, минут 15 выступает с грузовичка, говорит как по писаному. Когда произносит фамилию Орбана, собравшиеся свистят. В конце он спускается в первый ряд толпы, и, помахивая венгерским флагом, поет национальный гимн.

После окончания мероприятия Мадьяр выбирается из толпы окруживших его фанатов не меньше 10 минут — раздает автографы, делает селфи, постоянно улыбается. Как рок-звезда. Наконец, прыгает в «Шкоду» и уезжает, а сторонники машут ему вслед флажками.

Black box

«Мы сейчас голосуем против Орбана, а не за Петера Мадьяра. Я не большой его фанат, но он как таковой и не важен, — говорит филолог Юдит Вертеш — Когда вы боретесь за жизнь, то не смотрите, какого цвета спасательный корабль».

Она признается, что у нее нет иллюзий относительно Мадьяра, так как он вышел из «Фидес». «То, что в течение 15 лет для него там всё было хорошо, конечно, вызывает определенные вопросы, но альтернативы нет», — рассуждает Юдит.

Сообщив, что она «конечно, не психолог», Вертеш тут же диагностирует у Мадьяра «нарциссическое расстройство личности». «Понятно, что он тоже хочет власти, но мы знаем, что было здесь последние 16 лет при Орбане и что ничего хорошего не будет. Почему же не дать шанс другому человеку? Если хотя бы 5% того, что он говорит, — правда, то мы будем жить в другой стране», — говорит она. И тут же оговаривается, что шутит и понимает, что восстановить институты демократии займет очень много времени.

Юриста Петера Мадьяра еще недавно мало кто знал в Венгрии. Перед войной он был генеральным директором Центра студенческих кредитов, а широкой венгерской публике стал известен два года назад, когда президент Венгрии помиловала человека, который ранее пытался помочь педофилу избежать наказания. Бывшая жена Мадьяра как министр юстиции помилование подписала.

Мадьяр тогда обвинил «Фидес», в котором состоял с 2002 года, в коррумпированности. Интервью посмотрели миллионы человек, и Мадьяр, договорившись с небольшой партией «Тиса», ринулся в большую политику. «Правительство всегда о себе говорило, что мы ради детей, ради семей делаем всё что можем, а ок азалось, что это блеф. Кроме того, экономика уже четвертый год стояла на одном месте, и Мадьяр просто воспользовался моментом, когда уже набралось очень-очень много недовольства», — объясняет Биро секрет успеха Мадьяра.

За несколько месяцев он завоевал популярность, потому что у всех появилась надежда, что вот наконец-то что-то поменялось. На выборах в Европарламент в 2025 году «Тиса» получила 7 из 21 венгерских мандатов. Все мои собеседники признают, что прошлое Мадьяра в «Фидес» неожиданно сыграло ему на руку. «Это как блудный сын в Библии более симпатичен, чем тот человек, который был всегда рядом», — говорит Юдит Вертеш.

Но все-таки, напоминают себе будапештские интеллигенты, Мадьяр не либерал. В частности, «Тиса» в Европарламенте голосует примерно так же, как партия Орбана. «Он просто знает, что либерализм и все эти права человека важны для трех районов Будапешта, а он хочет, конечно, адресовать свой месседж как можно большему кругу избирателей», — признает Юдит. По мнению Нилаша, Мадьяр точно не будет преследовать ЛГБТК+, но сколько запретительных законов «Фидес» он отменит, журналист сказать затрудняется.

Орбан сейчас так испугался, что, если останется у власти, точно будет ликвидировать гражданское общество, оставшиеся независимые СМИ, выйдет из ЕС

«Его позиция по поводу того, что нужно защищать венгров, которые проживают за пределами Венгрии, ничуть не отличается от орбановской. Он тоже консервативный политик, он как Орбан в 2010 году, когда Фидес была типичной правоцентристской партией, — говорит Тепавчевич. — У нас, у кого нет консервативных взглядов, сейчас дилемма. За кого голосовать так, чтобы не проиграть, чтобы Венгрия совсем не укатилась в диктатуру».

Я спрашиваю у Юдит, почему она считает, что сейчас у Венгрии последний шанс остановить движение в пропасть, ведь не сажают же инакомыслящих, как в России, и выборы вон какие конкурентные.

«Я вижу всё в очень черных цветах и думаю, что если Орбан останется, тогда Венгрия окончательно станет на путь России. Думаю, тогда и будут сажать, — серьезно отвечает Юдит. — Орбан сейчас так испугался, что, если останется у власти, точно будет ликвидировать гражданское общество, оставшиеся независимые СМИ, выйдет из Европейского союза».

По ее словам, многие ее друзья находятся «на грани нервного срыва» и обещают покончить самоубийством, если Орбан победит.

Сторонник Орбана, журналист Штир называет Мадьяра «неуравновешенным нарциссом», чьи способности управлять страной под вопросом и которым движет жажда мести «Фидес». Впрочем, Штир признается, что понимает молодежь, и будь ему меньше лет, он и сам бы голосовал против Орбана. Он уверен, что, если «Тиса» выиграет, то экономическая программа будет классическая неолиберальная — поднимут налоги, а во внешней политике будут «вылизывать жопу европейского мейнстрима».

Кажется, это именно то, что импонирует в Мадьяре фил ологу Юдит Вертеш. Она признается, что программу «Тисы» не читала, но надеется, что после победы «Тисы» точно не случится «Хукзита».

Острова и однопартийность

Однажды, проходя мимо вокзала Ньюгати в центре Будапешта, я увидел похожую на врача женщину, которая раскладывала на небольшом пластмассовом стенде рекламные буклеты «Тисы» и сувениры. Тут же ее фотография красовалась на плакате вместе с лидером партийного списка Петером Мадьяром. Я понял: женщина — кандидат.

Она подтвердила это, но от интервью отказалась: извиняющимся тоном объяснила, что в партии запретили общаться с журналистами, только с избирателями.

«Это абсурдно, что кандидаты не имеют права давать интервью. Даже на избирательную встречу с будущим министром иностранных дел не пустили журналистов. Но поскольку они дилетанты в политике, видимо, в партии боятся, что они могут сказать что-то лишнее. Но это странно, что мы не знаем, что они на самом деле из себя представляют», — комментирует политолог Биро.

Преимущество «Тисы» в Будапеште огромное, но у 10–20% ее потенциальных избирателей к партии есть вопросы, отмечает Антал Чарды, который идет как беспартийный кандидат по одномандатному округу в центре Будапешта. «У меня как у оппозиционера нет причин обижать "Тису", но я не могу успокаивать тех, кто спрашивает не чистый ли лист, под которым мы подписываемся и не будет ли при "Тисе" почти такая же однопартийная система», — говорит он.

Нужно сказать, что большинство кандидатов «Тисы» малоизвестны широкой публике и на своих предвыборных плакатах они обязательно вместе с Петером Мадьяром. «Это риск, что депутатами станут люди, которые ни политическую систему не знают, ни принципов ежедневной работы. У "Тисы" есть фракция в городском совете Будапешта, и мы видели, что ее депутаты с помощью "Википедии" пытаются подавать инициативы, — рассуждает политик. — Возможно, Мадьяр надеется, что неопытными людьми будет проще управлять из партии».

Юдит Вертеш надеется, что новые люди в венгерской политике — это к лучшему. Она и профессор славистики Жужа Хетени, которую попросили из Будапештского университета за неправильные взгляды на Россию (она преподавала русскую литературу, а параллельно выступала на митингах памяти Навального и писала статьи о репрессивной политике Путина), рассчитывают на так называемые «Острова Тисы» — низовые активистские ячейки.

«Люди жили в маленьких городках, начали понимать, что Орбан им больше не нужен и сами стали собираться в группы. К "Тисе" они примкнули уже потом, поэтому есть надежда, что "Острова" не дадут потом Мадьяру съехать с глузду, и за ним будет народный контроль», — говорит Хетени.

Юдит Вертеш в кампании «Тисы» активно не участвует (и очень из-за этого переживает), но передала эту роль своей матери. «Ей 79 лет, но она активно участвует в деятельности "Острова Тисы", она работает волонтером и переводит деньги каждый месяц», — говорит Юдит. Сама она записалась наблюдателем на выборы.

«А еще я срываю плакаты "Фидеса"», — говорит она гордо.

Если победит Мадьяр

Большой вопрос, что в случае своей победы сможет поменять в Венгрии Мадьяр. Судя по всему, конституционного большинства у оппозиции не будет. «Без двух третей в парламенте это может быть проблемой, потому что приближенные к "Фидес" люди стоят во главе Конституционного суда, прокуратуры и вполне могут влиять на исход расследований, могут всё замедлять. Но Польша может быть примером, где сразу уволили верхушку гостелевидения. Это уже изменит атмосферу, не будет всей этой пропаганды», — рассуждает журналист Нилаш.

Политолог Креко уверен, что поворота на 180 градусов в отношениях с Россией, да и с Украиной не будет. «Что касается Украины, то Мадьяр в качестве жеста солидарности посещал Киев после того, как разбомбили детский госпиталь. Да, Венгрия не станет сразу как балтийские страны, максимально дружественные к Украине, но голосований в Европе против финансовой поддержки Украины и прямой эскалации в двусторонних отношениях не будет», — говорит он. По мнению Нилаша, Венгрия в отношениях с Украиной будет пассивной, но хорошо уже то, что она перестанет быть «палкой в колесах», а этой ролью Орбан очень гордится.

«Что касается отношений с Россией, то Путин, известный своим прагматичным подходом к внешней политике, попробует наладить стабильные отношения и с новым правительством. Но если разница на выборах будет небольшой, то Москва может сделать ставку н а скорое возвращение Орбана в результате досрочных выборов», — считает политолог Креко.

Многие в Венгрии опасаются, что в случае достойного поражения Орбана, экономика при «Тисе» не успеет заработать нормально, сменить людей на ключевых постах не удастся, придет разочарование, будут назначены досрочные выборы, на которых Орбан вернется в ореоле спасителя. «Я могу себе представить, что сеть "Фидес" такая сильная, что года два может продержаться, хотя другие говорят, что всё рухнет, потому что люди будут себя спасать и сотрудничать с новым правительством», — говорит Нилаш.

«А вы думаете, “Тиса” откажется от российских нефти и газа?» — спрашиваю я Биро.

«Во-первых, в 2027 году она просто должна это сделать, потому что Европейский союз принял такое ультимативное решение (на самом деле отказаться от российской нефти Венгрии будет непросто — для этого нужно менять логистику и перестраивать НПЗ п од другие марки нефти. У других стран ЕС на это ушло несколько лет. — Прим. авт.) . Плюс в "Тисе" говорят, что выбор идет о том, оставаться ли частью Запада или быть протекторатом России. Поэтому, скорее всего, он не будет противостоять тому, что требуется со стороны Брюсселя», — отвечает он.

Впрочем, даже либеральный оппозиционный политик Антал Чарды вопрос отказа от российских энергоресурсов считает «сложным». «Думаю, что пока Россия является агрессором, совершенно невозможно покупать нефть и финансировать войну — по моральным соображениям. Но в случае мира надо обсуждать, как поддерживать экономику, и понятно, что сланцевая нефть и сжиженный газ дороже. Если можно вернуться к миру и, главное, к доверию, то нужно будет восстановить эти отношения», — говорит он.

Единственный из моих собеседников, кто несмотря ни на что верит в победу Орбана, — это журналист Штир. Он считает, что «Фидес» победит с очень небольшим отрывом, но именно такой сценарий считает идеальным итогом выборов.

«В остальных странах Европы патриоты и суверенисты развиваются, медленно, но усиливаются, а в Венгрии он и уже 16 лет у власти. И если у нас сейчас, вопреки европейскому тренду, "Фидес" проиграет — это будет очень смешно и очень по-венгерски», — резюмирует Штир.