The price of peace with Israel for Lebanon is civil war. Michael Pellivert - about what is happening in the Middle East

Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory do not stop, and shelling of the Israeli north continues. This is happening despite a formal truce and negotiations mediated by the United States, and calls into question the very possibility of full peace between countries. What is actually hindering its achievement: Lebanon's internal problems or the influence of Iran? Why is Türkiye upping the ante around Cyprus and could it become a new source of instability? And how is the balance of power changing in the Arabian Peninsula due to the Iranian war? Republic talked about this with Israeli political scientist and former diplomat Mikhail Pellivert .

— First of all, let me congratulate you on Independence Day, which was celebrated a few days ago.

- Thank you. In terms of the age of countries, this age is, of course, children’s. 78 years old.

— Still, this is more than Soviet Russia could manage.

— ( Laughs. ) In any case, building a country is not a sprint, but a marathon. This is probably how we should approach it. I understand that many people look at the glass and say it is half empty, others say it is half full. Despite the difficult past two and a half years, these 78 years of Israel are without a doubt a great success story.

— In your opinion, what can be recorded today as signs that Israel’s independence is strengthening, and what things today most likely indicate a decrease in the country’s independence?

— In light of the events taking place in the Middle East, we have become a country that is called super power. That is, a country that can simultaneously conduct military operations in three or four countries: Lebanon, Syria, Iran, operations against the Houthis. Plus the ongoing very difficult situation in the Gaza Strip.

Independence, in principle, lies in the ability to make decisions depending on a particular political situation or military situation. Unfortunately, the answer to your question is mainly related to the military agenda. It is the ability to defend oneself within the political priorities set by the current government. Another government may set them differently.

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