War

1531st day. The “window of opportunity” for the Kremlin to attack Europe is open right now, the EU believes. But they still consider this scenario unlikely

Since February 24, 2022, Meduza has been broadcasting live about the Russian-Ukrainian war. We publish your letters every day because we are sure that we need to continue talking about the war. Share with us your thoughts about the war. What feelings are you experiencing? How does war affect your life and your attitude towards the world? If you have a story related to the war, tell it . The feedback form is at the end of this article. A review of the previous day can be read here .

Russia

European governments believe that Russia may try to test NATO's strength and strike one of the alliance members in the next two years, Politicowrites , citing sources. Brussels believes that Vladimir Putin now has a “window of opportunity” open.

The publication names two main reasons why there is a “window of opportunity” for an attack right now. Firstly, Donald Trump will be in power in the United States for another two years, who has previously made it clear that he is skeptical about the potential protection of NATO allies. Secondly, the emergency measures of the European Union itself, aimed at strengthening its own defense, according to the plan, will give real results only by 2030.

One source told Politico what Europe fears: If Republicans perform poorly in November's congressional elections, Trump could further increase pressure on NATO and Europe. Putin can take advantage of this.

At the same time, the publication emphasizes, in Brussels they still consider this option unlikely - since they believe that Russia is greatly exhausted in the war with Ukraine and will not be able to afford a full-scale “second front.”

A hybrid scenario, rather than a direct attack, may be slightly more likely, Mika Aaltola, a member of the European Parliament's foreign affairs committee, told Politico. For example, Putin will try to create a provocation in the border region, hoping that there will be a split in NATO over whether this provocation is sufficient to trigger Article 5 of the alliance's mutual defense charter. In this way, the Kremlin could potentially put pressure on Ukraine’s European allies while avoiding direct conflict with the United States.

According to Aaltola, this could be some kind of operation using drones - either in the Baltic Sea or, for example, in the Arctic. If this is not a full-fledged invasion across the border, the United States in such a situation “can say that this is not so important” and, given its own busyness in the Middle East, can limit itself to inviting Europe to “negotiate with Russia,” the parliamentarian believes.

At the same time, the official assessment of the likelihood of direct conflict remains low. “I find this extremely unlikely. Putin’s suicidal moves have their limits — especially when there is no obvious and immediate benefit,” a senior NATO diplomat told Politico.

A source in one of the European defense departments also noted that although the Russian authorities are committed to confrontation with the West in the long term, there is no direct threat to NATO countries in the near future due to the participation of the Russian army in the war with Ukraine. “This does not mean that we should not remain vigilant,” he stressed.

A similar point of view was expressed by Estonian President Alar Karis. He noted that Russia is now “very busy in Ukraine” and does not have sufficient capabilities to try to wage war against the Baltic countries as well. However, he emphasized that the authorities still do not rule out and are preparing for this scenario - because “no one expected a war in Ukraine.”

War in photographs. "Immortal Regiment" at the front

War through the eyes of Meduza readers

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Meduza's readers live in different countries and have different attitudes towards the war. We publish your letters to see this event through your eyes. Our editors try to present all points of view, even if they do not coincide with the editorial position. However, in accordance with the Meduza code, we do not publish messages that contain “hate speech,” justify the murder of civilians, or express direct support for an aggressive war.

This letter contains obscenities.

Anonymous reader . That's fucked up. These are my thoughts for the last four years (hopefully not the last of my life). I’ve never been superstitious, but now I just wanted to replace the “last” with “extreme”.

War affects me this way: I, just like Europeans, Americans and a bunch of other people who live in peaceful countries, wake up, have breakfast, work and during breaks watch films about successful success. And yet I continue to compare myself with someone and strive for this very successful success. I continue to try to achieve KPIs at work and think about what to invest in so that in 30 years I will not be left without a pension.

I even try to listen to music: I love it very much. And every time I turn it on all the way to sing to my heart’s content and at least for a second let go of the thought that I could die at any moment, the alarm starts screaming. For some reason, the music on my phone doesn’t turn off when this fucking howl comes on, so the sounds mix for a second, and this mixing is probably the best description of life in Ukraine now.

What else? I almost stopped leaving the house. Because when the alarm screams (and it screams often), I immediately run to the basement. I only have a minute and a half or so if it's ballistics, so I like to stay as close to cover as possible.

One of the most exciting feelings I’ve experienced over the past year is not an orgasm, but when the alarm is screaming, and you’re already on the subway (coincidentally, you were on your way to get a haircut).

I try to hold on to the idea that such precautions will save me, although perhaps it’s just luck, and the people who say “it will fly, it will fly” are right. Because, to be honest, living like this is terribly tiring.

All winter I slept dressed: not only because it was cold, but so that I could quickly run to the basement in the middle of the night. I really lack the confidence that I can sleep soundly all night in my pajamas. I just want to sleep in my pajamas again.

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