
The Russian government responded to Vladimir Putin’s question about why the trajectory of macro indicators is below the forecasts of the Cabinet itself. In response, the ministers simply worsened their official forecasts, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes .
According to the updated estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development, GDP growth in 2026 is projected to be only 0.4% (previously growth was expected at 2.4%, which was later revised to 1.3%). The growth of real incomes of the population will actually stop - 1.6% after 4.4% in 2025. In addition, the fall in investment this year will be 3.5% in the conservative scenario or 1.5% in the base case. Experts note that the increase in taxes led to a drop in collections - total tax revenues to the consolidated budget fell by 8.2%.
🔵 In mid-April, Putin explained the fall in GDP in the first months of 2026 by long weekends and “seasonal factors.” At the same time, he demanded from the government “detailed reports” on the situation in the economy, “on why the trajectory of macro indicators is below expectations.”
🔵 The Ministry of Economic Development later stated that in the first quarter of 2026, Russian GDP fell by 0.3% compared to the same period last year - this is the first quarterly decline since the beginning of 2023.