Siluanov admitted for the first time the growth of the budget deficit

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said at SPIEF that the federal budget deficit in 2026 will “increase slightly” compared to the target of 1.6% of GDP. According to him, this will not lead to a significant increase in domestic borrowing - the volume of gross loans on the market remains at the level of 5.5 trillion rubles. The deficit will be covered from “budget balances,” “sales of assets, and so on.”

The wording “will increase somewhat” is at odds with what is known about the real state of affairs. According to Bloomberg, officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank warned Putin about unaffordable military spending: the Defense Ministry deficit in 2026 could reach 3 trillion rubles. A February letter from Siluanov himself estimated additional military spending at 2–4 trillion rubles over the approved 16.84 trillion. In January-April, the deficit has already reached 5.9 trillion rubles, or 2.5% of GDP, one and a half times more than the annual plan.

Oil and gas revenues in May partially improved the picture - an increase of 32% year-on-year against the backdrop of the war in Iran. But total revenues for five months are only a third of the annual plan: 2.98 trillion of the 8.92 trillion rubles budgeted for 2026.