New front in Ukraine: can Belarus enter the war

What experts and politicians say

Ukraine announces preparations to repel an offensive from Belarus. Minefields are being laid and fortifications are being built in the border area, and security services are intensifying checks on the population. Representatives of the Ukrainian army announce their intended targets on Belarusian territory. “Layout” tells how real the risk of Minsk entering the war is.

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How do we know about a possible attack on Ukraine from Belarus?

Vladimir Zelensky said on May 2 that “unusual activity” was noticed on the part of Belarus near the Ukrainian border. “Ukraine is ready to defend its people, its sovereignty, and everyone should understand this, whoever they are trying to drag into any aggressive activity against Ukraine,” he wrote, without explaining what he was talking about.

Ukrainian media explained that the Belarusian side is updating the border road infrastructure and constructing artillery positions. It was noted that the Ukrainian side has not yet recorded any signs of preparation for an immediate offensive.

Two weeks later, on May 15, Zelensky said that Moscow was considering plans for operations from the territory of Belarus - either against the Chernigov-Kyiv direction in Ukraine, or against one of the NATO countries on the northern Belarusian border (where Lithuania and Latvia are located). “Ukraine owns the details of the conversation between Russia and Belarus,” he said. “Ukraine will certainly defend itself and its people if Alexander Lukashenko makes a mistake and decides to support this Russian intention as well.”

Zelensky did not speak about the direct participation of Belarus in the war; President Alexander Lukashenko also denies it. “Even if we are drawn into a war, including if it is against Ukraine, only in one case - if they commit aggression against us. We are not going to get drawn into a war in Ukraine. There is no need for this,” he told reporters on May 21.

Could Belarus join the Russian invasion?

At the beginning of the war, in 2022, the Russian army attacked Ukraine from the territory of Belarus - advancing on Kyiv from two sides, through Pripyat and Chernigov. From the Ukrainian capital to the border is about 100 kilometers, then the Russian army managed to approach the borders of the city in just one day - now it looks absolutely impossible.

Russia used military bases and airfields on the territory of Belarus, launched missile strikes from the territory of the country, and housed the wounded in local military hospitals, but the Belarusian military did not take direct part in the hostilities.

The country's army consists of approximately 49 thousand people, during the war it can be replenished with 150-300 thousand reservists. About 6.5 thousand soldiers and sergeants are contract soldiers, some officers are regularly called up from the reserves, and they are armed mainly with modernized Soviet models of equipment. It will most likely not be possible to carry out offensive actions against Ukraine with such forces.

About 27% of the country's population supports the actions of Russian troops in Ukraine, according to an October iSANS opinion poll, while 34% are against it. Almost 70% support peace talks. With such sentiments, the conscript army is unlikely to be ready for war on foreign territory, and most experts believe that Minsk will not engage in hostilities on its own. “Part of Lukashenko’s unspoken agreement with society was a promise not to drag the country into someone else’s destructive war,” notes The National Interest.

A more realistic option seems to be one in which Belarus could once again provide territory for the Russian military to attack. But there is no independent confirmation of the preparation of such an offensive. The American Institute for the Study of War notes that Russia likely does not have sufficient reserves to launch such an operation.

There were also no signs of the creation of a sufficient strike force on the border. Institute analysts believe that Moscow may try to persuade Lukashenko to use Belarusian territory for drone attacks in Western and Northwestern Ukraine, including the railway from Poland . Such attacks have not yet been recorded.

What might a new Russian offensive from Belarus look like?

If Moscow nevertheless gathered forces for an offensive, the Belarusian direction could be used to divert Ukrainian forces from the east of the country, where Russia is trying to complete the seizure of the Donetsk region. Moscow could carry out diversionary strikes towards Kyiv or cut off logistics supply routes from Poland.

Such a strike could create serious logistical problems for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and require the transfer of tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, notes senior researcher at the Hudson Institute Luke Kofi (in his article, he considers the possibility of such a maneuver being carried out by the Belarusian army).

However, a hypothetical offensive towards Kyiv or Chernigov in 2026 will look different than in 2022: drones have made it impossible for large equipment to advance, border lines are covered with minefields and fortifications, and the Ukrainian military has declared its readiness to strike deep into Belarusian territory.

“The first 500 targets have already been identified. Free and very practical advice: don’t stand in the crosshairs of Ukraine,” Robert Brovdi, Commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces, wrote on Facebook on May 26.

Photo: Closed border crossing between Poland and Belarus in Yarilovka. 2023 Attila Husejnow/SOPA Images/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect

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