In Russia, it seems, there is no region left that has not been affected by the gasoline crisis. Is there really no way to save the situation?

Russia is experiencing an acute phase of the gasoline crisis. We have already written that some indicators - for example, a drop in oil refining volumes to multi-year lows and at the same time a high volume of exports of raw materials - indirectly indicate that we are witnessing a truly serious collapse against the backdrop of a campaign of long-range strikes by the Ukrainian army against refineries and other targets in the interior of the country. Panic sentiment due to the flood of messages from the regions about limiting the supply of gasoline to one person is also contributing to the intensification of the crisis. Just in the last couple of days:

• in the Kursk region it was prohibited to pour gasoline into cans;
• in the Bryansk region the same restriction was introduced ;
• in the Belgorod region, a number of restrictions have been adopted at various networks of gas stations (gas stations) - for example, Rosneft banned the sale of canisters, and Gazprom Neft temporarily suspended the sale of AI-95 gasoline;
• in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, there are also “restrictions on the volume of fuel supplied” that have not been specified by the authorities;
• in Adygea - “temporary restrictions on the volume of refueling of passenger cars”;
• in the Samara region, restrictions were introduced for two weeks to 40 liters of gasoline and up to 100 liters of diesel for passenger cars and stopped the supply of fuel in cans;
• in the Lipetsk region, until June 28, you can fill a car with no more than 30 liters of AI-92, -95 and -100, and you also cannot buy fuel in an external container.

This news is intended to cool the rush at gas stations and balance the supply and demand of goods. But so far the effect seems to be the opposite: the cluster of such signals provokes buyers to stock up on fuel whenever possible in anticipation of a potentially even more full-scale shortage. All the more fresh in memory is perhaps the most spectacular attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in recent times - a massive strike on a large oil refinery in the Moscow district of Kapotnya.

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Undoubtedly. The discussion about this is being held in fire mode. On June 23, the Vedomosti newspaper told what plan the government was preparing to save the fuel market.

The first tool that can level out the deficit is the weakening of the requirements for the quality of fuel produced by Russian refineries. The newspaper Kommersant (Kommersant) reported on June 15 that the authorities allowed enterprises to supply the domestic market with gasoline and diesel (DT) with Euro-3 class indicators, and not Euro-5, as required by the technical regulations of the EAEU. More precisely, they allowed this back in the fall of 2025, when the Ukrainian Armed Forces also intensively attacked Russian refineries, and now they have extended the mechanism.

In essence, this means that gasoline is allowed to have a sulfur content of up to 150 milligrams per kilogram, and not up to the “regulatory” 10. In addition, Euro-3 fuel contains various additives, ethanol and hydrocarbons that pollute the car engine. When such gasoline is burned, the engine, exhaust system and catalysts of the car will wear out faster, experts interviewed by Kommersant warned. Nevertheless, the authorities expect that this measure will increase the volume of fuel production. True, it is unlikely to cover all the processing lost due to the Ukrainian attacks.

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Eat. The second mechanism that the government wants to apply is a temporary reduction in the standard for the sale of gasoline on the stock exchange.

They want to reduce the figure for refineries from 15 to 10% of their production volume. They plan to use the released fuel to save agricultural producers (we will talk about their prospects due to the crisis below) and other socially significant categories of consumers.

At the same time, of course, this measure also has a noticeable disadvantage: a reduction in supply on the stock exchange can increase the shortage of gasoline and diesel fuel at gas stations of independent chains, which are already losing competition to large federal players against the backdrop of the developing crisis.

Yes. They plan to fill the domestic market through imports. Moreover, the authorities seem to be ready to subsidize it: as one of Vedomosti’s sources formulated, for this purpose the damper mechanism will be changed - “so that the government will be able to make payments on it when importing petroleum products.”

Let us quote Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, one of the leading oil and gas experts: through this mechanism, “gasoline is sold to the public at a price 20–30 rubles below its real market price, which further stimulates consumption.”

But the subsidy is only for fuel sold by Russian companies, which limits imports:

For example, if Russian companies send oil through tolling schemes for processing in Belarus and then receive fuel from the Mozyr or Novopolotsk refineries, such supplies are subject to the damper. But there is practically no fuel on the Russian market sold directly by Belneftekhim, the owner of these plants, because it does not receive any damper payments from the Russian authorities.

Now, apparently, the authorities are ready to extend the mechanism to foreign importers.

This will clearly cost billions of rubles from the budget. At the same time, the damper already costs 200 billion a month, which did not allow the authorities to fully feel the effect of high world oil prices during the great war in the Middle East. And one can only guess whether the treasury, already suffering from a high deficit, will withstand additional expenses.

According to Sergei Vakulenko, “stimulating demand by keeping prices below equilibrium during a period of shortage looks like madness.” And yet, the government is taking this step, giving priority to social stability rather than market logic.

There are proposals from their side as well. More precisely, from the most influential manager in the industry - the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin. This is what he advises the authorities to do in his letter to Vladimir Putin:

• suspend the rule according to which exchange sales standards of 15 and 16%, respectively, apply to producers of Euro-5 gasoline and diesel fuel;
• oblige Euro-3 fuel producers to sell the entire volume of their products on the stock exchange;
• oblige all oil companies to supply at least 30% of produced raw materials for processing within the country;
• change the procedure for calculating exchange sales for vertically integrated oil companies - taking into account the needs of their gas station networks, as well as supplies under government orders and for life support enterprises;
• provide priority access to the exchange for end buyers of gasoline and diesel fuel, and not for resellers who “maximize their income.”

The last point could just help independent gas station chains. True, on the stock exchange they often act through intermediaries, so how the authorities will determine the status of the “final buyer” has yet to be decided.

Not just a good, but an ideal option is to stop the wave of attacks on Russian refineries. Of course, such a scenario is possible both when new effective mechanisms for deterring strikes appear in the Russian Armed Forces, and when the arsenals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are depleted.

But both of these options do not look reliable at the moment: the attack on the Kapotnya refinery showed that the Russian air defense system is vulnerable even in its most protected area; and it is simply very difficult to believe that Ukraine and its Western allies, having discovered a weak point in the Kremlin’s strategy, will refuse to continue an effective long-range campaign.

This actualizes the conversation about the possibility of at least a temporary freezing of the conflict. Vladimir Putin has already softened the hawkish rhetoric that he recently broadcast at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum and said that Russia is ready for negotiations. True, it is still only subject to the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region, which is unacceptable for official Kyiv. Otherwise, Putin is still threatening to take over the region militarily.

The disappointing answer is everyone. But if you can still adapt to short-term interruptions in the supply of gasoline, especially in the summer season, then much more serious problems loom ahead. For example, a food crisis due to a sharp rise in diesel prices. Since the end of April, the cost of diesel fuel on the stock exchange has risen by more than 40%.

Meanwhile, the harvesting campaign begins in Russia. “We see both an increase in wholesale costs and shortages. If the dynamics do not change, of course, farmers will not be able to provide themselves with fuel for a full-fledged harvesting campaign,” an employee of one of the Russian agricultural holdings stated in a commentary to Forbes on condition of anonymity.

First of all, probably by expanding the ban on fuel supplies abroad, which is already in force for non-producers. Sergei Kaufman, an analyst at the Finam financial group, told Forbes that Russia “in a normal situation exports about 40% of the diesel it produces, that is, the safety margin is large and has not yet been exhausted.” And the authorities do not hide the fact that they are discussing this measure.

True, many experts do not agree with the opinion that a ban on exports alone will solve the problems of agricultural producers: they propose supplementing this measure with others - for example, increasing the quota for mandatory sales on the stock exchange, priority deliveries to agricultural regions, control of small wholesale and special shipment schedules for harvesting work.

Who else is suffering a lot?

For example, airlines. The Azimuth carrier warned the government about the critical situation in the aviation fuel market.

The company said that in early June, the main supplier of kerosene notified it of the need to reduce consumption by about a third of the declared volumes from the second ten days of the month - due to “force majeure” at Russian refineries. At the same time, alternative suppliers do not have the necessary resources.

At the same time, fuel prices have also increased sharply, the airline emphasized: the average increase in prices at Russian airports since the beginning of June has exceeded 17%. Although the price of kerosene on the world market has been declining for the third month in a row.

In such conditions, the implementation of the planned flight program “loses all economic meaning” not only on international routes, but also on domestic routes, Azimuth stated.

General advice that's easy to give and certainly hard to follow is don't panic. Acute phases of crises provoke raids by buyers on points of sale of a scarce product, but do not necessarily mean that the crisis itself is as deep as it seems from its media manifestations. At the same time, we do not know the true scale of the current problems in the fuel market and cannot be confident in the ability of the authorities and oil workers to quickly bring the country out of the gasoline peak.

A more practical option is to install gas cylinder equipment (LPG) on your car. As experts and market participants told Kommersant FM, more and more drivers are coming to this decision - and this allows them to reduce fuel costs by almost half. True, you will have to spend from 45 thousand rubles to install HBO. In addition, the process requires changes to the design of the car and is generally not suitable for all models. And finally, rush demand cannot but affect the cost of gas. Over the past week, exchange prices for propane-butane have increased by 30% - to the maximum since the fall of 2024.

"Jellyfish"