The second front

In the event of a major conflict in the Middle East, the supply of Russian oil to the United States can become a powerful weapon of Washington. It remains to find means of delivery of this weapon

One of the main topics of the American-Russian summit, which will begin in a week, how to turn Russia into the main supplier of oil to the world market. It seems that the complete and unconditional support of US actions after September 11 will finally begin to bring Russia practical benefits. Russian claims to a special role in the world energy market are very favorably perceived in the West. In early May, a meeting of the Energy Energy Ministers of Energy countries took place in Detroit, where Russian minister Igor Yusufov set out several of ideas at once, the implementation of which could actively turn Russia into an alternative to the countries of the Persian Gulf for industrialized countries. In addition to working with colleagues, Yusufov had a meeting with the US Vice President Diko Cheney, the author of the United States Energy Strategy of the largest consumer of energy resources in the world. As a result, the whole world bypassed high -profile statements that Russia to supply oil in the United States, which, for their part, consider the possibility of purchasing Russian raw materials for the state reserve.

The political moment for the implementation of Moscow plans is very favorable. The creation of the “necessary” mood was facilitated by a recent visit to the United States Ariel Sharon. The Israeli Prime Minister brought a vast dossion collected by the national special services, designed to convince the Americans that Israel cannot conduct peace negotiations with the Arafat, as he personally provides support to terrorists. Among other things, the dossier argued that Saudi Arabia provides “direct and system” financial assistance to the families of Palestinian terrorists. However, without this, before Sye, the Americans, after the events of September, are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with their ally in the Persian Gulf and the main supplier of oil. For example, in an article published at Wall Street Jornal at the beginning of this year, you can read that Saudi Arabia “claims that she is our best friend, although she supported our enemies all this time. But we can live without their oil. ” According to the newspaper, it is deliveries from Russia that can reduce the dependence of the United States on Arabic oil.

At first glance, it is difficult to dream of a larger Russia. According to the American Oil Institute, the average daily oil consumption in the United States is about 15 million barrels (1 barrel - 0.136 g). Of these, about two -thirds are imported. State reserves of raw oil in the United States are supported at the level of 300 million barrels. About the same amount of gasoline, diesel fuel and Ma Zut is in total in total. And these reserves are constantly replenished. The elbow is close, although Russia is ready to sell more oil, neither the United States nor Europe will be able to completely abandon supplies from the Middle East. The fact is that almost two -thirds of world explored reserves (63%) are located in the Gulf Persian zone.

To date, out of about 10 million barrels per day (MB), which are imported in the USA, 1.7 m. It comes from Saudi Arabia. Moreover, if these oil supplies were regulated exclusively by market laws, they would be half as much. According to the influential American magazine Forin Affers, the state company Saudi Aramco from every barrel that is delivered to the United States, receives less for the dollar than during deliveries to Europe. That is, American consumers save about $ 620 million per year in Saudi oil. Er-Riyad pays such a price not only for his share in the American market. The authors of the article in Forin Affers believe that “in the US exchange, they contain a powerful military group in the Persian Gulf zone, which not only protects the territorial integrity and deposits of Saudi Arabia and other allies in the region, but also helps to resist the power of the Saudis dynasty.” The new US energy strategy, which has emerged from the pen of Cheney, provides for steps to reduce the dependence of American energy on Arabic oil, in particular due to procurement in countries that are not part of OPEC.

According to the results of last year, Russia reached the volume of oil production in the first place in the world, bypassing this indicator Saudi Arabia. However, mining about 7.5 mb, Erriyad has frozen capacities that will allow him, if necessary, in a short time to increase the production by 3 a.D. Forin Affers compares these capacities with the power of nuclear weapons. Moreover, Saudi Arabia from time to time lets his weapon. In the last

This was the time in the second half of the 90s, when Venezuela began to pursue an ambitious policy aimed at a triple increase in oil production. In the winter of 1996/1997, Karakas, having a quota in the framework of OPEC in the amount of 2.3 mb, really mined about 3 million. For some time, Venezuela even supplanted Saudi Arabia from the first place in the export of oil in the United States. When diplomatic exhortations were unsuccessful, Riyadh increased production by MB, which was one of the reasons for the collapse of oil prices in 1998. Of course, Saudi Arabia missed profit, but these actions helped her not only strengthen her leadership in OPEC, regain the status of the main supplier of oil in the United States, but also to incline to cooperation with the cartel of independent exporters - Mexico and Norway.

Despite the willingness to squeeze the Saudi Arabia in the American market, Russia is still afraid of the price war with OPEC. At the end of last year, in response to the requirements of OPEC, Mikhail Kasyanov reduced the prey to himself rather sharp statements that no one had the right to dictate to our country, how much oil to produce and how to sell. However, as soon as the threat of a trade war arose, Moscow quickly agreed to a “voluntary” reduction in exports to the required 150 thousand barrels per day. These restrictions were extended to the second quarter even though the accumulated excess oil led to a very tangible drop in prices in the domestic market. The mechanism of export restrictions became pipelines through which the bulk of Russian oil goes west. Pipelines belong to the state, and he has no other opportunity to regulate the supply of private oil companies. Russian companies are trying to compensate for losses, increasing the export of oil products (gasoline and fuel oil), but the capabilities here directly depend on transport, and the throughput of our railways is small. Considering that Russian oil industry workers do not intend to abandon plans to increase oil production, and the domestic market in Russia is already saturated, we can safely predict that by the end of the year restrictions on export of Russian oil will not survive.

If Russian oil really begins to supplant Saudi from the American market, this can lead to response from Er-Riyad. And it is still unknown who will be the winner from this confrontation. On the one hand, the advantage of Russia is that the oil industry is privatized and open to foreign investments. Moreover, companies such as BP, Exxon Mobil, Total Fina Elf, Shell are already actively working in Russia: they not only participate in products dividing, but also acquire large stakes in Russian oil companies. In particular, during the May summit, Vladimir Putin and George Bush will discuss the opportunity to activate American investments in Russian energy. The more they come to the Russian energy sector, the easier it will be Russian oil to break through the road to the markets of developed countries. Why BP or Shell buy oil in the Middle East for your oil refineries, if you can use the one that is produced by them in Russia? In addition to Western investments in Russia, Russian oil companies are actively in the opposite process began to buy up oil refineries and chains of benzos in the West. Over time, this will be another advantage in the struggle for markets.

In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, oil production and export are still under the jurisdiction of the State Monopolist Saudi Aramco. Despite the fact that the Minister of Oil Industry of the country Ali Al-Nami announced plans to privatize a number of company divisions, speech, according to analysts, is most likely about auxiliary industries and non-core assets. At least that foreign companies will be allowed to produce oil in Saudi Arabia, there is no speech yet. In all grave plans to sell Russian oil in the United States are still economically substantiated. The problem is that the lower border of profitability takes place at 25 dollars per barrel - transport costs are too great. Therefore, numerous statements by Russian officials of different levels, including the prime minister, about the “fair” price of $ 18-22 per barrel, which would have arranged both manufacturers and oil importers, are poorly consistent with the same to win the American market. To slightly increase the profitability of supplies, the use of super-tankers with a capacity of 350-400 thousand tons could. But, firstly, Russian companies simply do not have such a fleet, and secondly, even if it has it, Russia may have difficulty delivery. Türkiye has already repeatedly tried to impose a limitation on the passage of tankers through the Bosphorus and Dardanella, stating that such transportation was sprouted with environmental danger. In addition, according to the President of Sibneft, Evgeny Shvidler, export from Russia is very much fence with the capacity of ports and pipelines.

In fact, the supply of oil from the Sakhalin deposit in the United States, which are developed with the participation of Shell and Exxon Mobil, look the most real. The companies are ready to invest in a total of about 24 billion dollars, however, even when the Sakhalin wells reach the design capacity (according to the plan, this should occur in 2003-2004.), This will increase Russian oil exports only by 0.2 mb.D. And in this case, it is still early to talk about successful competition with Saudi Arabia.

Nevertheless, the trade war between Russia and OPEC is quite likely. Only it will be led for the European and Asian markets. Over the past two years, production in Russia grew a record pace. As a result, by the beginning of 2002, in the country, in the country was issued to the mountain for 1 m. More than at the end of 1999. At the same time, OPEC to maintain prices reduced production by 3.5 m. At the beginning of this year, these trends found a continuation - OPEC cut its quotas by another 1.5 mb, and in Russia the production is still growing (restrictions only relate to export). And this has already led to a serious crisis of overproduction, since there is no necessary facilities for oil storage.

The chairman of the board of the company Yukos Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who has long advocated for refusing to cooperate with OPEC, believes that the price war is inevitable. In his opinion, “over the past two years, the share of OPEC in Europe has decreased by 3%. How much she will endure the reduction of her market, I do not know for sure. But at the moment when they say “enough”, and this can happen at the end of this or at the beginning of next year, the price will collapse. ”

With this development of events, Arab countries will have a serious transformation to Russia - their oil is much easier and cheaper to produce their oil. In Saudi Arabia and the UAE, for measures, the cost of a barrel of oil is not exceeding two dollars, while in Russia it makes more than seven dollars. If you take into account the costs of investments necessary for the output of the boot of new wells in return for the exhaustive, the gap will increase even more.

However, it is difficult to predict the outcome of the trade war, since it will break out. If Russia is afraid of the collapse of prices, then the Western countries are frightened by the threat of their sharp growth in the event of a military operating system in Iraq. In order to avoid sharp fluctuations in the raw materials, Russian Minister of Energy Igor Yusufov invited colleagues from the Eight countries as opposed to the OPEC to create a certain “committee of four”, which could include large oil producing countries - the USA, Canada, England and Russia. In addition, in order to reduce price risks in the oil market, it is possible to create state samps like American, in other countries of the Eight. This idea was reflected in the final document adopted at the meeting of ministers in Detroit. If it is implemented, then Russian oil industry workers will have the opportunity to supply raw materials not only to the European market, but also to work on long -term state contracts.

Understanding that in the near future it is hardly possible to sharply increase the supply of Russian oil to the United States, the Russian side of the anticipation of extinguishes to place part of the oil strategic reserves of Europe and the USA in our territory. At the same time, Moscow emphasizes that in order to reelie these plans, it is necessary to increase Western investments in Russian energy.

Projects discussed in Detroit do not mean that Russia is ready to declare OPEK war. In parallel with the Western countries, Russia is negotiating and with a cartel - shortly before flying to a meeting in Detroit Yusufov, he met in Moscow with the Secretary General of the organization Ali Rodry Ges. Russia is actively working in Iraq. At the height of negotiations in Detroit, The Middle East Eaconomic Survey reported that a deal worth about $ 40 billion was concluded between Iraq and Russia to implement 67 projects. Thus, Russia is still able to work “on two fronts”. However, the time when you have to finally decide on the friends of Mi can come very soon.