That the Russian is good ...

On New Year's Eve, the world market made Russia a generous gift. The price of individual oil varieties exceeded thirty dollars

The rapid growth of quotations in December and January is explained not only and not so much with the tightening of the American and British troops in the Zone of the Persian Gulf. Preparations for the war have long been “laid down” in prices (exchange speculators in every possible way heated fears associated with the expectation of oil supply interruptions from Iraq), and the approach of the start of the operation could clearly not affect the market standing. The fact is that the unusually cold winter in the USA and Europe increased the demand for energy resources. At the same time, at the beginning of December, a general strike began in Venezuela, paralyzing the country's economy, the 70% budget of which is formed due to oil export. So this winter, developed countries have encountered fuel deficiency.

The leadership of the state oil and gas monopoly Petroleos Venezuela (PDVSA) intends to resign the President of the country of the Hugo of weight. On the other hand, it is known that Chavez has long been trying to completely subjugate the corporation for himself. Some analysts believe that the conflict is caused by Chavez’s attempts to fight the large -scale export of capital and in the elaboration that flourished in PDVSA. Others tend to see the causes of Cree Zis in the president’s leftist inclinations, about and without a reason, scouring the loud about his friendship with Fidel Castro. They assure that the desire to realize the “revolutionary” ideas put the country on the line of economic collapse. The requirements of the Venezuelan oligarchs have found wide support among the local middle class and wealthy citizens. On the side of the opposition, many prominent politicians, the improper press performed. In turn, Chavez, who relies on the poor, supported the army. Protest shares grew into armed clashes between opponents and supporters of the president.

Venezuela occupies an extremely important place in the global energy resources market. Until recently, the country ranked fifth in the world in oil export. But the crisis in the republic has been going on for a month and a half, and it came to the point that the authorities were forced to import fuel from Brazil. With the beginning of the strike, American strategic reserves began to sharply decrease. The United States, the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil, covered about 12-13% of its needs from this country. In total, due to the Venezuelan crisis, the losses of the world market amounted to more than 60 million barrels.

At any other time, the Americans would support the opposition. Despite close cooperation, relations between the two countries are not in the best way. The Americans are annoyed not only by Chavez’s statements in support of Iraq, Cuba and North Korea, but also by the active role that Venezuela plays in OPEC. This explains the haste with which Washington recognized the legitimate power of the putschists who committed a military coup in Venezuela in April last year. (The coup, however, was suppressed, and two days later, Chavez returned to his presidential palace.) Now it’s a completely different matter. Preparations for the operation in the Persian Gulf entered the final stage. With the outbreak of war, the world will also lose Iraqi oil, and it is not known when supplies will be possible to resume in the previous volumes. So the crisis in Venezuela for the United States is completely inappropriate.

Of course, there will be no global oil deficiency. Measures are already taken. In particular, on January 12, a meeting of OPEC members took place in Vienna, where it was decided to increase production quotas by 1.5 million barrels per day. In addition, members of the cartel turned to other oil -producing countries. A one and a half years ago, OPEC called on independent exporters (Russia, Norway and Mexico) to reduce production in order to prevent oil prices, threatening to unleash the price war in case of refusal. But now they have presented the oil cartel to increase production in order to prevent a deficit. OPEC does not suit too high prices, since they can stimulate the development of new deposits in other countries, the development of which was previously unprofitable. And this is fraught with increased competition, loss of share in the market. In addition, the more expensive the fuel costs, the more actively in developed countries, resource -saving technologies are being introduced, which can cause a decrease in demand.

However, the impression that the suppliers who have fallen from the market always have anyone noticed is not entirely true. The problem is that neither independent exporters nor most members of the cartel, due to the specifics of their deposits, can in a short time increase or reduce prey. The exception is only Saudi Arabia, which for two weeks is able to increase the daily norm by 3 million barrels. But even this colossal figure does not cover the losses of Venezuela, which, before the crisis, extracted 3.2 million barrels per day from the bowels. If the global market loses and Iraq with its 2 million barrels, then the deficiency will be difficult to cover. What is aking for economically developed countries, whose economy “eats” mainly purchased oil, all this is fraught with a sharp slowdown in growth rate. European countries and Japan will feel especially uncomfortable, where, unlike the United States, there are no significant oil reserves. That is why Europe is more and more skeptical about the military plans of the Americans. German analysts predict that in the event that the planned operation begins in February and until the end of the year, delivery from Iraq will not resume in full, GDP of Germany, instead of expected growth, will decrease by more than a percentage. In Russia, whose well -being is based on the sale of oil, on the contrary, the dependence between the prices of raw materials and the growth of the economy is the greater than the price, the greater the growth. The conjuncture for oil companies is more favorable than ever. An increase in the share in the market itself floats in the hands. But a year and a half ago, when the cartel sought export reduction from Russia, the head of the Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was going to fight OPEC in order to expand his presence in the oil market. The only thing that somewhat spoils the picture is the limited possibilities of oil delivery to the consumer. It was the problems with transportation by Russian Minister of Energy Igor Yusufov last week that exports even if it increases, it was not earlier than the second quarter of this year. However, today Europe can feel more or less calmly almost all large Russian oil pipelines, through which the main export of oil goes, pumps fuel there.

Last year, the Americans also expressed interest in the procurement of Russian oil. Several tankers were even sent to the United States. However, these supplies were more likely to be advertising: in order to carry oil through the ocean it became profitable, it is necessary to use large -capacity tankers, which Türkiye does not pass through the straits. And the Novorossiysk Port, which is mainly used by oil workers, is not intended for such ships. It is difficult to say how much our oil really needs in the United States and whether this initiative was the desire to “sweeten the pill” in the American plans of the post -war Iraqi device for Russian companies has not yet been found. But domestic oil magnates seriously took up the solution to the problem of transportation.

In November, four companies - Lukoil, Yukos, Sibneft and TNK - agreed to build an oil -terrible terminal in Murmansk, capable of serving large tankers, as well as the pipeline, according to which oil will be delivered there from Wesano -Siberian deposits. The project cost was estimated at 3.5-4.5 billion dollars. Unfortunately, the oil workers will most likely have to forget about these plans. Having withstand a two -month pause, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said in early January that private trunk

There will be no pipelines in Russia. The maximum that the oil workers can get by building a pipeline for their money, a preferential pumping tariff. On such conditions, naturally, no one will want to invest. This does not mean that Russian oil will not reach the United States. Only this will be oil only with. Sakhalin deposits, which significantly limits the export capabilities and the number of Russian companies that will gain access to the American market.

It is difficult to say that Kasyanov was so categorical to reject the idea of ​​private pipelines. Perhaps the government simply does not want to release such a convenient tool as an oil pipe, especially when export duties are the main source of budget revenues. True, in such a servant it is not entirely clear why it was necessary to wait for so long, and not to express your position immediately after the formation of the consortium. Oil jackets would not waste time on empty spotlights. On the other hand, Kasyanov’s statement coincided with another event that has the most direct relationship to the Russian oil industry. In the first half of January, Russia was visited by the Japanese Prime Minister Dzyuniitiro Koizumi, who, by the uniforms of the Kuril Islands, said that trade cooperation between our countries did not correspond to their potential and that Japan is ready to buy a million barrels of Russian oil per day. He even proposed to participate in the construction of the oil pipeline from Eastern Siberia in a find worth $ 5 billion. Russia is proposed to pay for oil supplies.

Although this initiative is not related to the Murmansk project, the connection between the visit of the Japanese prime minister and Kasyanov’s statement can be traced. The fact is that not only the Americans with the Japanese, but also the Chinese want to buy oil in our country. The Nakhodkinsky project directly competes with the idea of ​​laying a pipe from Angarsk to Chinese Datsin. Negotiations on this construction have been conducting Yukos and the Chinese National Oil Company (CNPC) for four years. At the same time, the Russian side requires almost three times smaller investments than if you pull the branch to the find, $ 1.7 billion. Yukos is going to invest money, so Khodorkovsky’s company claims to be 51% of the shares of the oil pipeline. After the announcement of Kasyanov, this plan will probably also be buried (unless China offers the Russian government something more interesting).

In a word, a queue is built on Russian oil. It would seem that we can only be happy with the high world prices for energy exports is growing, the country receives the coveted currency, the jet bon - income, teachers salary, pension pension. You look, they will also add any closer to the elections. All this is so, although there is another side of the coin.

An excess of petrodollars is destructive for that part of the Russian economy that does not belong to the raw material sector. First of all, the ceiling, that with current prices in terms of profitability, the "oil" has no competitors. Is it worth it after that to be surprised that the lion's share of investment is going on there now can be safely predicted that having discovered when summing up the economic results of 2002 Savoreva re -Cos, ”which will cause the strong anxiety of Mikhail Kasyanov, this year will continue to aggravate. In addition, the policy of living a nominal ruble of the ruble relative to the dollar has been inherited by the Central Bank since Viktor Gerashchenko, in the conditions of the Russian inflation, it leads to an increase in the real course. In other words, the dollar prices at RII are continuously rising, and production costs are rising, tannies crossed at the nominal rate. This trend does not stimulate in the lead in import -substituting industries. More and more goods are more profitable to buy abroad than to produce on the spot. Fortunately, there are big ones in the country. Last year, when imports grew up ahead of the pace, it is very distinctly Godless, of course, we can say and let it grow. In the end, it is also an international division of labor, in order to be able to be able to each with their competitive advantages (someone has a lot of oil, someone has brains and pre -technology) the problem is that oil prices can fall out of the moment when everyone in Russia is fully inhabited from a crockie's generic source. In the end, the war in Iraq is needed by American tsam not at all in order to punish Saddam Hussein, who supposedly grows up to establish the production of mass defeat and threaten Elim Yu for all the progressive humanity. Otherwise, they would have tightened the warriy not into the Persian Gulf, but to the shores of North Korea, whose leader insists on his right to produce nuclear weapons. But with Kim Jong Ir, it is not interesting to fight for nothing. And in Iraq it will be possible to get everything over time so that no OPEC no longer depends. And if the epistle is diving, in Russia, and look, you will have to do the next restructuring for.