Occupation and protectorate

What kind of future are the US and China preparing for North Korea?

and Protectorate Occupation

Vasily GOLOVNIN head of ITAR-TASS bureau specially for Novaya

A strange story happened on September 23 in the skies off the eastern coast of the DPRK, to which American B-1 supersonic strategic bombers, accompanied by F-15 fighters, approached the closest in this century. The planes deliberately flew within the range of the tracking radars that the DPRK received from the USSR in the 80s, and were at the same time beyond the kill zone of the Korean SA-5 anti-aircraft missiles, developed by the Soviet Union in the 60s. But the campaign of intimidation, to the amazement of the Pentagon, seems to have failed - the North Korean side did not react. Its radars did not detect enemy planes, and Kim Jong-un’s “falcons” did not soar into the sky to intercept. And the Americans came to the conclusion that for some reason Pyongyang simply did not notice their provocation. Experts are now speculating about serious gaps in North Korea's air defense system. The Americans had to specially disseminate a message about the flight of their bombers, indicating their route - and Pyongyang finally got through. A threatening noise arose in the North Korean press; a video was released in which anti-aircraft gunners famously shoot down American combat aircraft of the latest models, and at the same time sink the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson with one blow from a submarine. South Korean intelligence, in turn, recorded the hasty transfer of combat aircraft and additional air defense systems to the eastern coast of the DPRK.

The extremely dangerous escalation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula has been continuing since mid-summer: in July, the DPRK, not without flaws, but quite successfully, twice tested a prototype of an intercontinental ballistic missile. At the end of August and September, Pyongyang launched medium-range missiles through Japanese territory - according to their indicators, they could potentially strike the American island of Guam in the Pacific Ocean, where, in particular, the US Air Force base with those same B-1 bombers is located.

Finally, on September 3, North Korea conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test of a hydrogen ballistic missile warhead. Following this, the head of the North Korean Foreign Ministry publicly suggested that in the near future the country's leader Kim Jong-un may give the order to explode a hydrogen charge over the Pacific Ocean. He did not give details, but we are probably talking about a thermonuclear test in the atmosphere with all the terrifying consequences. The Americans have already stated that they will regard such a step as an act of war. In September, at a session of the UN General Assembly, the head of the DPRK Foreign Ministry openly threatened the Americans with a missile strike on their territory. “This is becoming more and more inevitable,” Lee Young Ho warned. The head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford, paradoxically agrees with his opinion. North Korea, he believes, will very soon have an intercontinental missile with a nuclear warhead and the ability to strike the United States. “It’s only a matter of time,” the general admitted when speaking to senators on September 26.

Meanwhile, one of the leaders of the ruling party in South Korea said on September 27 that things are heading towards war - the United States will not calmly wait until Pyongyang creates the potential to strike its territory. According to the politician, his country is on the verge of a bloody conflict fraught with millions of human losses.

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China feels very uncomfortable in this situation - the threat of an uncontrollable large-scale clash is growing right at its borders. The Trump administration is putting powerful pressure on China - it is confident that Beijing can rein in Pyongyang, being its main economic partner and only military ally. But the problem is that North Korea has stopped listening to its Chinese comrades - Kim Jong-un mercilessly burned out the pro-Chinese lobby in the country. The Pyongyang press openly condemns the PRC for indulging Washington and for joining sanctions against North Korea. The measures of the UN Security Council are really harsh: any supplies of military technologies and weapons to Pyongyang, as well as their purchases from the DPRK, are prohibited. Starting this year, it is impossible to buy coal, iron, lead and their ores, seafood, and textiles from North Korea, which previously provided the country with up to 90 percent of its export earnings in foreign currency. After the sixth nuclear test, a ban was imposed on the supply of gas condensate to the country, and strict limits were set on the sale of oil and petroleum products to Pyongyang - in general, they were reduced by a third.

A few diplomats from Western countries and representatives of international organizations in Pyongyang are now being asked very carefully and, if possible, unnoticed by the North Korean intelligence services, about what is changing in the DPRK after the latest sanctions. So far, one thing is noticeable - the insane rise in gasoline prices at commercial gas stations. Compared to the beginning of the year, they have tripled, assures the South Korean Ministry of Unification, the main structure that collects and analyzes information from the North. As of the end of September, the price for a liter of gasoline in Pyongyang, in terms of American currency, is already more than $5. After the imposition of sanctions, the country's leadership sharply limited the supply of fuel to commercial structures and, due to this, replenishes strategic state reserves. So far, no other drastic changes have been noticed, but the sanctions are undoubtedly driving North Korea into a corner and dooming its economy to slow decline. This could push the country's leader Kim Jong-un to take sharp, unexpected steps to turn the situation around, scaring Washington, Seoul and Tokyo with the threat of a real war in the region. Pyongyang proceeds from the colossal difference in the price of human life in the DPRK and in industrialized democracies, which, in its opinion, may as a result falter and negotiate on terms favorable to the DPRK.

Joint control

China is taking this into account: there are signs that it is ready to at least talk with the United States and South Korea about overthrowing the current regime in Pyongyang as a result of a joint operation and about establishing a new system of power in the DPRK that suits all parties. According to the Japanese press, Washington and Seoul have repeatedly proposed holding such consultations, but Beijing considered this inappropriate. Now his position appears to have changed: Jia Qingguo, director of the Institute of International Relations at Peking University, published a lengthy article in English in September discussing establishing a joint protectorate over North Korea after the military removal of Kim Jong Un's administration. According to him, Beijing, Washington and Seoul need to agree on basic things: first of all, on the creation of a system for maintaining order on the territory of the DPRK by South Korean forces or an international contingent with a UN mandate. The introduction of American troops, the director argues, is unacceptable. But Beijing, it seems to him, may agree to the transfer of Pyongyang’s nuclear potential to US control. We are also talking about creating refugee camps on the Chinese-North Korean border, holding free elections in the DPRK under international control, etc. Apparently, this is not a personal opinion of an expert, but an option approved by the authorities, which Beijing is ready to discuss. Pyongyang is being made to understand that China is capable of taking part in an operation against the DPRK, or at least agreeing with it. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis announced in mid-September that he was negotiating with Seoul about returning American tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea, which were withdrawn in the 90s. Apparently, we are talking about cruise missiles and low-power aerial bombs, which can be used at any time for paralyzing targeted strikes on the DPRK. Mattis also said the United States is capable of neutralizing Pyongyang's most feared military weapon - thousands of artillery tubes and multiple launch rocket launchers concentrated in bunkers and caves within gunshot of Seoul. It is estimated that they can fire up to 300 thousand missiles and shells at the prosperous capital of South Korea with a population of 10 million in an hour. It is this factor that is said to have kept the United States from launching a preemptive strike on North Korea in the early 1990s when it had just begun its nuclear program. Tokyo

They are making it clear to Pyongyang: China is capable of taking part in an operation against the DPRK, or at least agreeing to it