Extra money will be divided

At the end of last year, in Iraq, the war smells in Venezuela with a revolution, and in Russia with money

An explosive situation, which has developed at once in two regions, providing a significant part of oil supplies to the world market, led not only to an increase in energy prices, but also to the exaggerated interest of developed countries to Russia. Last week, this interest finally received real embodiment-on Tuesday it was the volume of the Anglo-American company BP 50% of oil assets belonging to Alfa Groups and Access/Renova, concentrated in TNK International. The amount of the transaction is 6.85 billion dollars, of which Russian partners will immediately receive 3.25 billion with money, and the rest will be paid within three years by shares of BP. This is the largest direct foreign investment for the entire existence of the new Russia.

Arithmetic Western Energy Giant will work with Russian partners in a newly created holding on a parity for which the lion's share of Russian oil assets of BP should go: in particular, 33% of Rusia Petroleum shares and 25% Sidanko, large shares in Sakhalin-4 and Sakhalin-5 projects, which are located at the stage of the stage Geological exploration, a network of gas stations in Russia. Since the contribution of Russian companies is much more impressive (97% of TNC shares, 61% of “Onako”, 57% of Sidanko, 29% of Rusia Petroleum, 44% of the Independent Gas “Rospan”, shares in the Sakhalin-4 and Sakhalin-5 projects), BP, the missing (parity) pays off money and its shares.

It is planned to complete the transaction by July. If at the last moment there is no Forsmazhore and the new company begins to function, this can serve as an impetus for the next redistribution of oil assets in the Russian market. For example, half the Assets of Slavneft due to TNC, bought in December on a parity basis with Sibneft, will not yet be included in the new company. After the December auction, most experts were inclined to be sold to Roman Abramovich. However, now Mikhail Friedman (the head of the Alfa -Group) does not exclude the reverse situation - the redemption of Sibneft from its share and the company joining the new holding, the benefit of the presence of a solid Western partner with a capitalization exceeding $ 100 billion, opens up practically unlimited access to cheap money in international financial markets. In any case, there is something to bargain with Sibneft.

To begin with a new company, one could deal with Orenburgneft, in which Abramovich has 42% of the shares, and the future holding through “Onaco” is 56%. Representatives of Sibneft confirm that they are negotiating with TNCs on a number of issues, but before their completion they refuse to give any information. Most likely, the new company will want to fully control those enterprises where, as a result of the merger, it will have a control or close to the control package and where other Russian companies have minority shares. In the future, you can also expect trade with the Intersos for its package

Rusia Petroleum, and with Lukoil, which owns 56% of Rospan shares. In the meantime, if you leave the story with Slavneft, we are talking about the formation of the third in terms of production of the Russian oil company (after Lukoil and Yukos), which can extract 1.2 million barrels of the day and almost as much daily at the five plants available. Under the control of the new holding, there will be an extensive network of gas stations in Russia and Ukraine. Partners estimate the cost of the holding of more than 18 billion dollars.

Breakthrough the news about the breakthrough of BP into the Russian market was met by most Russian and Western analysts with enthusiasm. The multi-billion dollar investment was perceived as evidence of a high rating of investment and business climate in the country. The shares of BP were growing, and the shares of Russian companies increased even more significantly. There was talk about a probable increase in the sovereign rating of Russia soon, which will allow you to borrow money in international markets at lower interest. The “Degtya spoon” was only the news that after the announcement of the details of the transaction, the Standard & Poor's (S&P) rating agency included BP in the CreditWatch list, which could lead to a decrease in the company's credit rating. This is explained by the fact that after paying Russian partners, the debts of the concern can significantly increase. The analyst S&P Emmanuel Dubois-Peleren believes that this measure is temporary: "We will try to withdraw BP from the list by mid-March."

In addition, most commentators evaluate the deal more than positive. The psychological moment is especially important: BP succeeded that almost none of the foreigners managed to become one of the major players in the Russian oil market. There are many examples of how much this sector is closed for “strangers”. Take at least a 75 percent state package of shares of Slavneft held at the end of last year. The Chinese national oil company, which showed a desire to participate in the auction, met such a tough rebuff that she was forced to abandon her plans a few days before trading.

Most recently, a wide campaign was held against the use of products on the division of products (SRP) in the development of Russian subsoil. The rhetoric of opponents of the SCP was that this regime is good for underdeveloped countries that do not have their own investment and personnel resources for field development. Say, in 1994, when Russian oil industry workers had almost no “subcutaneous fat” to start work “in a clean field”, the SRP was relevant, and now their money is enough. Against this background, the agreement with the owners of TNCs looks like a serious breakthrough.

The secret of success of the success of success is simply explained: VP will not receive complete control over the new company, so it will be forced to act with an eye on the interests of Russian partners and in accordance with those rules of the game that have developed in the domestic oil sector. It arranges such a state of things and its “oligarchs” are understandable and predictable. Dialogue has been established with them, if necessary, they can be controlled, which is especially valuable in anticipation of the elections. Management in the new company will be mixed. The Board will be headed by a representative of the BP, and the Vitel of the Russian Party will be engaged in strategic planning in the rank of chairman of the board of directors. According to Mikhail Friedman, middle managers will move from TNC and Sidanko. The most interesting thing is that BP will not be able to do anything in Russia bypassing the new company this condition of the contract. Therefore, all the conversations that the domestic oil market with the advent of BP will become much more open and transparent, are at least premature. In fact, the Anglo-American energy giant, who has long been trying to work in Russia, tired of constant losses associated with the weak knowledge of local realities, finally agreed to play according to the rules that were accepted here. Robert Dudley, an executive vice-president of the BP in Russia, the Caspian and Africa, said that his company is extremely important to have a Russian partner of RA and that parity relations will remain in the new holding for at least four years.

If the scheme that is tested by BP will justify expectations, it is very likely that in the foreseeable future the country will witness several more mergers. In particular, it is no secret to anyone that the head of Yukos Mikhail Khodorkovsky is open to such proposals. Experience can be used in other industries. According to Mark Garber Fleming Faming Faming Faming Faming Faming, "foreigners have now realized that a strong Russian partner is an important success factor."

Despite the abundance of life -affirming information, while domestic oil companies cannot fully use the favorable conjuncture in world markets. High prices stimulate production growth, however, it is not possible to remove oil outside the country, existing pipelines work at the limit of their bandwidth. There are also no capacities for creating reserves and long -term storage of raw materials in Russia. There is not enough oil in the world, Russia faces a crisis of overproduction. The domestic prices for raw oil fell to $ 5 per barrel.

It is unlikely that Russia is unlikely to be able to extract from its position in the foreseeable future. Almost all pipelines are extended to Europe, and potential buyers have already discovered both in the East and beyond the ocean. In recent years, the Chinese economy has been growing in recent years has been demanding more and more energy carriers. Naturally, their source could become rich in minerals and located in the neighborhood of Russia. Japan is also interested in the supply of Russian oil, which Japanese Prime Minister Dzyuniitiro Coizumi has recently stated during an official visit to Russia. In mid -January, the American ambassador Alexander Vershbow recalled that his country is waiting for tankers with our energy carriers. And everyone offers a lot of money. Japan and China for the construction of pipelines from Eastern Siberia to Datsin or to find. Americans for the development of Sakhalin deposits and the Arctic shelf.

Government officials, last year, complained about the lack of investors and discussed the dangers of investment hunger and, as a result of a sharp slowdown in economic growth, were somewhat stunned from abundance of people who wanted to invest in Russia. Unable to choose between Japan and China, the government turned out to be a donkey Buridanov and is ready to agree to the construction of both branches. The total capacity of the entire system is estimated at 80 million tons per year (30 million in China and 50 million in the find). Finally, the issue should be resolved at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers on March 13. It can still change, especially when you consider that East Siberian oil is not enough to simultaneously provide both directions. According to the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, by 2010, Russia will be able to export 30 million tons of oil per year from Eastern Siberia. Even twenty years later, by 2030, the export potential of the region will not exceed 50 million tons per year. Therefore, the expediency of this "construction of the century" causes more than reasonable doubts. Of course, it is tempting to take more money from everyone and at once, to place orders from Russian manufacturers of equipment, thus supporting domestic metallurgists and machine -builders. The only problem is that the money will have to be returned with oil, which physically will not be.

So to say that the government is in euphoria is wrong. Investors are still ready to invest exclusively in the extraction and transportation of raw materials, and this exacerbates the already huge structural skew of the Russian economy, enhances its dependence on the conjuncture of the world market. I really do not want to turn into a “raw material appendage” of developed countries or, even worse, China. For the office, Kasya Nova became finally obvious the fact that something needs to be done. The recipe is contained in a new medium -term program prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development. Among other things, the document refers to the need to improve the system of charging rental payments. Simply put, they will take more money from raw materials. The draft tax reform, which is currently being prepared in the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Finance, suggests that rent will increase by 15-20%. And this will reduce the effective rate of a single social tax, it will be possible to reduce VAT and income tax.

The decrease in tax burden on the economy as a whole due to an increase in rental payments looks a very logical step. After all, this should reduce the profitability of the raw material sector and increase it in other, mainly processing, industries. If the declared banking reform and the reform of the stock market are successful, the country will appear in the country for the intersectoral overcoming of capital. However, it is important at the same time that the government does not overdo it with the redistribution of overprovers from the sale of oil. Intelligence and development of new deposits require huge long -term investments. High prices in the world market are used by oil companies in order to accumulate funds for these expensive events. Having selected too much, the government risks slaughter the last chicken, still bearing gold eggs from time to time.