For the umpteenth time, the government is trying to establish a state monopoly on alcohol

The Russian vodka market is almost the largest in the world. According to the Ministry of Economy, Russia annually drinks approximately 240-250 million decalidrs of vodka. Moreover, these calculations proceed from the volumes that were produced by domestic enterprises in pre -perestroika times. If we take into account that then the inhabitants of Russia, especially small cities and villages, cooked moonshine in commodity quantities, we can assume that the level of consumption of this drink is much higher in our country. For example, the research company Business Analytica Europe Ltd. Assesses the current capacity of the strong alcohol market in our country about 400 million decalits, of which 99% falls on vodka.

However, with such high volumes of consumption, the share of vodka money in the budget is only 2-5% in recent years (for comparison: in Soviet times, vodka brought up to 30% of revenues to the state). The fact is that every year the proportion of illegal goods is growing in the country's vodka (unaccounted vodka produced by underground workshops or legal factories that reflect not the entire product made in their reporting).

According to the General Director of Rosalko JSC (it unites about 200 large Russian liquor plants) Valery Brener, this year less than 100 million decaliters of vodka will be produced in the country. That is, so much will be legally produced. The share of goods from far abroad is extremely insignificant, because if you import vodka by all the rules, it will be several times more expensive than the Russian. So, according to experts, if you compare these data with consumption, it turns out that the share of shadow products accounts for 60-70%.

Take your shoulder

Every post -perestroika government remembered vodka. State control over the production and sale of vodka was tried to carry out the team of Viktor Chernomyrdin, in which the law "On state regulation of the production and turnover of ethyl alcohol and alcohol products" was adopted. The premiership of Sergei Kiriyenko was marked by the presidential decree on the creation of the Federal State Unitary Enterprise “Rosspirtprom” with the entry of all liquor and alcohol plants into it. Then, already when I.O. Premiere Chernomyrdin proclaimed a monopoly on alcohol by one of the points of his program to get out of the crisis.

The new government, led by Evgeny Primakov, also announced the intention to introduce a monopoly on a strong (over 28 degrees) alcohol from October, emphasizing that first of all we are talking about a monopoly for the production and sale of food alcohol and the revolution of liquor products. The relevant resolution was discussed at a government meeting on September 29.

Officially, Evgeny Primakov said that there would be no nationalization. But, as a representative of one of the companies noted in an interview with the “results”, in the minds of members of the government “The idea of nationalization wanders”. Although the state does not have money for nationalization-because property must be redeemed from their current owners (the 17th year, when the enterprises were simply confiscated, we will not consider).

Among other proposals, according to a representative of one of the alcoholic companies, the creation of a centralized wholesale base, as well as a whole army of checking inspectors of up to 250 thousand people designed to control the production of alcohol alcohol. As the head of one of the vodka enterprises put it, “it seems that the government is preparing for war, offering to recruit tax inspectors who will have to control alcohol production and alcohol trade, and almost allow them to shoot at those who will not obey the law.” A deputy of the State Duma, a member of the Committee on Economic Policy, Vladimir Bayunov believes that the document prepared by the government is contrary to the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the Civil Code. “It is impossible to work as a decree proposed by the government,” he concluded, noting that it offers too many radical measures. According to him, the prime minister instructed the team of Deputy Prime Minister in agriculture Gennady Kulik to finalize the project. It will be refined in the Committee on Economic Policy of the State Duma.

“The government should understand that radical administrative measures have the opposite effect,” said Valery Brener, Director General of Rosalko. “For example, tax police and wholesale bases after a couple of months of their existence themselves“ legalize ”underground alcohol.” It is unlikely that the introduction of uniform prices for alcohol was already held in 1996, when minimum vodka prices were set to combat dumping. They calculated the cost of legal goods and decided that vodka should cost no less than 12.5 thousand (then) per bottle. Nothing happened.

Counter plan

Frightened by the clouds, the Rosalko JSC, the foreign trade JSC Soyuznotimport, the All -Russian Association of privatized and private enterprises, large wholesalers, and the leaders of the factories gathered in Moscow for the meetings in order to prepare and send their own proposals to the government.

All the assembled were unanimous in the fact that it was time to put things in order on the alcohol market, namely: to remove illegal products from the market, which interferes with the development of legal production and helps to reduce tax collection. However, the participants called on the government not to link the word “monopoly” with the concept of “property”, but only to consider the monopoly as a mechanism for regulating the market. “Everything should be private, but the state should control,” Arthur Perepelkin emphasized from the Russian trading company Alfa Spirits Group.

Importer firms emphasized that alcohol not produced in Russia must be given a special status. “Firms operating in the market of wines, cognacs, liqueurs, from the most law -abiding, said Sergey Avdeev from the Gallery of Vin. - Import not competitors are domestic, and you should not extend the state monopoly on imports. Today in Moscow you can buy the same thing that is sold in any European city. But the state still will not be able to engage in imported alcohol at a professional level, and the goods will simply disappear. ”

In general, the views of participants in the meeting on the fact that it can really normalize the work of the Russian alcohol market coincide. Most manufacturers believe that a monopoly is necessary only for all types of alcohol, including hydrolysis. At the same time, according to their conviction, about 10% of the collected excise tax should be given back to the alcohol factory for reconstruction

(Today, their equipment is behind world standards by 40-50 years).

“The state should strictly control how much alcohol is produced and how much is consumed. Then, - emphasize the general director of Soyuznotimport Alexei Oliznik and Rosalko Valery Brener, undergrounds will not be able to produce vodka. " According to their plan, you need to create a state organization that will buy alcohol from factories, and then sell it to manufacturers of drinks. In all countries, says Valery Brener, a special department under the Ministry of Finance is engaged in this. We can do this, say, Rosspirtprom. However, the formation of the State Federal Unitary Enterprise "Rosspirtprom" has not yet been completed.

It is possible that on the issue of centralized buying of alcohol the opinion of manufacturers coincides with the plans of the government. In any case, in a television interview, Sergei Glazyev, who is actively involved in the development of a government exiting of the crisis, noted that enterprises can be able to produce alcohol in private, but only the state will be able to sell it. True, the question arises where the state organization will find money for the purchase of alcohol and at what prices it will purchase it: at market or at the same arbitrarily set?

And yet. “To control alcohol plants so that they do not produce unaccounted alcohol, easily believes Alexei Oliznik. - There are only about 150 alcohol plants in the country ”(we note that about 2.5 thousand licenses licensed by alcohol manufacturers). Suppose. But then, as the President of the All -Russian Association of privatized and private enterprises Grigory Tomchin rightly noted, it is necessary to close the border with Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, from where cheap alcohol comes mainly.

According to the representatives of Rosalko and Soyuznotimport, another of the necessary measures is to simplify the tax collection scheme, namely: only alcohol (today the excise tax is taken both alcohol and finished products). In addition to simplifying the tax system, an argument in favor of the cancellation of excise taxes from vodka is also such a consideration. According to Valery Brener, 70% of the population are able to spend on a bottle of vodka from 0.5 to dollar. And if you do not saturate the market with cheap vodka, the people will still find her adequate replacement - moonshine, or all the same underground product, or, finally, a denaturate. The release of vodka from excise tax should contribute to the elimination of underground, the prices of which will become uncompetitive. “It is necessary to at least free one or two of the vodka brand from excise tax,” says the Brener.

Representatives of Alpha Spirits Group have their own view of the problem, offering the main excise tax to transfer not to alcohol from vodka, but to regional wholesale trade. Let the wholesale companies accredited in the regions, even private ones, are engaged in the spread of alcohol. Representatives of Alfa Spirits Group believe that the preservation of an alcohol excise tax will force underground manufacturers even more carefully to look for the sources of underground raw materials.

There is another argument in favor of introducing tax sales tax. Today in each region the owner of the vodka market is the governor. Since there is an excise tax on the production of vodka to the local budget, it is important for governors that their enterprises are as much as possible at their enterprises. Therefore, they are struggling not to miss vodka from other regions into their markets. One way or another, but the experience of collecting taxes from wholesale sales is already available in some regions (just these types of taxes are called differently). For example, in Moscow, a regional identification barcode brand has been introduced since this year (it costs the seller 30 kopecks apiece), designed to protect the consumer from false vodka. However, the Moscow market did not save. According to representatives of the plants, left -wing products today are easier to sell than legally produced.

For additional protection, manufacturers now offer to allow the sale of only those drinks on the bottles of which there is a special barcode. The barcode should be applied to the bottle in a factory way. Alcohol can be sold only in stores equipped with special devices for reading a barcode. Although, the manufacturers recognize, these measures are not cheap: a set of equipment for reading a barcode will cost $ 7-10 thousand.

Monopolis of a double fortress

So, the government continues to develop the mechanisms of the state monopoly for alcohol. However, the monopoly on the production and sale of alcohol and liquor production in our country actually already exists. In addition to the law “On state regulation ...”, over the past few years, about seventy decrees and resolutions of various kinds regulating the alcohol market have been adopted. Control packages of almost all large liquor and alcohol plants belong to the state. There is a system of licensing small liquor plants, licensing imports and sales, etc., and since the already adopted laws are not fulfilled and illegal vodka business is still flourishing, the question arises: who and how can force a new resolution? As a representative of one of the companies rightly put it, “even if the government brings all alcoholic business to its own hands, illegal alcohol will still remain, in extreme cases, people will cook moonshine, after all, foreigners do not take underground production, then eight out of twenty -four Russian tobacco factories belong to large Western companies. According to Business Analytica Europe LTD., 55% of tobacco products produced in the country are controlled by foreigners. Western corporations invested a lot of funds in the industry: they replaced dilapidated equipment in factories, improved the quality of local products, some created new brands, developed a distribution system.

Before the choice

While the government is developing the mechanisms of introducing a monopoly on strong alcohol, emphasizing that this is not about nationalization at all, the tobackers are in the ignorance of what will happen to them.

True, some time ago Anton Surikov, a press secretary of the First Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Maslyukov, gave clarifications to information agencies about the government plans for tobacco. According to him, the Government of the Russian Federation is not going to confiscate the property of manufacturers of tobacco products, including foreign ones. Most likely, the matter does not really reach such a radical measure. This would mean not only the loss of potency

on -ore investors, but also a change in the course, and the government has so far declares the continuation of the reforms.

According to Anton Surikov, we are talking about measures of state regulation, which should stop smuggling and illegal production. Last year, he noted, through illegal channels, about 60 billion cigarettes were received by the Russian market, which was why the budget lost about $ 1.2 billion. Tabakprom JSC, however, believes that smuggling does not exceed 15 billion pieces per year and another 5 billion. The composition is underground production.

It is curious that, when making a decision to regulate the tobacco industry, the government did not consider it necessary to consult with Western corporations working in our market, the largest investors in national industry today. True, the working group listened to representatives of Tabakprom JSC, uniting domestic tobacco factories. According to the head of Tabakprom JSC Vasily Terevtsov, they spoke out for the introduction of state licensing (today only trade is licensed) in Russia annually to firms, in addition to official distabatic products.

Approximately ributers are produced, cigarettes purchases for raming to topics by representatives of the western 170 billion. The Siysk market, what are the sizes of parties of corporations are also ready for cooperation from which about which and the prices of procurement are impossible, since 14% make VU and the government. “We sent international contracts often bear a multi -stage letter to the government with a request (for example, the Russian company to listen to us,” said, in private is being in the GTK of the brand, sends them to be carried, Alik Tuigunov from Philip Morris. “A repose of the foreign firm, located in the offshore zone, and the one in the The smuggling will be welcomed to the factories).

The largest large companies, ”said the representative of one of the investment as the director of corporate relations in R.J.R. Western tobacco companies,“ we know, the Russian branch of RJ Petro ”, which is what the developers of various economyNolds (RJR) Vadim Botsan -Kharchenko. With full loading of the programs, different views in relation to us, we could advise something here can be capable of up to 50 manufacturers. the tobacco industry, and some to drive. " According to the emergency manager of the cigarettes in a year, the rowing heads are ready for radical men in British-american (last year. "For example, the press secretary of Yuri Tobacco Vladimir Aksenov, Maslyukov recognized that native tobacco companies are being worked out before 37 billion pieces).

The question of the possibility of creating a central program according to the regulatory factory is the most large belonged wholesale network of sales (it is necessary to push the tobacco market, based on the RJR to assume, state) tobacco out of international experience.

All over the world.

Deliy. What this can lead to, the bestowal to suppress smuggling and replenishment of budget revenues does not have to go to radical measures. Western companies offer, for example, to issue excise stamps for imported cigarettes only tobacco companies with their representative offices in Russia. Then they will be able to issue stamps to distributors for each import part and report to the GTK about its sizes, the sum of contracts, etc. Today, any company that has a license for foreign economic activity (it is enough to submit an application to the GTK). Then the stamps are sent to foreign tobacco factories. And tracking is not difficult to slip. Over the past few years, an effective sales system has established tobacco products. Large companies have acquired a limited circle of distributors distributing imported and domestic products. These are all legal companies that do not hide from taxes and which are therefore easy to control. Distributors were engaged in marketing market research by regions, had their own wholesalers. If the current system collapses, not only interruptions in cigarettes, but also budget losses are not excluded.

To regulate the import, the government, according to business circles, may also go to create the Institute of Special porters of raw materials for tobacco industry. And this is even worse than centralized wholesale. The domestic tobacco industry is 95% on imported raw materials (not only tobacco, but also filters, cigarette paper). All large companies purchase tobacco on their channels and exactly the one that is needed for the production of specific brands. The centralization of the import of raw materials will inevitably lead to a deterioration in the quality of products, since state importers will try to purchase raw materials cheaper. But, most importantly, interruptions in the supply are possible, and hence the interruptions from the cigarette. After all, the state simply does not have money for the purchase of tobacco. The state importer will not first take money from manufacturers, and then bring them raw materials. According to a representative of one of the Western companies, "we will never agree to this, it is easier for us to stop production."

The import of imports today, according to Business Analytica Europe Ltd., accounts for more than 40% of the market (the annual market is estimated at 260-270 billion pieces of smoking products). If the state also wants to introduce a centralized import of cigarettes, then smokers can only regret it. We'll have to smoke what the specialists like, and when they find funds for this. Here it is just right to recall the 1990 tobacco rebels, when the government urgently had to find currency in order to centrally purchase a large batch of cigarettes in the United States.

For lack of stamp, we write on a simple

Meanwhile, due to paralysis of the banking system, interruptions in the tobacco market, as well as in other commodity markets, have already begun. Some factories were stopped, including those belonging to Western companies. For example, for ten days in early September, the St. Petersburg factory "R.J.R.-Petro", the property of Rjreynolds, was idle. According to Andrei Rogov from the external relations of the Russian branch of RJR, the economic crisis forced to wait to establish the optimal ratio between the current level of sales and the volume of products. Now, he claims, the factory works in the same mode.

However, to this day, according to Vasily Terevtsov, many factories do not work at full capacity. “Production in recent months has decreased by an average of 20 percent, he said. It is good that there are still cigarettes in warehouses for a month and a half. ”

Specific difficulties arise due to the characteristics of regional policy. For example, in order to avoid deficiency, it is forbidden to export essential goods from Moscow. And although cigarettes do not fall into this list, tobacco distributors complain that they have problems. “The traffic cops standing on the Moscow border are either reinsurance, wrapping trucks with cigarettes, or are engaged in frank extortion,” he said. But it is from Moscow that a considerable part of the imported and domestic products diverges. In the same regions where the authorities are trying to regulate prices, interruptions occur with cigarettes. No one wants to trade at a loss, and therefore prefers to hide the goods and wait for further prices.

In August-September, due to financial economic problems, many companies did not carry out imported purchases. Today they sell old reserves. The further fate of imports depends on the mark on which the dollar rate is stabilized and how soon the banking system begins to function.

Meanwhile, it is already clear that structural changes in the domestic tobacco market cannot be avoided. Cigarettes went up several times, so that their consumption can be reduced. Most likely due to those who smoke for the nozzle. And such among smokers, according to experts, from 2 to 7% (in general in the country, about 40% of the population over 18 years old). In addition, smokers will probably switch to cheaper varieties, which will entail redistribution in the ratio of imported and domestic goods, as well as a change in the structure of demand for certain brands.

Some of their admirers will lose their luxury cigarettes (such as Parliament, Davidoff, Piert Cardin at an average of up to 1.9 dollars per pack), which had 3.7% of the sigarette market before the crisis. The losses of this segment will most likely be insignificant, mainly due to those who smoked expensive cigarettes not every day, but on holidays or to let dust in the eyes.

Two other price segments will affect much more structural changes: the so-called Premium (Marlboro, Camel, Winston, Rothmans, the price on average 0.87-1.1 dollars per pack) and MID (such as L&M, West, the price of 0.5-0.7 dollars per pack), which accounted for about 23% of the market. Smokers who prefer Premium cigarettes to the crisis will turn their eyes to Sub-Premium class cigarettes (Chesterfield, Mall, Lucky Strike, the price of 0.63-0.8 dollars), whose share in the market was approximately %. Of the listed brands in the most favorable position of the Chesterfield cigarette, which, according to Alik Tuigunov, are not imported, but are fully produced in Russian factories.

Products manufactured in Russia do not depend directly on the dollar. Of the approximately 170 billion cigarettes per year, which are produced in Russia, about 14% are international brands. Philip Morris, in addition to the Chesterfield brand, makes Bond Street, Apollo Soyuz, Apollo Soyuz. RJR produces Magna and Monte Carlo cigarettes. Rothmans Cigarettes Dallas. All this (with the exception of Chesterfield) - cheap stamps, which, in all likelihood, will switch the MID class smokers.

Representatives of tobacco companies fear that the share of cheap Turkish, Chinese and mainly Bulgarian cigarettes will increase (they accounted for only 2% of the market). Bulgarian cigarettes are direct competitors of domestic both in price and type. The influx of cigarettes from the CIS countries, for example, from Ukraine, which, by the way, is not subject to VAT, is not excluded.

However, experts believe, in general, market structure will change in favor of domestic products. The most promoted brands will be especially won. For example, the MID class also includes two national brands - “Peter” (RJR is developed and produced at the St. Petersburg factory) and “Golden Java” (Vat), the price of which, respectively, 0.5 and 0.6 dollars per pack. "Peter" is similar to the L&M cigarettes quite popular with us (before the crisis, we occupied up to 90% of the MID segment), coming to us only by imports. And the "Golden Java" can win due to the fame of the brand.

In any case, as experts note, the biggest problem for our industry is raw materials. If the banking system does not work and there will be problems with the currency, factories, whatever they specialize in - a cheap product or higher class cigarettes will have to be tight. While the industry lives old reserves. “A noticeable deficit can occur from the beginning of next year,” said Vasily Terevtsov. ■