A nation in debt

Why Russians are increasingly turning to loans, despite rising interest rates meant to deter them

On July 26, Russia’s Central Bank decided to raise the key interest rate from 16 to 18 percent. This decision was driven by unexpectedly high lending rates that previous regulatory measures had failed to curb. Russians are borrowing money and spending more, leading to a surge in prices. Inflation over the past year reached nine percent, far exceeding the government’s target of four percent. Meduza explains just how indebted Russians are and if this surge in lending is a serious issue for the authorities.

Why are Russians taking out loans?

According to Russia’s Central Bank, the volume of loans issued in the country has been steadily increasing since the spring of 2022. A few days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the bank raised its key rate to a prohibitive 20 percent, effectively halting all lending. However, it soon began bringing it back down. In April of that year, banks across the country issued loans totaling 859 billion rubles ($9.9 billion); by December, this figure had grown to two trillion ($23.1 billion).

In mid-2023, the Central Bank began raising the key rate again. Russians, realizing that loans were becoming more expensive, started applying for them sooner, causing overall loan volumes to jump to 2.4 trillion rubles ($27.8 billion) per month. This growth continued into 2024, driven by further government measures. Early this year, Russian authorities discussed curtailing preferential programs, primarily subsidized mortgages (a highly advantageous program for borrowers: while market rates were around 20 percent, the government offered loans at eight percent). Additionally, the Central Bank signaled a potential key rate increase. In response, Russians rushed to secure loans before rates increased. While the Central Bank has yet to release its official June report, analysts from Frank RG estimated that the volume of loans issued to individuals in that month increased by 13.74 percent (up 202.1 billion rubles, or $2.3 billion, compared to May 2024).

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Another significant factor is income growth. Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina noted that people take out loans because “they’re confident in their future incomes” and feel they can “finance an improved life now.” According to Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), real disposable incomes grew by more than five percent in 2023 and continued to grow in 2024. Independent analysts indirectly confirmed this, noting that consumer confidence indices are near historical highs.

The main driver of this income growth is the rapid increase in wages across many sectors of the Russian economy. As of April this year, nominal wages at large and medium-sized companies increased on average by 17 percent compared to April 2023, while real wages, adjusted for inflation, rose by 8.5 percent. Russian companies have to raise wages to attract employees as there’s a severe labor shortage in the job market.

Wages are growing fastest in industries fulfilling government defense orders. For example, in the production of “metal products” (as non-classified military goods are referred to in official statistics), wages increased by 24 percent in the span of a year. In the production of electronic products, which are also mainly supplied to the Russian army, wages rose by 28 percent.

As of May 2024, Russians owed banks more than 35.2 trillion rubles (over $408 billion). According to Meduza’s calculations, this represents an increase of nearly 22 percent in just one year. However, it’s not a record figure: in April, the amount owed was 36.6 trillion rubles ($423.6 billion). The payday loan segment grew even more rapidly, increasing by 28 percent in 2023, with Russians taking out 900 billion rubles ($10.4 billion) in loans. This growth continued into the first quarter of 2024, although the average loan amount remains around 10,000 rubles ($117).

Consumer lending has grown by 18 percent year-on-year, which economists attribute to the popularity of credit cards. Additionally, car loans have increased by 26 percent since the beginning of the year, which isn’t surprising given the record low availability of cars. Even pawnshops are showing positive trends: while there isn’t an increase in contracts, the average sum paid out gone up due to the rise in cost of precious metals.

As a result, the number of Russians with loans has reached 50 million. This is 40 percent of the country’s adult population. Over a quarter of these borrowers have more than three simultaneous loans, according to the Scoring Bureau credit history bureau. And that’s not the limit: 8.6 percent have taken out five or more loans, and the share of such debtors has doubled in two years.

One explanation is the popularity of mortgages. Eight out of 10 people with a mortgage also took out an additional loan, either for the down payment or for renovations. However, Scoring Bureau, attributes the increase to something else: the growing popularity of credit cards. In Russia, 27 million people have opened 91 million credit cards. Still, Central Bank representatives have expressed concern over the high level of indebtedness among Russians and mentioned “extreme cases,” including one person with 27 loans.

So Russians are saddled with debt?

Although more Russians are taking out loans, the average debt burden of the population — the share of household income spent on loan repayments — has remained relatively stable over the past few years. The Central Bank publishes data on this twice a year, and in the latest report from April, it noted that while the average debt burden has increased, it hovers around 11.2 percent. By comparison, in the first quarter of 2022, the average was even higher, peaking at 12.1 percent, and has since fluctuated within a two-percentage-point range. However, it’s important to note that this is an average, and some borrowers’ debt burden is significantly higher. Currently, 56 percent of borrowers in Russia have a debt burden of over 50 percent.

Another indicator of financial stability is the share of so-called bad debts — those with payments overdue by more than 90 days. In the consumer sector, this remains stable and doesn’t exceed eight percent, according to the Central Bank. According to a forecast from the ACRA rating agency, in 2024, the share of overdue debt in banks’ retail portfolios will not exceed three to four percent. The online lending service Moneyman calculated that Russians who take out payday loans actually repay their debts early in 43 percent of cases.

Frank RG analysts confirmed that the level of overdue debt and indebtedness indicators aren’t increasing. They pointed out that the ratio of the retail credit portfolio to GDP doesn’t exceed 30 percent, whereas in developed countries, the figure can reach up to 100 percent. Ivan Uklein, director of bank ratings at the Expert RA agency, believes that demographic factors alone may be driving the increase in the number of loans: in his opinion, Russia’s “boomer generation,” unaccustomed to living on credit, is starting to make way for bolder millennials

Of course, there are also skeptics. The Communist Party (KPRF) described the level of indebtedness as “catastrophic” and called for a credit amnesty for families with children. The Central Bank has identified problematic mortgage practices, with banks issuing loans to borrowers who already had a high debt burden. Kommersant reported that problematic credit card debt is at an all-time high in Russia, though the publication clarified that this growth is proportional to the increase in the number of credit cards issued. And RBC pointed to the slow but steady growth of debts involving bankrupt or deceased borrowers, where collection is impossible.

Indeed, personal bankruptcies have increased. The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting predicts this trend will continue, as current rates prevent borrowers from taking out new loans to repay old ones. According to a survey by the Higher School of Economics, 70 percent of large families in Russia have loans, often can’t save money, and are sometimes forced to forgo essentials due to a lack of funds. The Federal Tax Service also reported issues, stating that 1.3 trillion rubles ($15 billion) in payments for 2023 were overdue.

Is the government worried?

The main risk lies with borrowers who have a high debt burden, those who spend 50 or even 80 percent of their salary on loan repayments. Elizaveta Danilova, the head of the Central Bank’s financial stability department, explained: “When the economy is doing well, [when] there’s work, and wages are rising, people with a high debt burden manage to cope. During crises, everything changes. We saw this during the pandemic. There were many requests for loan payment deferrals and those with the highest debt burdens and off-the-books incomes faced the greatest challenges.”

Last year, the Central Bank set limits on how much banks and payday loan organizations can lend to high-risk clients. Under the updated rules, that amount can be zero in some cases. As a result, the share of new contracts with high-risk borrowers fell to 14 percent in the first quarter of 2024, down from 36 percent in 2022. Additionally, banks must now inform such borrowers about potential risks and difficulties, even if they plan to take out less than 10,000 rubles ($117). For payday loans, the total cost of credit, including principle and interest, has been capped at 292 percent per annum.

The financial authorities claim that the current debt burden of Russians “looks acceptable.” The focus is on gradually slowing down lending: preferential mortgages ended on July 1, and market rates should deter borrowers. Developers have reported that demand for new apartments has already slowed by 14 to 30 percent. Egor Susin, the managing director at Gazprombank Private Banking, wrote that similar trends can be expected in other areas: construction plays an important role in business loans, and consumer loans were growing because people needed to cover down payments.

A survey conducted by Sravni showed that two-thirds of Russians have put off buying real estate due to the end of preferential programs. The United Credit Bureau noted a slowdown in car loans after a recent peak, which was also driven by government support measures. VTB Bank expects a decrease in demand for consumer loans, and Russian banks’ profits have been falling for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, the Russian State Duma is preparing for a possible crisis. Deputies have passed a bill that will safeguard a bankrupt individual’s only home from being seized, even if it’s mortgaged.