Shifting the war to Russia’s territory

Top Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak on the political goals of Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into the Kursk region

In the 10 days since Ukrainian forces began an unprecedented incursion into western Russia, officials in Kyiv have offered only restrained comments. Though there’s a lot of speculation about Ukraine’s aims, the ultimate goal of the ongoing offensive remains unclear. To find out more about how the Ukrainian army’s foray into Russia’s Kursk region could change the tide of the war, Meduza special correspondent Elizaveta Antonova spoke to Mykhailo Podolyak, the top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has four key political aims, but holding territory isn’t one of them, top Ukrainian presidential advisor Myhailo Podolyak told Meduza in an interview. “Ukraine isn’t setting itself the goal of occupying this territory, but is waging a defensive war and only destroying military facilities,” he said.

According to Podolyak, Ukraine aims to push back Russian artillery to protect its civilian population from shelling and to cut off logistics routes that allow Russia to move reserves across the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line. The operation also aims to highlight the failure of Russia’s military and civilian leadership, he said: “Once again, their actions prove they have little control over the situation. In this sense, little has changed since the Wagner march in 2023. Accordingly, it should be obvious to our [international] partners that Russia isn’t strong enough to control the internal risks that are gradually increasing due to the war.”

Finally, Kyiv aims “to shift the war to Russia’s territory,” Podolyak said. “Upon entering the Kursk region, we saw how shocked people were: they live in an alternate reality. To them it seems the war is taking place next door, on the territory of European countries, and they face no risks. Now, they’re seeing a completely different situation. Of course, all this will have serious social consequences for Russia,” he explained.

Podolyak declined to comment on the offensive’s military aims. “Only the military command can comment on military goals. Of course, no one is going to talk about this publicly during the operation itself,” he said.

According to Russian officials, the fighting in the Kursk region has killed at least 12 civilians and injured 121 others. Russia has evacuated more than 120,000 residents from border regions and ordered the evacuation of around 180,000 people in total. Another 2,000 people living in areas now under Ukrainian control are officially considered missing.

However, Podolyak said that Kyiv “does not intend to establish any occupation administrations.” According to the Zelensky advisor, some residents may be evacuated to other parts of Russia via humanitarian corridors, and Kyiv also intends to provide civilians with humanitarian aid. “Ukraine will not wage war on the civilian population,” Podolyak stressed. “We are fighting a war under conditions of scarcity [of resources] and the main thing for us is to achieve military objectives — that is, to destroy military facilities.”

Podolyak said he wasn’t aware of any civilian casualties in the areas controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, adding that if there are any victims, “they will be identified.” At the same time, he argued that Russian officials should have organized evacuations more effectively. “[The Russian authorities] postponed statements and necessary decisions, all while trying to sugarcoat the situation in the region. All of this leads to certain humanitarian risks. But these risks are due to Russia’s unwillingness to acknowledge that the war is taking place on Russian territory,” he said.

Asked whether Ukrainian forces are trying to establish a permanent foothold in the Kursk region, Podolyak was evasive. “If such an opportunity [arises], you do it — you dig in. You build fortifications, bring in reserves, and, most importantly, ensure logistical connections on site with the main forces,” he said.

“Again, from a military perspective, I’m not ready to say whether Ukraine needs [to dig in] or not. But from the perspective of [...] the operational situation on this front, of course this needs to be done, because it allows us to expand the theater of military operations on Russian territory, [which] makes it possible to scale up [our] political objectives.”

After Kyiv advanced into Russia, President Vladimir Putin ruled out negotiations. But the way Podolyak sees it, there was no real possibility of peace talks anyway. “[Putin] never proposed negotiations in the classical sense. He always suggested capitulation on the Russian Federation’s terms. Of course, no one will accept these conditions,” he told Meduza. “No one will negotiate with Putin on Putin’s terms.”

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According to Podolyak, Ukrainian officials believe that Russia will only come to the negotiating table once the Kremlin “realizes that the cost of the war for [Russia] is increasing.” “What’s happening in the Kursk region is yet another military defeat for the Russian Federation. Will this instrument of coercion [...] lead to negotiations? Not on its own, but in combination with other factors it will,” he said. “We’re ready for negotiations, but on the basis of international law,” Podolyak added.

Podolyak also said that Ukraine is prepared to carry out the “broadest possible” prisoner exchange. Earlier this week, President Zelensky said that Kyiv planned to exchange “hundreds of Russian soldiers” who had surrendered during the Kursk offensive for Ukrainian soldiers and civilians in Russian captivity. “We’re always ready for a broad exchange,” Podolyak said. “And since our exchange fund is being replenished with conscripts, Russia will probably need to bring back people who are 18–20 years old and who were guaranteed they wouldn’t participate in combat.”

In a statement yesterday, Zelensky recalled the Kursk submarine disaster, which killed 118 Russian sailors 24 years ago this week. Asked if the Ukrainian military timed the surprise offensive in the Kursk region to coincide with this anniversary, Podolyak claimed he “didn’t see any symbolism” in the attack itself.

“I see symbolism in the fact that Putin’s rule began with the submarine disaster,” he explained, comparing the Russian president’s mishandling of the crisis with his attitude towards the civilian population of the regions bordering Ukraine. “Absolute indifference and unwillingness to offer any significant assistance [has] characterized the entire period of Putin’s reign. And, of course, this is very symbolic,” Podolyak said. “However, Ukraine has nothing to do with this symbolism. For us, it’s important to time our operations so they’re effectively prepared and produce the necessary result.”

Interview by Elizaveta Antonova

Summarized for Meduza-in-English by Eilish Hart