Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: Battles in Belgorod, AFU pull back from Sudzha, “Long Neptune” missile reaches Tuapse oil refinery • The Insider • RIMA — архив российских независимых медиа
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) attempted to break through the border into Russia’s Belgorod Region, targeting a small section in the Krasnoyaruzhsky District.
Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from the town of Sudzha, reducing their foothold in the Kursk Region to around 100 square kilometers.
Near Pokrovsk, Ukrainian troops have reclaimed five villages as part of ongoing “stabilization” efforts.
Russian forces have launched an offensive west of Orekhov in the Zaporizhzhia sector, though so far, these remain limited tactical maneuvers.
Russian troops have secured a new bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskol River, north of Kupyansk.
Ukraine has reportedly used its long-range “Long Neptune” missile in combat for the first time, possibly striking an oil refinery in the Russian Black Sea city of Tuapse.
Unarmored vehicles now account for 85% of Russian military equipment losses.
The Insider has published an analysis of U.S. military aid to Ukraine and its impact on the course of the war.
Situation at the front
This past week saw Ukrainian troops attempt a push into the Belgorod Region, focusing on a small stretch of the border in Krasnoyaruzhsky District. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have repelled the attack, and the Ukrainian side did sustain military equipment losses. However, by the morning of the second day, March 19, Ukrainian units had advanced to positions near Grafovka and Demidovka, roughly two kilometers from the border. By the third day, pro-Russian military blogger Yury Podolyaka wrote that Ukrainian forces had been partially encircled in Demidovka. Later in the evening, the pro-war channel Arkhangel Spetsnaza reported that they had dug in on the outskirts of Demidovka and Prilesye. Authorities in Belgorod urged residents of Krasnoyaruzhsky District to evacuate, though no formal evacuation order was issued.
TheDefense Forces of Ukraine (DFU) is a collective term that refers to all Ukrainian uniformed agencies participating in combat operations. In addition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they include, in particular, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, the National Police, the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.
«Lost to location tracking« is a phrase used in reports by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reference to Russian long-range drones that were either neutralized using electronic warfare systems or turned out to be decoy drones, carrying no warheads and falling without causing harm.
FPV drones are unmanned aerial vehicles that are controlled by an operator from a first-person perspective. The advantage of such systems is that the operator clearly sees where the drone is flying (most often a kamikaze drone), which allows, for example, flying into shelters and hitting individual unprotected elements of military equipment.
On March 21, Ukrainian assault groups continued their attempts to advance toward Grafovka and Demidovka but failed to capture either settlement. However, the objective of the operation may not be to seize territory but rather to prevent Russian forces freed up in the Kursk Region from being redeployed to other sectors of the front in Ukraine.
TheDefense Forces of Ukraine (DFU) is a collective term that refers to all Ukrainian uniformed agencies participating in combat operations. In addition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they include, in particular, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, the National Police, the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.
«Lost to location tracking« is a phrase used in reports by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reference to Russian long-range drones that were either neutralized using electronic warfare systems or turned out to be decoy drones, carrying no warheads and falling without causing harm.
FPV drones are unmanned aerial vehicles that are controlled by an operator from a first-person perspective. The advantage of such systems is that the operator clearly sees where the drone is flying (most often a kamikaze drone), which allows, for example, flying into shelters and hitting individual unprotected elements of military equipment.
Meanwhile, in the Kursk Region, Ukraine’s military presence has shrunk to an area of about 100 square kilometers along the border. Ukrainian sources confirmed (1, 2) their withdrawal from the district center of Sudzha. At this point, the AFU is holding its border positions in order to prevent a large-scale Russian offensive into Ukraine’s Sumy Region. At the same time, Russian forces continued their efforts to advance past the border through the village of Basivka — which they partially occupied — in an attempt to physically cut off the logistics of remaining Ukrainian units in the region.
TheDefense Forces of Ukraine (DFU) is a collective term that refers to all Ukrainian uniformed agencies participating in combat operations. In addition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they include, in particular, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, the National Police, the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.
«Lost to location tracking« is a phrase used in reports by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reference to Russian long-range drones that were either neutralized using electronic warfare systems or turned out to be decoy drones, carrying no warheads and falling without causing harm.
FPV drones are unmanned aerial vehicles that are controlled by an operator from a first-person perspective. The advantage of such systems is that the operator clearly sees where the drone is flying (most often a kamikaze drone), which allows, for example, flying into shelters and hitting individual unprotected elements of military equipment.
In the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian defense forces recaptured the village of Shevchenko — the fifth settlement taken in ongoing “stabilization” counterattacks west and southwest of Pokrovsk. These counterattacks continued along the entire frontline. Russian troops, however, made tactical gains along the Nadezhdynka–Preobrazhenka line (1, 2) and in the area of the village of Zaporizhzhia (in Donetsk Region, not to be confused with the Ukrainian regional center of the same name). Heavy clashes took place in Uspenovka, where Russian forces in unarmored vehicles suffered significant losses.
TheDefense Forces of Ukraine (DFU) is a collective term that refers to all Ukrainian uniformed agencies participating in combat operations. In addition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they include, in particular, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, the National Police, the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.
«Lost to location tracking« is a phrase used in reports by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reference to Russian long-range drones that were either neutralized using electronic warfare systems or turned out to be decoy drones, carrying no warheads and falling without causing harm.
FPV drones are unmanned aerial vehicles that are controlled by an operator from a first-person perspective. The advantage of such systems is that the operator clearly sees where the drone is flying (most often a kamikaze drone), which allows, for example, flying into shelters and hitting individual unprotected elements of military equipment.
In the Zaporizhzhia direction, both Russian and Ukrainian sources reported (1, 2, 3) Russian offensive actions near Piatykhatky, Stepove, Shcherbaky, and Maly Shcherbaky, west of Orikhiv. Geolocation data indicates that Russian assault units at the very least managed to enter the latter settlement. Military analyst Konstantin Mashovets described these attacks as purely tactical in nature.
TheDefense Forces of Ukraine (DFU) is a collective term that refers to all Ukrainian uniformed agencies participating in combat operations. In addition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they include, in particular, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, the National Police, the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.
«Lost to location tracking« is a phrase used in reports by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reference to Russian long-range drones that were either neutralized using electronic warfare systems or turned out to be decoy drones, carrying no warheads and falling without causing harm.
FPV drones are unmanned aerial vehicles that are controlled by an operator from a first-person perspective. The advantage of such systems is that the operator clearly sees where the drone is flying (most often a kamikaze drone), which allows, for example, flying into shelters and hitting individual unprotected elements of military equipment.
In the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops spent the week attempting to advance toward Kupyansk from the north, through Kondrashivka and Mala Shapkivka, using their bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskol River (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). An attempt to expand this bridgehead toward Fyholivka failed, but Russian forces succeeded in establishing another foothold near Krasne Pershe.
According to calculations by Agentstvo. Novosti, which the outlet based on information from DeepState maps, Russian forces gained 22.5 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine between March 10 and 16. For the third consecutive week, this figure has remained at its lowest level since the spring of 2024. However, the average number of combat engagements reported by Ukraine’s General Staff increased by 21% during the same period, even as Russian activity in the Kursk direction declined.
Mutual strikes and sabotage
Over the past week, Ukraine’s Air Force reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) shooting down 591 Shahed-type and other unidentified drones out of 1,109 launched at Ukrainian territory. An additional 405 drones were “lost to location tracking.“ Reports also mentioned eight Russian missile launches of various types, though no interceptions were claimed. Ukraine’s Drone Systems Forces stated that they had recently downed 10 Shahed drones using an unspecified $5,000 munition.
Meanwhile, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported intercepting 526 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones over Russian territory and Crimea. The ministry also issued an unprecedented statement on the destruction of seven of its own drones, which it claimed had been launched against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure but were shot down following Putin’s order imposing a moratorium on such strikes.
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the first successful combat use against ground targets of the “Long Neptune” — a modified long-range version of the R-360 Neptune anti-ship missile. According to sources cited by Ukrainska Pravda, the missile struck an oil refinery in Tuapse on March 14.
TheDefense Forces of Ukraine (DFU) is a collective term that refers to all Ukrainian uniformed agencies participating in combat operations. In addition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they include, in particular, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, the National Police, the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.
«Lost to location tracking« is a phrase used in reports by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reference to Russian long-range drones that were either neutralized using electronic warfare systems or turned out to be decoy drones, carrying no warheads and falling without causing harm.
FPV drones are unmanned aerial vehicles that are controlled by an operator from a first-person perspective. The advantage of such systems is that the operator clearly sees where the drone is flying (most often a kamikaze drone), which allows, for example, flying into shelters and hitting individual unprotected elements of military equipment.
On the night of March 21, a fire broke out at the Sudzha gas metering station in Ukraine-controlled territory of the Kursk Region. Russia’s Defense Ministry called the incident a Ukrainian provocation, while Ukraine’s General Staff denied any involvement.
TheDefense Forces of Ukraine (DFU) is a collective term that refers to all Ukrainian uniformed agencies participating in combat operations. In addition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they include, in particular, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, the National Police, the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.
«Lost to location tracking« is a phrase used in reports by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reference to Russian long-range drones that were either neutralized using electronic warfare systems or turned out to be decoy drones, carrying no warheads and falling without causing harm.
FPV drones are unmanned aerial vehicles that are controlled by an operator from a first-person perspective. The advantage of such systems is that the operator clearly sees where the drone is flying (most often a kamikaze drone), which allows, for example, flying into shelters and hitting individual unprotected elements of military equipment.
According to data collected by the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), at least 33 civilians were killed and 262 wounded in shelling of civilian infrastructure on both sides of the front over the past week.
Losses
The independent exited Russian publication Mediazona, in collaboration with BBC News Russian and a team of volunteers, updated its tally of Russian losses based on open-source reports. As of March 21, 2025, the named list of confirmed Russian fatalities stands at 99,113.
Pro-Russian sources continued sharing footage of Ukrainian military equipment captured in the Kursk Region, most of it in damaged condition. According to analyst Naalsio, at least 39 pieces of Ukrainian military equipment were “trophied” in the region between Feb. 17 and March 17. Overall, confirmed losses during the operation amount to 676 pieces of Ukrainian equipment and 720 on the Russian side.
TheDefense Forces of Ukraine (DFU) is a collective term that refers to all Ukrainian uniformed agencies participating in combat operations. In addition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they include, in particular, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, the National Police, the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.
«Lost to location tracking« is a phrase used in reports by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reference to Russian long-range drones that were either neutralized using electronic warfare systems or turned out to be decoy drones, carrying no warheads and falling without causing harm.
FPV drones are unmanned aerial vehicles that are controlled by an operator from a first-person perspective. The advantage of such systems is that the operator clearly sees where the drone is flying (most often a kamikaze drone), which allows, for example, flying into shelters and hitting individual unprotected elements of military equipment.
The open-source intelligence (OSINT) project WarSpotting reports a consistently low level of visually confirmed Russian equipment and weaponry losses over the past three weeks. Researcher Vitaly notes a further decline in the share of armored vehicles in Russia’s total losses — tanks now account for just 5%, armored fighting vehicles 10%, while unarmored transport makes up 85%. Analyst Andrew Perpetua confirms a similar trend and has compiled a breakdown of February 2025 equipment losses for both sides. According to his findings, approximately 17% of Ukraine’s losses during this period were attributed to Russia’s Rubikon UAV Center (328 out of 1,965).
Weapons and military equipment
During negotiations with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin proposed stopping U.S. military aid to Ukraine as a prerequisite for a 30-day ceasefire. However, Trump himself claimed that military assistance was not discussed during his talks with Putin.
The Insider published an analysis on the significance of American military aid to Ukraine, emphasizing that U.S. support is critical mainly for specific categories of weaponry: air defense systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, high-precision long-range aviation and artillery munitions, as well as communication and command systems.
Ukraine is reportedly running low on Aster-30 missiles for its French-Italian SAMP/T air defense systems. Apart from the Patriot PAC-3, which is entirely dependent on U.S. deliveries, these are the only missiles in Ukraine’s arsenal capable of intercepting enemy ballistic missiles.
Ukrainian engineers continue experimenting with Soviet-era R-73 air-to-air missiles, previously mounted on Osa air defense systems and unmanned combat vehicles. A mobile air defense system based on the HMMWV, equipped with these missiles, has been spotted in service with Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade.
Meanwhile, a Russian T-72B3M tank equipped with the Arena-M active protection system was observed at the front. While designed to counter anti-tank guided missiles, its effectiveness against drones remains questionable. Russian Zala reconnaissance drones, on the other hand, have reportedly been fitted with a mass-produced evasion system utilizing machine vision in order to protect them against FPV interceptors (1, 2).
Over the past week, Russian frontline troops have showcased the following improvised modifications:
Remote-detonation mines camouflaged with cheap oil paint and dirt
BMP-1 with additional armor and rubber plating and a makeshift “passenger cabin” for troops
MTLB armored vehicle modified with an expanded troop compartment
Msta-S self-propelled howitzer reinforced with logs placed over the cope cage
TheDefense Forces of Ukraine (DFU) is a collective term that refers to all Ukrainian uniformed agencies participating in combat operations. In addition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they include, in particular, the National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, the National Police, the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Shahed is the name of a family of Iranian kamikaze drones, specifically the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136. The localized Russian versions are called «Geran-1» and «Geran-2» and are produced at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan. The flight range of the «Geran-2» drone is up to 2,500 km, with a warhead weight of 50 kg.
«Lost to location tracking« is a phrase used in reports by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reference to Russian long-range drones that were either neutralized using electronic warfare systems or turned out to be decoy drones, carrying no warheads and falling without causing harm.
FPV drones are unmanned aerial vehicles that are controlled by an operator from a first-person perspective. The advantage of such systems is that the operator clearly sees where the drone is flying (most often a kamikaze drone), which allows, for example, flying into shelters and hitting individual unprotected elements of military equipment.
