Putin as a gap?

Suppose we don’t give a damn about high words. Suppose we are brutal-pragmatic powers-well, approximately how Putin V.V. That way, slightly old.

What are we observing if without snot? In Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov controls the situation, but is not a servist. In Ingushetia, Murat Zyazikov, on the contrary, is a hundred percent service, but the situations are ah! - Not controlled. The first squeezes the federal security forces, replacing them with their nuker. The second, on the contrary, flooded Ingushetia by the Russian military and all the time requires new ones. And the result?

It is stupid to compare the dzhigits in the coordinates of morality, humanity, law listening and other alien values. Let's try to compare them by functional adequacy. In the sovereign style. Adequacy No. 1 - ensuring military control in the subordinate territory. Adequacy No. 2 - loyalty to the center. Adnections No. 3 - the ability to economic development. The third point is implied, but temporarily deposited to a bright future. According to the magazine "Finance Online" (www.finansmag.ru), Ingushetia in terms of gross regional product per capita confidently occupies the last place in Russia: 1.3 thousand dollars per person per year. Like in Rwanda. Chechnya stands nearby (1.9 thousand dollars) and corresponds to Sudan.

To make it clear: the average resident of Ingushetia produces in a month of goods and services for about 100 cu Noticeably less than gets salaries or pensions. How so? And so. Using Soviet terminology, a planning unprofitable economy. The budget by almost 100% consists of subsidies of the federal center. That is, the population of all other Russia takes several rubles monthly so that General Zyazikov can further hold the steering wheel in corpus callosum.

The subsidies of the neighboring Chechnya (only official!) Amount to more than $ 1.5 billion a year. Roughly speaking, ten to twelve bucks from each Russian citizen, including old people and babies. Well, or the dollar per month. If you like, 25 rubles each. It can be considered differently. If a kilometer of a good modern autobahn costs a million dollars, then every year Russia only in Chechnya burns two high-speed multi-lane highways Moscow-Petersburg.

But there is also Adygea (economic analogue of Lesoto), Dagestan (Ecuador), Karachay-Cherkessia (Sri Lanka), Kabardino-Balkaria (Paraguay), etc.

Here, somehow in a new way, you comprehend Gogol's words about fools and roads. The more fools with geopolitical ambitions, the worse in domestic Russia with roads. The most interesting thing is that we, as a people, agree with this. For many centuries. What is such an economy, what are the roads and comfort if we are talking about a power! Not to mushrooms.

The devil with her, with adequacy No. 3. But the fact that 80 thousand Ingush signatures were not only collected and delivered to Moscow, but also adopted by the Presidential Administration means that Murat Zyazikov is inadequate for the first two points. Or, at least, people who think so appeared in the Kremlin. This was clear to an unbiased observer three or four years ago, but the authorities, unlike an independent observer, did not think with brains, but with a balance of interests. Mr. Zyazikov General of the FSB, his resignation is a blow to the service. According to Putin, the FSB General Viktor Ivanov. And according to Putin himself too. Zyazikova’s departure would become a sign of the strengthening of the Medvedev group. Which, it turns out, is more pragmatic?

Zugzwang. If the president of the republic, a major special service, the closest relatives are stolen at night, like a chicken from a perch, and then return for a ransom, then such a person will discredit both the office and (it is scary to say!) The great principle of prescription of the governors, proclaimed yourself, you know who is just for the sake of struggle with night tatas. The ransom, of course, is paid from the same subsidies. That is, from our modest deductions with you.

Storing the loyalty to the pragmatic sovereign, General Zyazikov, it was high time to second to the guard of the railway station in Kaluga, in the places of Shamil's military glory. But in that grief that Putin's sovereign and Putin pragmatism are not real. Both patriotism and Stalinism in his performance are small and fake, like a hearth in the closet of Pope Carlo. Instead of love for Russia - love for the office.

Actually, great Stalinism was also internally false, but this is a topic of a different scale and another article. So far, we note that Ramzan Kadyrov is a much more natural successor of the case of Stalin than Vladimir Putin. “Asians understand only power,” the leader explained to Churchill. “Believe me, I am an Asian.” Putin, maybe I would like to become the same whole personality, but it doesn’t work out.

With Ramzan is more or less clear. Tell me what to do with Zyazikov! Changing is bad. Not to change is even worse. And if you change - then to whom? Either on the same one (from the office), or to the one who really can deal with local clans in the language that he understands. Approximately like Kadyrov. Then, however, the hypothetical Ingush Ramzan will have the same incomplete loyalty as the Chechen. The support is more on the locals than the federals ... But it was just that General Aushev, right?

So what fought for?! Why cancel the elections?! And where is the vertical then?!

How where? On the wall in the closet of Pope Carlo.

The falsehood of Putin’s centralist rhetoric, which has long been obvious to specialists, today begins to annoy even an ordinary viewer.

Kadyrov keeps the situation under control? Holds. Is Moscow happy? Satisfied. Is the constitutional order entrusted? Injected. The power did not come to the heal of the sacred Russian land? I did not come ...

Although no, wait ... What is the sacred Russian land, what is the constitutional order? Will it occur to a Russian person today to go to Chechnya, buy an apartment there, look for a job, start a business, plant a garden? Well, if only with the personal support of Kadyrov and his Landsknecht - for a quick photo on a glossy cover. The “order” is determined there not by the Constitution and the law, but by the strength and arbitrariness of the first person. Which of the normal people is hunting by goodwill to go to Pahan? On the other hand, if he hadn’t, it will be even worse there.

Like it or not, de facto Chechnya is not our land for a long time. Not for us. The first truly mono-ethnic republic in the Russian Federation. This is if you look at the truth in person and really be brutal-pragmatic. Of course, there is a fair number of people who categorically do not want to look in person. It is more pleasant for them to look at the canvas of Pope Carlo, where Vladimir the Victorious is amazing the fire -breathing gas station British Petroleum.

Putin was rationally pragmatic when he announced a course for "leaky conflict." In fact, not to ruin the infinitely Russian troops and police officers in the bloody mill there. Right? Right. But hence the iron investigation: the “leaky of the conflict” leads to the “leaky” of the local authorities and, ultimately, to the “Chechenization of Chechnya”. That is, to strengthen the independence and independence of Kadyrov. A hundred times it is said that he received a real sovereignty more than Dudaev and Mashadov demanded, but plus the annual tribute from Moscow. The Kremlin does not command them by no means, but respectfully and accurately agrees - as with a sovereign owner. I suppose not Zyazikov.

From the point of view of political practice, this is not about unitary , but about a federal one , if not about the confederate model of relations. Almost so - for example, Moscow ended in Moscow - and the free -loving Kadyrov’s army unfolds bayonets, nationalizes oil production and, under the green flag, declares complete sovereignty. With a guaranteed, allowed to notice, support for the local population.

Therefore, the Kremlin is forced to endure and pay. Every year more and more. Not forgetting, of course, to make a young look. Have you noticed that from the TV-diwal for three years now, how has the word “leaky” disappeared? This is so that to us, viewers, it is easier to get up from the knees. And the truth: if there is legend in kind, why should she also be on TV?

Logic is familiar. We compensate for real deviations with virtual breakthroughs. The system is proven, but only works with complete information isolation. Not only from the outside world, but also from the internal. Otherwise, the gap between the proclaimed values ​​and practical results is too striking.

Or you are truly pragmatic, take care of your people, try to get by with minimal costs and not to allow clashes-and as a result you get Chechnya’s leaks, Ingusheticization of Ingushetia, Dagestanization of Dagestan, etc. With the financial expenses of the Center growing in arithmetic progression to ensure this, in fact, the centrifugal process. Which today is in practice: the Russians are leaving all the more from the Caucasus, the Kremlin pays more and more to the local elites. At the same time, both parties to mutual pleasure pretend that the “vertical” is stronger. And we, therefore, must believe and not notice how the shooting of police officers expands at our expense.

Or you, on the contrary, are irrationally bold and powerful, generously consuming human material, you exterminate the natives with fire and sword, bring them under your sovereign hand and then ... What, in fact, then? Do you populate the purified land with colonists? This is great in the century before last when the spears and flint guns have a spear. And when they have the same AKM as you have? Yes, and "Stingers" ... Besides, where are the colonists? The people are catastrophically lacking. The rattle of the weapon around the KGB colonel KOKOKUTA (another office clone) only increases budget expenses and accelerates the outflow of the Russian -speaking population from the front -line area, but does not add anything fundamentally new to the plot.

The diagnosis is clear: the system of values ​​solemnly declared by Putin, borrowed from the militaristic myth of the USSR, contradicts Putin's everyday political practice. The further, the more. Theoretically, Russia, it seems, is ready to put things in order with fire and a sword, but it practically understands (that part of the elite, which is still able to understand something) that this is a dead end.

Well, let's say our “hawks” climbed into South Ossetia and even won. In the best case, this means the appearance of Russia under the arm of New Chechnya or Ingushetia. Even more poor and hot. In addition to Ossetians, Georgians live there. Compact. This means that Ossetian-Georgian will also be added to Ossetian-Ingush showdowns. And we have to extinguish them. Relatively prosperous against the background of the Caucasian neighbors, North Ossetia turns into a front -line zone. Placement of refugees, rear events, inhibition of normal economic life. Plus, whatever one may say, the first power conflict abroad. Reputational costs and partisans will be more than in Chechnya. Not to mention human and monetary losses.

Come out the balance of losses and acquisitions.

By the way, about the same problem is facing Saakashvili - if he seriously intended to return South Ossetia by force. Therefore, he thinks to me, he has somewhat different plans. Something similar to Putin. So, go to Gogol along the very edge, to scare his and strangers, to specify in world public opinion - and then with dignity to turn the banners and say to compatriots: “Have you seen? I did everything I could. "

All this is wonderful, but walks along the edge often end poorly. When the situation crawled to the level of military rhetoric, it easily gets out of control. South Ossetia in this regard is similar to the Voronya Slobodka Ilf and Petrov. All participants are interested in escalating. Russia - because in peaceful conditions, Georgia goes to NATO, and this is an obvious puncture in the Putin system of values. Kokoits - because he has long and hopelessly failed the economic policy and is in dire need of generous feeding from the Kremlin. The war for him is literally Rodn's mother. Saakashvili - because he was terribly wanting to be known as the reducing agent of Georgian statehood.

In this situation, the horror stories and provocations easily move from the smoldering phase to the open fire phase. Of course, the parties will long and passionately find out who was the first to start. And the war - here it is, at the door. How was it said about a crown Slobodka: flashed simultaneously from four sides?

Irrationality is good that the arguments of reason will not heed. It is easy to start, it is difficult to finish. Only rude material factors are capable of stopping the militaristic hysteria: there is no money, no weapons, no recruits, no food, no strength. Or - the most prosperous outcome? -the forester came and dispersed everyone to such and such a mother.

Now, if Russia found the strength to really take a forester position! But no: stopping the conflict means continuing the Georgian drift to NATO, and this is equal to Putin. Therefore, our forester is not only a forester, but partly also the organizer of forest fires. In order not to accidentally remain idle in someone else's forest.

The sovereign irrationality, emanating from the Soviet militaristic myth and fucked up by oil money, is ready to fight against the bloodied wall (folk forehead!), Through through which all rational humanity moved back in the 50s and 60s of the last century.

She calls it the power of the spirit. State hardness. International duty, finally. Well, remember that brought us to Afghanistan.

Fortunately, Putin is still a rationalist. He found a brilliant, albeit temporary solution. In practice, pragmatically passes one “stronghold” after another, and in theory he rumbles with patriotic rhetoric, mosques thunder and lightning and tirelessly rises from his knees. Actually, this is also nothing new - exactly, to the sounds of Fanfar, the USSR went to its collapse. In today's Russia, the process is more obvious and faster. The deeper the failure, the more fierce shamanic campaigns, a tambourine and more abundant fly agaric foam.

But propaganda hysteria also has its own limit. Earlier or later, the most tempered Patriot will be tired of combat dances and begins to suspect that things are not exactly the same as drawn on a TV. And then the authorities will have to either admit to the lie, or start a real war.

The problem is not what kind of choice the ruling elite will make, but that 7-8 years ago it got on the rails that led us to this brutal fork. Then it was necessary to decide - at the value level. But we, under an enthusiastic roar of a steam locomotive, slipped through this vital arrow, not even noticing.

If peace remains in the Caucasus, the local states are gradually unfolding to the west - simply because in Europe the standards of life is higher and we cannot offer them in return. If the war begins, they do not go gradually, but immediately - in an attempt to find protection. So they, perhaps, are even more convenient for them. Maybe that's why Saakashvili is so assertive? He prepared the information field perfectly, in conditions of hostilities, public opinion will be on his side. How can the Kremlin answer? The “vertical” may take out firepower to turn Georgia into dust, but obviously there will not be enough organizational, financial, personnel and sociocultural resources to keep it with you in peacetime. She, poor thing, does not know her Ingushetia how to hold.

Meanwhile, already Sochi beaches began to explode.

If the world is preserved, Zyazikov resigns. Because it is correct and rational from all points of view. In addition to the office, of course. Creeping confedelization of the national republics according to the Chechen model will continue: instead of the militaristic “vertical” - to pragmatic contractual relations. With a gradual reduction in the role and number of Moscow bureaucrats. It is possible that with the collapse of the state.

The authoritarian personnel elite in this situation is gradually out of work. In the struggle for self -preservation and for their vertical ideals, they will be forced to appeal to aggression. In the pathos style of Milosevich, Mugaba, Chavez and other demagogues: “Finally, the moment has come when our people should gather all their strength and adequately answer the call of enemies! Take a lot?! "Etc. etc.

If, thanks to their efforts, the war (that is, an attempt to play the leader again) will still take place, it will degenerate into the next bloody nonsense of the micro-Afghanistan. In the XXI century, holding the occupied territory under control is incredibly expensive. The United States in Iraq spend more than 2 billion a week. And the result is approximately like Zyazikov’s. But America - if again without snot - at least there is money to pay your own nonsense. However, it seems that even for her this pleasure becomes unacceptably expensive.

Therefore, I hope that there will be something intermediate in the Caucasus. Not Stalin, but rather Trotskyist: no war, no peace, but who surpasses anyone on the air. That is, the exact opposite of what this mournful text was started.

... Suppose we don’t give a damn about facts and real processes. Suppose we, as Maxim Shevchenko or Mikhail Leontyev, see exceptionally brilliant prospects and shining heights. Suppose we are ready to tear off the worthless Saakashvili into small shreds and send to the Mikoyanovsky meat processing plant ...

Yes, by the way, something familiar. Remember how in the Brezhnevsky USSR they received grocery orders by phone, and issued on TV? There, there was always a pink and went combines.

Now exactly the same with Putin's patriotism. A good, in general, series, but clearly goes to the finale. Have you noticed how Max Shevchenko recovered? Here, by golly, will be trampled soon.

PS

This text was written the day before the war. I especially do not want to change anything in it under the changed situation. Added only the interrogative sign in the title. Время «промежутка» и балансирования на краю кончилось, началось время кровавой молотьбы.

Следует ожидать взрыва патриотической истерики, а потом, по мере поступления «груза 200», очередного цикла державного вранья.

Если, опять же, без соплей, то Россия впервые с 80-го года открыто начала боевые действия на территории независимого государства. Нет сомнений, что это будет интерпретировано как агрессия. Саакашвили же, что про него ни говори, не сделал ничего нового по сравнению с тем, что Ельцин и Путин в свое время делали в Чечне. У него точно такая же аргументация, которая была у них. Только в его руках она сильнее, потому что налицо факт прямой силовой поддержки сепаратистов со стороны соседнего государства.

Столь же очевидно, что Россия не справилась с функцией миротворца. Вместо того чтобы развести конфликтующие стороны и сохранить мир, она выступила на стороне одной из них. Трудно назвать это успехом нашей внешней политики. Теперь у Украины и других бывших союзников на руках мощный козырь для скорейшего вступления в НАТО.

С точки зрения внутренней политики, понятно, что можно забыть про обещания снизить инфляцию — она будет больше, чем в прошлом году. Можно забыть — или отложить на годы — реформу армии и пенсионной системы. Следует ожидать резкого усиления военного лобби и перехвата им рычагов управления, снижения долгосрочных инвестиций, ограничения внутренних свобод. Под войну можно легко списать многие из ранее сделанных долгосрочных ошибок.

Путинская система ценностей, заимствованная из мифологического прошлого, закономерным образом привела к возрождению совка на новом витке развития. Совковая идеология, вопреки тому, что она сама про себя говорит, заточена не на улучшение жизни сограждан, а на изъятие у них ресурсов для решения «государевой задачи». Как правило, военной.

Конкуренцию «мирного сосуществования» она по определению проигрывает в силу неадекватной целевой установки: Держава для нее важнее Населения. Поэтому она всегда норовит перескочить к «немирной» конкуренции. Исходя из ложной установки, что в этой сфере у нее дело поставлено лучше. This is a mistake. Со всеми вытекающими последствиями в виде застоя, бессмысленного перемалывания людских и финансовых ресурсов, утечки кадров, деградации и последующего распада хозяйства.

Пока еще раз не расшибем голову об стенку, не остановимся.

Зато Зязиков сохранил свой пост на неопределенный срок. Не до него, Отечество в опасности! Можно быть спокойным и за политическую судьбу В.В. Путина на ближайшие годы. На переправе коней не меняют, верно? Значит, надо, чтобы страна всегда чувствовала себя на переправе. В великом походе за державные ценности. Ну а коли поход, то как же обойтись без Вождя?!

«За сим ура! Да здравствует Россия!» (А.К.Толстой)