How to be?

I would like to rejoice after the optimists that real politics has returned to our life. Therefore, we are tormented by the question: for whom to vote in the elections of the mayor of Moscow and whether to vote at all? I would have rejoiced if I was one hundred percent convinced that we were not bred, like suckers. But there is no one hundred percent confidence.

One hundred percent confidence is generally rare. Usually we still weigh the chances. The current elections in Moscow are unusual precisely because the chances of becoming a toy in Churov’s hands or really influence the alignment of political forces are approximately equal to each other. And there is no exact answer. That's why the torment!

On the one hand, we see an energetic election campaign of Alexei Navalny, unusual in the stagnant Putin's time. He is a tough critic of power - populist and rally, but critic. He walks under the verdict, which is about to enter into legal force. It seems that this is not a game, not a rally of a naive voter. There are no facts that Navalny - the “Kremlin Project” or is controlled from there. He promises honest elections and democratic procedures. True, who just did not promise them or promises them.

On the other hand, the liberal soul is yearning for one thought that it is necessary to vote for a person who organized the “Russian marches” and demanded to deport all the Georgians from Russia during the war with Georgia. Even more pushes away from the thought of voting for Navalny's aggressive manner of his supporters to blame skeptics of all mortal sins. This was very colorfully portrayed by Viktor Shenderovich, who considers all the opposing Putin's naval supporters. Well, yes, we know all this, we heard many times - the third is not given, do not sit out in the kitchen and who is not with us is against us. A beaten propaganda technique designed for uncertain people. I hope that Schenderovich has a temporary political blinding that does not allow us to see that the political forces in Russia are just more than two, and even more reasonable views on politics.

The question "What to do?" does not apply to Putinoids, Communists, Zhirinovites and just morons; He belongs to those who were disappointed in the “apple” and doubt Navalny. To these people (like me), Natella Boltyanskaya offers to vote not so much for people as for the political function that they carry out. This, no doubt, is reasonable if it were confident that, being elected, they would fulfill the promised. But there is no confidence again, and we can only weigh the chances!

The scales on which we weigh these chances, each has its own. The arguments that we put on the cups of these weights are typed on his own. The probability of error is great, since the chances, as I said, are fifty to fifty or so. Therefore, many until the last moment will not know what to do. I myself will remain with these people who think and doubt, and do not chop the splash, like some dashing agitator from the election headquarters of Alexei Navalny.

I will try to lay out the chances of cups.

About the election. This is, perhaps, the first elections over many years, when opposition candidates are not fake, but real ones. This seems to be the first election in the entire recent history, when there will be independent observers in all polling stations. Perhaps we will learn the genuine alignment of political preferences in Moscow. And this, finally, is the first elections, when we can foresee in advance: if there are falsifications, then public indignation and street protests are almost inevitable.

On the other cup of weight lies our confidence that Churov and the company will necessarily falsify the results of voting. Whatever the elections in Moscow end, they will not change the political system. That, apparently, the authorities themselves are most interested in the elections, but there is no need to expect anything good from it. That the electoral system is vicious, and eight applicants for the mayor’s chair did not pass the municipal filter. And those who allowed the authorities allowed and helped Sobyanin.

It seems to me that the arrow of Libra hung in the middle, and the winning from participating in the elections was compared with the winning from their boycott. There was only one small nuance: in the first case, a political gain, in the second - moral. If it was presidential or parliamentary elections in which the fate of the country is being decided, the arrow of my weights would definitely be inclined in favor of the boycott. But in the regional elections there is a great temptation to take a chance. The loss seems to be disaster, and the winning will not be fateful. However, some variety and testing of the strength of the system. Why not try?

Worse with candidates. There is practically no one to vote with a light heart. As I said, this is not about morons, but about Navalny and Mitrokhin. One is an unconditional nationalist, without a clear political platform and also on a hook of justice. The other is the functionary of a very discrediting party, also playing a migrant map.

It is difficult to choose from two unsuccessful candidates. It is difficult to disagree with Boris Vishnevsky when he criticizes Navalny. And it is also difficult to disagree with Viktor Shenderovich when he criticizes the “apple”. In criticism of each other, they are both right, other people's shortcomings determine for sure. Only his parties do not add advantage.

It only reassures that at the post of the Moscow mayor, each of the two proposed candidates will become so clear to the public that no one will have any doubt in the presidential election. They will have to reveal themselves in an urban scale. This would be, by the way, a good practice - regional elections as presidential primaries. But who to give your vote now?

On the one hand, the voice given to any of them increases the chances of the second round. Increases the chances of public resistance. Gives some chance to dismantle the authoritarian regime. At best, something will work out. At the worst-it will remain still. In the end, this is only Moscow and just a mayor.

On the other hand, there is a high probability that the voter will again become a toy in the clever hands of unclean politicians. The authorities use the elections exclusively to confirm their legitimacy. The opposition uses the elections only to promote a “single candidate”, and street protests, like the last time, will take a deadline to an empty tingle.

You can follow the old wise rule "refrain in doubt." Doubtful political win does not compensate for obvious moral costs. To vote for an inappropriate candidate only because it is necessary (another question: who needs it?) Is from the field of political masochism. This is an amateur. The idea that Navalny is a consolidating power of the opposition and the last hope for a happy future of Russia is based not so much on arguments and beliefs as on beliefs. Which, by the way, is very characteristic of Russian public policy.

For whom specifically to vote on September 8, you can, without bothering, decide so. Throw a coin. He will fall on the eagle - behind Navalny, on Road - for Mitrokhin. I introduced myself on September 8 at the polling station with a coin in my hands and realized that while she was falling, I would wait for the Tails to fall, and at heart hope that the coin would stand on the rib.

But since she will not stand on the rib, I probably will not throw it at all. It is a pity that there is no candidate who wants to vote for. It seems to have to refrain again.

Photo by ITAR-TASS/ Dmitry Fomichev