Trap of the 2000s

In the 2010s, Russia will have to solve the problem of "a country without a future"

No matter what anyone says, we have entered a new decade. Who dares to say that 2010 refers to zero? Zero is over. And it's time to think about what awaits us in the 2010s.

To understand where we are, it is important to see ourselves from the outside. And in this sense, the place occupied by Russian studies in Western university education can be considered a very useful indicator. This indicator does not reflect the opinion of individual professors or even corporations, it reflects the trends of mass demand. If the demand for country items is high, it means that popular opinion gives this country a significant place in the future of mankind. Such expectations will not necessarily come true, but the fact is that they are.

The maximum demand for Russian studies was observed in the 1980s. The superpower and evil empire was on the verge of historical change. The world was discovering "another" Russia - the poetry of the Silver Age, the truth about Stalinism. I looked with surprise at how the lava of totalitarianism churned with political passions. The old world was collapsing, and the arena of world history was in Moscow.

In the 1990s, the focus and optics of looking at Russia began to change. While everyone in the West and in the East (in the new post-socialist countries) was confident in the advantages of the market and democracy, it turned out that neither the West, nor even the East, really knew how one or the other could be “launched”. from scratch". How it works is more or less clear, but practically no one knew what the “correct” algorithm for installing the market and democracy was. If in the 1980s university interest in Russia was predominantly of a humanitarian nature, then in the 1990s we found ourselves in the focus of political science and economic discussions. This fully corresponded to the rapid pace of construction of the “wrong” market in Russia, as well as the unexpectedness and severity of the development of political processes.

By the 2000s, the situation had changed again. It suddenly turned out that ballistic missiles were not as important as it seemed in the era of bloc confrontations. The interest of mankind has focused on the possibilities of rapid economic growth, the ability of countries to quickly adapt, implement large projects and capture significant niches in the global division of labor. The heroes of the day were China and India. And the role of a probable enemy, which must be known by sight, was occupied by the Islamic world.

Despite the fact that it was customary in Russia to be proud of economic success and talk about the fact that the country is “rising from its knees,” in reality, interest in Russia in the world was rapidly falling. The future of Russia again looked rather vague, but now - what is most offensive - no one had any particular desire to peer into this fog. Oil, conflicts with neighbors, high-profile murders, the super-wealth of Russian oligarchs - this is the cloud of tags that surrounds the name "Russia" in the global information space.

Vladimir Putin's plan to re-enter the arena of world history on a white horse made of black gold, puffing on gas flames, failed. The current economic model in Russia causes undisguised skepticism. Its performance depends almost entirely on world oil prices. And the social order, which was formed on the foundation of this model, hinders attempts to change it. This situation is called an institutional trap.

The main trouble is not even that in Russia they systematically steal and take bribes. These are just circles on the water - the consequences of the main and key problem. The essence of this problem is that power and property have not been separated in Russia. The principle “whoever has the power, owns the property” continues to operate. And this principle turns out to be a critical obstacle to the development of the market and the competitive environment.

The results of this state of affairs were clearly visible during the crisis. Russia today is a country where you can earn good money, but you cannot store capital. It is safer to develop even your own business on loans, in extreme cases - on investments from offshore companies. But a country in which it is impossible to store capital is, in the economic sense, a "country without a future." This is the economic expression of the eternal sense of nebula and uncertainty of this future.

I have no doubt that another major crisis awaits Russia in the 2010s. It is not known when and how it will break into our lives, what forms it will take. It is only clear that its systemic prerequisites are evident. This crisis will be connected with the need to overcome the social archaism that today sets severe restrictions on what can and cannot be done in Russia. It sets the limits of our mobility, creativity, competitiveness, that is, everything that is just so valued by mankind and that determines in today's mass consciousness an interest in the country and faith in its future.