It's all about the date

Events in Ukraine are changing so rapidly that a compromise

hardly achievable at the end of April, now looms again on the horizon. Yushchenko and Yanukovych suddenly appeared on the front pages and on television screens hand in hand, smiling, facing each other, with joyful speeches that a sensational compromise had been reached, early elections would take place, the only question was when and how.

After the first shock, however, questions arose again: what does this really mean, a compromise or a clear victory for one side and a clear defeat for the other? And if this is a compromise, then what next? Now, we are told, the parties must agree on a date. And here the compromise for the “orange” is to postpone it for no more than a month: July is the deadline for “Our Ukraine” and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, they cannot retreat further, otherwise all the points gained during the heroic confrontation will be lost. For the “regionals”, an acceptable period is autumn: by autumn the “orange” will partially lose what they have acquired (and this is a lot: Yushchenko’s party almost doubled its rating - from 7 to 12%, the Tymoshenko Bloc, according to various estimates, from 20 to 26%, that is, in total they cover the solid 30% of the Party of Regions). Again, by the fall, some experts believe, the “regional” Cabinet of Ministers will have time to use the notorious “administrative resource”, improve life, raise salaries and payments, etc.

The latter is doubtful: summer is the season of vacations, not election campaigns; in the summer it is difficult with “administrative resources”, and even more difficult with turnout. Only pensioners without vacation and “politically accentuated” radicals of all colors are inclined to interrupt their vacation for a visit to the ballot box. And it cannot be said that they constitute the core electorate of the Party of Regions. Here the hastily buried communists, partly “Vitrenkovites” and partly “Tymoshenkoites,” can benefit most of all. The losers are definitely - and not only for this reason, but in principle, and this was clear from the very beginning - the socialists of Alexander Moroz.

Today, the question of the date is a question of another “compromise” or another tactical victory. Whose? Yushchenko has gained good momentum, and this inertia of the master of the situation is now working for him. And time works for the “regionals”. Delays and delays, two steps forward, three steps back, legal discussions and unexpected initiatives - like Moroz’s latest statement that the Socialist Party is supposedly ready to leave the coalition and make room for Our Ukraine. Meanwhile, time is running out, and since the achievement of the desired compromise, the negotiators have only managed to agree on the structure of the so-called compromise package, which implies some legal acts necessary for holding early elections, and the composition of the commission for the draft new version of the Constitution. This did not advance the situation much, and during the resulting time-out, all interested parties generously poured out various analyzes, forecasts and “leaks” to the public, the most fascinating of which was about the alleged “consensus” between the leaders of the two business elites Vitaly Gaiduk and Rinat Akhmetov.

The result of the supposed consensus should be an alliance between “Our Ukraine” and the “correct Donetsk”, a corresponding coalition in the future Verkhovna Rada and, as a consequence, the withdrawal of some of the current players from the game. Speaker Frost, for example. In general, there will be no more Moroz the politician, they say with one voice both on the right and on the left, Tymoshenko will remain in the opposition, which again will greatly oblige everyone, and finally, Yanukovych, who has lost face in the light of recent events, will ultimately lose in the ratings and go to second roles. The “regionals” will become more accommodating and will share their zones of influence with the “orange”. Brotherly or fair. All this seems to be true, and we have been hearing all this in one form or another since the election of the current (former) Verkhovna Rada. And why then was it necessary to fence the garden? Or was this a good reason to slap Yanukovych in the hopes of some kind of regrouping and redistribution of the masses? Which will now depend on the date of early elections. And the date is from another compromise, which is still not a compromise, but someone’s victory. Or someone's defeat.