One state

"Oh yes! My dad and I often talk about Russia at home, especially after this Putin appeared and events took place in Georgia,” smiles Megan McCain, who looks like suddenly plump Ksyusha Sobchak. She continues: “It’s really funny, because when dad warned about Putin during the primaries, people said he was stuck in the 80s. And when all this happened between Russia and Georgia, people immediately: “Oh, he keeps his finger on the pulse of national security!” Oh, sorry, international security. In general, I think it's great that he drove into all this like that!

With that, Meghan McCain made a brief stop last Tuesday at her father John McCain's campaign headquarters in downtown Tampa, Florida. After all, somehow you need to resist Barack Obama, who on the same morning gathered 10,000 people at the Tampa baseball stadium, and in the evening, at the stadium of neighboring Orlando, already 60,000 - however, along with Hillary Clinton. McCain was also in Florida - three days before and three days after Obama.

The election is less than two weeks away, and, as is often the case in American presidential elections, there are only five states left for candidates to fight for: Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Colorado. In the United States, victory in presidential elections is determined by victories in the states: you win in a particular state - that whole state is yours. And in the rest, except for these five, the voters, judging by the polls, have already decided. Of these, Florida is the largest: 17 million people. Meetings with voters in Tampa and Orlando were the beginning of Obama's campaign tour of Florida, but he suddenly broke loose and flew to Hawaii to visit his ill grandmother.

It was no coincidence that he flew away, and for the election campaign this may be not bad: the black candidate reminded everyone that he has a white grandmother and he loves her. Obama is the favorite of the race, and no matter what analysts on TV and ordinary people in opinion polls say, his race is the main topic of the election. It is discussed quietly, but quite distinctly and not at all as little as one might imagine, having heard a lot of jokes about American political correctness. Everyone is aware in one way or another: this is not about the Democrats, not about McCain, and not even about the worst crisis since the Great Depression, but about whether or not a person with dark skin can stand at the head of America.

“100% of blacks vote for Obama, not because he is a good candidate, but because he is a black candidate. And it's not called racism. What then should white people do? Vote for McCain? But for this they will be accused of racism!” - confessed to Newsweek a staff member of the US State Department, who stopped by last week to rest in Florida. Malanda Schmitz, campaigning for Obama, walks around the houses in Tampa's prosperous Bay of Tranquility: solid one-story houses, middle class, service workers. But even here, "maybe every twentieth" somehow makes it clear that it is difficult to vote for "... well, you understand."

Polls show Obama has the upper hand, but everyone says the so-called Bradley effect could work. Tom Bradley, a black candidate for governor of California in 1982, also led the polls - but lost the election. People said one thing, but at the last moment they could not overcome the psychological barrier and voted differently. “But today the Bradley effect can be counterbalanced by the mobile phone effect,” argues Bob Buckhorn. Now he owns a PR office in Tampa, and in the 90s he ran the election campaign of Bill Clinton in Florida. "Polls are traditionally conducted by landline phone numbers, and young people often have only mobile phones, and they are for Obama," he explains.

UNDER THE BLACK FLAG

Obama's rally in Tampa could confirm the worst fears of a white chauvinist. Most of the badges on the trays are Obama next to Martin Luther King with the caption "Legacy of Hope". For African Americans, Obama is not so much a presidential candidate as a civil rights activist. Entire classes of black kids were taken by bus to the baseball stadium, and not a single class of white kids. On the platform in the center of the field ran up and lined up in a row five strong chocolate guys, one broad-shouldered of the other. Obama spoke against their background. They were players from the local baseball team, the Tampa Bay Rays. Last year, the Stingrays were the worst team in the United States, and this year they were the best: the day before Obama arrived, they won the final.

“We need to make our education the best in the world! And for this we need to finally start paying our teachers normal salaries!” Obama said. "The question of this election is not how we live compared to what it was four years ago, but how we live compared to four weeks ago," Obama explained. "Whoa," the crowd agreed. “McCain said that if he talks about the economy, he will lose. He has already kept that promise! - continued the presidential candidate.

“If the bank received assistance from the state, we must insist that the bank does not evict the tenants, but begins negotiations with them,” the candidate said about how he would save Americans from the crisis. In Hillsboro County, which Tampa belongs to, banks have taken 2,400 homes from defaulters on mortgages in the last month alone, because borrowers became insolvent due to the crisis.

Obama's skin color is the main unofficial topic, but there are still two official ones that equally determine who will be the next president. It's national security and the economy. According to polls, Americans trust McCain more in security and counterterrorism matters, and Obama in economic matters. While the war in Georgia was at the center of the news, McCain's chances were growing. Now the main topic of conversation - the economic crisis, and Obama went into the lead. “McCain could have been saved, for example, by a major terrorist attack in the United States,” jokes darkly Ambler Moss, a former US diplomat and now a professor at the University of Miami.

CORRIDOR SYSTEM

In 2000, the election was decided by 300 votes, by which George W. Bush was ahead of Al Gore in Florida. "It's possible that the election will again be focused in this state," says political scientist Susan McManus. Florida is unlike the rest of America in that it looks like all the states at the same time. This is a communal apartment in America: until the middle of the twentieth century. the state stood half-empty, and then they went there from everywhere.

Florida's main battlefield is the "I-4 corridor," the strip along the highway between Tampa and Orlando. Farm Florida converges here, more like some black-and-white Alabama, and southern - bohemian, university, immigrant - reminiscent of California. And everywhere - pensioners who have come from all states to live out their days in the warmth. Not only does the Tampa-Orlando corridor have the most swing voters, it also has the most typical voters. Tampa is considered an ideal test market. “Retail chains are testing their new products here, and restaurants are opening pilot establishments,” says Bob Buckhorn. “We are a city remarkable for not standing out in any way,” ironically socialite Suzanne Weymouth, wife of the architect of the Louvre pyramid who settled here.

Obama came to Tampa for the specific purpose of getting his supporters to vote early. Throughout the first half of the campaign, the Democrats worked to get as many of their voters registered as possible. To vote in elections, it is not enough to be a US citizen, you must register. And two of Obama's most important target groups, the youth and the poor, are more likely than others to spit on civic duty.

Obama did half the job: millions of new voters appeared on the rolls, and by the fall in Florida, the Democrats had 4.4 million registered voters against 3.9 million for the Republicans.

"Obama's success in Florida depends on whether he can bring these new voters to the ballot boxes," says Bob Buckhorn. 600,000 registered African-American and 400,000 white and Hispanic youth voters did not turn out to vote in Florida in 2004, recalls Steve Scale, Obama's campaign manager in Florida, and about a million typical Obama voters were lost here last time. Obama will also have to compete for Hispanic immigrants in other states.

On the first day of early voting in "Little Havana," a Cuban neighborhood in Miami, an old Cuban immigrant, Martinez, died. The whole family gathered and baked a sweet cake. Before his death, the paralyzed Martinez asked to bring an absentee ballot - put a cross for McCain - and show him: he was afraid that the youth would deceive. The vote was taken into account when Martinez was already buried.

The youth did not intend to deceive. The whole extended family was for McCain. “We Cubans are Republicans, but only on one topic,” admits the son of the deceased, diplomat Hilarion Martinez. “On all social issues - health care, education - we are democrats. But we are Republicans because of Castro." The Cuban community has always been against the easing of sanctions against Cuba, and the Republicans offer to push Castro to the end. The ideological Cubans are relegated to the background by the so-called sausage emigrants from Guatemala and Nicaragua. Republicans hope for them: although Latin Americans are attracted by the social programs of the Democrats, they have traditional enmity with the black community.

In Florida, McCain is looking to the military, retirees and conservative evangelicals. The latter managed to charm vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin: "Over the past 15 years, I can't remember what else has inspired our conservatives so much," says Dennis Baxley, executive director of the Christian Coalition of Florida.

But with pensioners, not everything is smooth. On the one hand, they are not very close to the "changes" that Obama preaches. On the other hand, because of the crisis, they are losing their savings in pension funds. “I lost 20%,” Hellen Kennedy admits as workers at the Palazzo di Oro shelter in St. Petersburg, Florida pour her a fragrant soup. “I am 91 years old, I survived the Great Depression, and take my advice: save your money.” Kennedy has already voted. “It's my secret, for whom. For someone who is capable of taking decisive steps. "And who is it?" "Oh, that's [Democratic VP candidate] Joe Biden."

Obama may also have problems with the Jews. In 2004, 75% of Florida's Jewish voters voted for John Kerry. But many Democrats here admit that it is unlikely that Obama will reach these figures. It is difficult for Jews to ignore his middle name - Hussein. And their mobile phones continue to be bombarded with messages that Obama is a Muslim, and that Hamas and Ahmadinejad want him to win.

However, there is one rule that is stronger than all other electoral nuances. It has never been violated in the American elections: whoever can collect more sponsorship money during the campaign will become president. McCain agreed to public funding and the associated $84 million campaign cap. Obama agreed at first, but then saw how well fundraising was going and changed his mind. And only in September he raised $150 million, and in total - $600 million.

MAIN RULE

The oldest democracy has inherited the custom of voting on the first Tuesday in November, and this Tuesday is a normal working day. 200 years ago, when 6% of the population - a small number of wealthy white men - had the right to vote, this did not bother anyone. Now it hinders everyone, but above all the Democrats. On polling day, at lunchtime and after work, there are long queues outside polling stations that close at 7pm.

Early voting appeared only in the last elections. The newly registered voters are the apolitical youth and the irresponsible poor of the colored minorities. “It's hard to get them to come to the site, and long lines can scare them away,” says Buckhorn. Interest in the current elections is much higher than usual. Some local pollsters are predicting a turnout of 70% in Tampa and 90% in one county, Pinellas. This means that the queues will be even longer.

Referring to the Democratic voter roll from the last election, Malanda Schmitz walks around the houses in Tranquility Bay. For the first half hour, only dogs meet her. “I asked a friend and God gave me a Doberman Pinscher” is written on one of the doors. The tenth door is opened by an elderly sad African American Willy Moore, behind him is a sideboard with crystal. He's from Alabama and has already voted for Obama: “I'm old and I didn't grow up in a very good country. I would like my father, my grandfather, to find this day. And my grandmother too." Jim Domogarsky, a cheerful middle-aged Pole, lives in a house across the street: “I usually stand in line, but now, thanks, I’ll come and vote early.” Jim takes the memo with the addresses of the early voting stations. He thought for a long time and decided only when Obama introduced the "mature, reasonable" Biden, and McCain "that fool" Palin.

Blonde Megan McCain came to support the Republican headquarters, which is campaigning for their vote in absentia. Such tactics brought the Republicans victory in Florida in all past elections. Previously, only those who were leaving for the voting period and the sick voted in absentia, but now anyone can do it. You need to send a request to the "electoral committee", receive a ballot and send it by mail. Convenient for a respectable Republican voter, he will not stand in line. Ann Voss calls 300 people a day. “To say later: at least I did everything I could,” she says, somehow not very optimistic.

Last Tuesday, when Obama spoke at Tampa Stadium, was the first day of early voting. The Hillsborough County office in Tampa closed at five. A young cheerful Greek Vassilis Dukakis rushed to vote for Obama at half past five and stayed until the end. "31 people in half an hour!" - admired Vasilis. He is here because he remembers his pangs of conscience in 2000. “I didn't vote then, I was in New York on business. And then I found out that because of three hundred votes in our state, Bush won. How bad I felt!”

Dutch real estate appraiser Paul de Günther came to avoid standing in line later. He chose McCain. “Do you know when I chose McCain? Two months ago, during the war in Georgia. In such a world, I feel at ease with McCain." The last to come to the polling station was a black homeless man, George-Daniel Rubin. He also registered for the first time - by mailbox. Rubin voted for McCain because "he will help make life better and he has more social programs." George-Daniel Rubin doesn't have a TV, and there are no campaign posters or stickers on the street. And he just confused one candidate for another.

Material prepared with the participation of Ariana Campo-Flores