Future and Duma

In the spring, one of the leaders of "solidarity" Ilya Yashin allowed himself to fantasize how the Russian parliament could be freely and honestly chosen. According to his forecast, the first place (20-25%) would be taken by the "National Conservatives" that would advocate tightening migration legislation and traditional family values. On the left flank, there would be a division into two main trends, communist and socialist (social-democratic). The Communists would play nostalgia for the USSR, would go to demonstrations with portraits of Stalin and would receive up to 10%. The socialists would look more modern against their background, they would talk about left -wing values ​​in the European sense, cooperate with trade unions and gain about 20%. Democrats (liberals) are most likely also divided into two currents - right -conserving and left -handed. Even if in the first free elections they will perform a single block, in the future, the demarcation is inevitable. Both batches will receive 15%each. In this situation, socialists in parliament will almost certainly be blocked with left -wing liberals. For the stable majority, they will need a coalition either with the Communists or with the right liberals. However, conservative liberals may well find a common language with national conservatives if they abandon their most rigid slogans.

The alignment, as they say, meets European standards. It is significant that in his forecast, Yashin does not leave the place of the current “party in power” at all, obviously assuming that it will completely disintegrate along with the system of “simulation democracy” that has generated it and will leave the political arena. True, Yashin does not wonder how this system will be liquidated and real elections will be possible in the country.

A little later, the scenario of the transition to genuine democracy was proposed by another science fiction writer from the leadership of "solidarity" - Vladimir Kara -Murza. Unrestrained corruption, “anti -crisis” assistance to the approximate oligarchs, growing unemployment and inflation, lawlessness of security forces, an increase in the number of participants in the protest actions forces Medvedev’s environment to think about the Bishkek script. As a result, Medvedev dismisses Putin and announces the pardon of political prisoners. For several hours, Medvedev publicly swore the leaders of United Russia, governors, security officials, and heads of state media. Sources in the Investigative Committee report the preparatory investigation of the circumstances of the withdrawal of assets from Gazprom and the Sibneft sale transaction. The "technical" office of non -partisan professionals and representatives of the "liberal wing" of the bureaucracy is being formed, designed to bring the country to the elections to the new Duma. Without unnecessary discussions, the deputies of universities approve the cabinet and approve the bill on bringing legislation on elections to the state on December 31, 1999. At a closed meeting of the heads of federal television channels in the Kremlin, they announce the rejection of the practice of "stoplists". On the same evening, for the first time in many years, on Channel One, debates with the participation of leading Russian politicians, including those representing an unystemic opposition ...

The forecast of the results of the first free elections, which gives Kara-Murza, is somewhat different from Yashinsky. The first place (32%) is occupied by the Bloc of the supporters of Medvedev "New Republic", where, in addition to the former monsters, "part of the activists of the democratic opposition, who supported the presidential reform course." Since the levoliberal forces, united under the flag of Yabloko, act independently (and receive 12 %), it is easy to guess which part of the activists of the democratic opposition "Kara-Murza means. The movements of socialist and social democratic orientation receive 29%. His representation (Kara-Murza does not specify which ones) also receive separately the Communist Party, LDPR and extreme right nationalists.

Thus, the transition to democracy is carried out by the "sensible part of the ruling elite" with the support of "part of the activists of the democratic opposition." She occupies leading positions after the "transition to democracy." As they say, the whites begin and win. Kara -Murza directly calls the name Adolfo Suarez - the Frankist, who freed Spain from Frankism. True, in the first free elections in Spain, the prime minister of King Huan Carlos led the former Frankist phalanx who was by no means transformed into the respectable law -conservative “folk alliance”, and the block of the centrist, opposition francism of parties. And only after several years of the reign of the Center Bloc and a few years of the reign of the left (socialists), “updated” Francists returned to power.

However, analogies with Spain are attracted not only by Vladimir Kara-Murza. Andrei Piontkovsky repeatedly urged Medvedev to become Russian Juan Carlos. But he draws another plot.

The “court liberals” are convinced to remove Putin President’s Putin’s figures of those very ball-billiarders who took advantage of the authorities in the 90s to divide everything, and then pulled out Putin, believing that the “Chekists” would be for generous tips to serve as guards of their “social factories”. Now that the "Chekists" took the best pieces for themselves, these people want everything again to become "like a grandfather." And for the sake of this, they are ready to throw on the stakes of righteous folk anger and impartial financial inspections of the long -termed competitors that had long been overwhelmed - Chemez, Sichinins, Yakunins, Kovalchuk and other Rotenberg of the nearby circle.

Of course, these people will try to be limited to the apical coup and a light cosmetic repair of the system. They will try to limit themselves to the criticism of errors and abuses of the previous regime. The liquidation of the criminal company Gunvor, but not Millhouse. The disbandment of the Chemezovsky freak, but not "nanotechnologies". Stripping management in Gazprom and Rosneft, but not in Norilsk Nickel. Limit ourselves to careful bleating in the spirit of InSorov’s reports on the “impulse from above” in the direction of increasing the elements of adversarial and competitiveness both in the economy and in politics. ”

But then they will certainly remember that this backward society cannot be trusted to elect the authorities in free and fair elections. That in this reservation only authoritarian modernization by the enlightened progressors is possible. Because their entire modernization program comes down to first “extinguish the fire of the crisis and the corresponding mass discontent”, and then conduct the next series of “unpopular measures” (canceling housing, education, medicine, eviction of non -payers to “social ghetto”, massive bankruptcy of inefficient enterprises, raising retirement age).

But the revolution of the “oligarchic front” itself will have to be carried out under the slogans of political liberalization, democracy and freedom, which is better than lack of freedom. ” And this may not be able to control the explosion of social and political activity in an explosion of social and political activity, which will not be able to control the “impulses from above”. Freedom of speech and multi-party science will be restored in the country. For a long time we went out of free competition and deeply involved in the Putin’s power system of total theft and corruption, representatives of the elite will have to publicly answer rather unpleasant questions. In the unemployed Siberia and the Urals, their answers will cause vomiting and the desire to break someone's mouth ...

Let me add something from myself to the plot of Andrei Piontkovsky. I'm a science fiction writer too. When the “backward society” finally feels like a people, it will require replacing the “technical” cabinet of court liberals by the transition government representing real social forces. The next frontier of the retreat of the "liberal bureaucracy" is to share power with the "solid" leaders of the Duma opposition: after all, their own systemic ones, and they can negotiate for a long time. But it is the integration of this "old guard" into the system that the government will make such a government from the very beginning unpopular and weak. The real heroes of the day at that moment will be younger, not compromised by the proximity to the ruling elite and known for their uncompromising and figures. Just like Ilya Yashin. It will be their star hour. Perhaps even they at first will compose a majority in some parallel transition to the government of the Public "Council" and will lead him. At the same time, the influence of levoradic groups will grow rapidly, among which new working leaders from the regions will be advanced. But then - stop. Fork.

Obviously, the “liberal bureaucracy”, trying to maintain control of the situation, will maneuver between the leaders of the system parties, radical liberals and left -wing radicals, playing on the contradictions between them. We can literally imagine in which expressions the representatives of the updated presidential administration will persuade the young leaders of the “Council” to support their “reformation”. After all, you are so civilized and modern. You are practical, business, serious people (I give it to the old Russian). Not that these mossy apparatchiks from the Central Committee of the Communist Party or irresponsible demagogues and populists like Limonov and Udaltsov. You understand that you need to keep balance, that you need a compromise of the old and new ...

What will happen if the updated Surkov manages to stick them out, it is clear to everyone who knows the Russian history of the 20th century. February will end again on October. Further uninteresting. This is the historical death of the nation. I still hope that historical experience will be stronger than human weaknesses. That all the main opposition to the current force of power will be able to do without the "liberal wing" of the Putin bureaucracy. They will agree among themselves on joint measures to dismantle not only the authoritarian management system, but also the ruling oligarchy.

"The compromise between the old and the new" for the sake of a peaceful transition of power is possible and necessary. Another Russia should be generous. But Putin's kleptocracy will not receive any property guarantees. As for the guarantees of personal security, those representatives on which there are no blood will be offered amnesty and even equal electoral rights (I am against lustration). They promise the rest that the new government will not insist on their extradition. In any case, seriously. Unless, of course, they have time and they have where. But these are their problems. So, quite according to concepts.

Only then, this time the country will live to the Constituent Assembly. Well, my own forecast of its composition is this:

The right national conservatives of the most odious "hawks" of the former "United Russia", advocating for the traditional authoritarian power for Russia, strictly regulating the rights and freedoms of citizens, with the right part of the "Soviet traditionalists" and the Stalinists, the authors of all kinds of "oprinding and mobilization" projects, as well as frank neo-fascists-10-15%.

Moderate conservatives, led by "decent" figures of the former "United Russia" and a handful of right -wing liberals that joined them - 25-30%.

The left -barrel block with a part of the right liberals that did not go to an alliance with the former "party power" - 8-12%.

Moderate Social Democrats, focusing on society, with the "living" part of the "just"-5-7%.

Left national conservatives, combining the commitment to "traditional values" with "populism" (ideas for the control of power to society and the social responsibility of the elite), with the most part of the "Soviet traditionalists" from the Communist Party-15-20%.

Left-radical block from organizations of orthodox-Marxist in the regard (AKM, RKRP, both CPSU, etc.), including some part of the Communist Party of the Communist Party-20-25%.

Thus, the political landscape will be radically reformatted. Most of the previous structures are mixed, they are overlooking new ones. Perhaps a number of old organizations with bright brands and original ideology will remain. NBP and AVN, most likely, will strive to perform as part of a left -random block. The LDPR in any case will act on its own. Part of its asset can join the moderately legal block. Theoretically, the government of the Center Bloc (from moderate conservatives to moderate social democrats) will be possible but the left block (from left-wing liberals to radical Marxists) is more likely. Even part of the right -wing liberals is unlikely to go to a coalition with yesterday's Putin, especially for a coalition in which they will obviously be a younger partner. The line of striking in relation to the Putin regime will also make it impossible to perform a united front of all nationalist forces. In the same way, the union between the extreme right and moderate conservatives is excluded.

This scenario is most favorable for the country. And the liberal opposition today can increase its probability.