There is no ford in the smoke

Mikhail Kuznetsov is looking for an opportune moment to raise the issue of confidence with the President. Better - in front of two at once

Both elected governors of the Pskov region - both Yevgeny Mikhailov and Mikhail Kuznetsov - were constantly accompanied by rumors about a possible resignation at the initiative of the Kremlin. Like any rumors of this kind, they are being actively spread by the opposition, which in the Pskov region after December 2004 accidentally changed places with the authorities. And although in such rumors there is often more wishful thinking than reality, it is always useful to look closely at the smoke to see if fire is visible.

Historical justice requires noting the fact that Yevgeny Mikhailov, who is not particularly revered by the Kremlin, left his post not at the behest of a top official and his associates, but as a result of a difficult and competitive election campaign.

The position of Mikhail Kuznetsov, like all current governors, is significantly different - in any case (in the short term) they are threatened not with elections, but with appointments. And the key issue instead of the trust of the voters is the question of the trust of the voter. One. That one. At the same time, who will be this main voter in less than a year is still not clear.

In any case, relations with the Kremlin have become obscenely simple for the governors: one must be friends with the Kremlin, one must respect the Kremlin, it is dangerous to argue with the Kremlin.

Mikhail Kuznetsov's starting positions after his election were obviously vulnerable: he became the governor of Pskov against the will of the inhabitants of the Kremlin and the Viceroy of the First Person in St. Petersburg.

Already in 2005, it became noticeable, and in 2006 it became obvious that the biggest threat to M. Kuznetsov was his own politics and his own environment - the flow of complaints to Moscow from the Pskov region reached a historical peak since 1991. If we take into account that the ax in the new Pskov regional policy was used more often than all other political instruments, then real problems and risks were easily visible behind the emotions of the residents, who were stunned by the agility of the new authorities.

In a politically favorable environment, the ambitions of M. Kuznetsov's two main intra-system opponents within the region, Pskov Mayor Mikhail Khoronen and Secretary of the Regional Political Council of United Russia Alexei Sigutkin, intensified their ambitions. But their opposition to the local regime was mostly shadowy, and when they tried to fight publicly, the Kremlin put everyone in their place, simply demanding to stop fussing in the sandbox, which the Pskov politicians naively considered their own.

But the story didn't disappear. Practice shows that in order to start Operation Trust in any region, in addition to the first understandable condition - distrust of the incumbent governor - there must also be a second (no less important) one - a trusted applicant. And the ease of obtaining the highest post in the regional power system led to the fact that the ambitions of dozens of people began to reach the dimensions of illusions. And all these people go to the Kremlin and enter different gates, through different towers, talk in different buildings and get different answers from different people. And all of them (both those who enter the Kremlin and those who sit in it) say about themselves that they are Putin's people. And, of course, they carry out the very Plan of Putin. And they seem to know more about this plan than Putin. And in general, who is Putin? His term ends in less than a year. You can sit out too. Of course you can. If you figure out who's next. And Putin is silent. Because the moment he finally says it, he will lose power.

Against such an exciting background, the governors begin a kind of double game - they all swear to the current one, trying not to miss the future.

In the most difficult position are those whose chair is not durable - neither internal nor external.

It is known that at the end of 2006 the question of a new governor of the Pskov region was discussed in the Kremlin quite seriously, in a practical way. Business has reached conversations with participation of representatives of very large business. But literally in December, the “installation” changed. On the eve of the pre-election year, including on the eve of the regional elections, M. Kuznetsov, who had worked for two years, was given a chance to show what he is capable of as an electoral machine. It was a direct test task - can you? And at any cost - can you? And so that through the knee - can you?

He did, and although observers note a roughly 10% difference between United Russia's pre-election rating and its actual result (in favor of the latter, of course), the Kremlin does not ask questions - how? They know only one question - how much? And there are numbers that suit them. And how they are made - in the Kremlin they know no worse than in Pskov. Still, such campaigns are just around the corner: 2000, 2003, 2004 ...

By raising United Russia's rating to statistically incredible heights, the governor is saving not the skin of the Moscow "bear" or even the skins of the local "cubs", but his own. The Kremlin is no longer embarrassed to speak about this in plain text. Which leads to a "chain reaction" in the regions.

After March 11, 2007, when United Russia received more than it dreamed of in the Pskov region, Mikhail Kuznetsov's entourage made an attempt to convert the result obtained in a known way into a long-awaited trust and reassignment. It seemed that the achieved "success" is a kind of "key" to the Kremlin. But, as we have already mentioned, the Kremlin has many towers and many gates. And each of them has its own beholder.

The April attempt to raise the issue of trust was unsuccessful. The question was not considered. But they did not initiate.

This led the entourage of Mikhail Kuznetsov into a very strong unrest. All the myths about the intrigues of competitors returned to calm heads.

And appeared on May 14 in the magazine “Expert. Severo-Zapad” a routine interview with Presidential envoy Ilya Klebanov, who never complained about Mikhail Kuznetsov, with sharp assessments of the situation in the Pskov region (said, apparently, in the context of a general description of affairs in the district) [ 1 ], brought the Pskov administration to a uniform state hysteria and panic. Probably, the gentlemen thought that the end crept up unnoticed.

But this was not the end.

The other day it became known that the leadership of the regional "United Russia" (and Mikhail Kuznetsov, we recall, has already been appointed head of the "bears" election campaign in the Pskov region) may be tasked with obtaining more than 60% of the votes in the 2007 parliamentary elections - that is, “Earn” as much as 2 deputy mandates from one region.

How such a phenomenal result can be achieved can not be explained. One gets the impression that in some offices in the Pskov region they are already "knocking out" the tables on the results of the voting in December 2007. The rest will be a matter of "technique".

In the presence of such a "responsible task" of the governor, who has demonstrated his readiness to go "to the end", it hardly makes sense to deprive him of his chair and handset before the elections. The most convenient thing is to beckon him with the old bait - but in a new perspective.

M. Kuznetsov showed that he understands the situation in a recent interview with the Rosbalt news agency, curated by failed Pskov senator Natalia Cherkesova. On June 20, in an interview with Rosbalt, the Pskov governor answered a direct question from a journalist: “Will you re-approve?” said, "Yes, when the time is right." Not failing at the same time, in accordance with fashion, to scold the “costs of the electoral procedure”, which, in the mouth of Mikhail Kuznetsov, looks at least ambiguous. It seems that the whole interview was given for the sake of one phrase in conclusion.

Well-informed sources say that if the decision on trust/no trust in M. Kuznetsov is not made before September (and this is already unlikely), then there will be two options left. The first is to sit out Putin. The option is good for everyone, except for one thing: with this approach, fate will be in the hands of a person whose behavior in the presidency and the ambitions of whose environment is now impossible to calculate.

The second option is to find a "gap" between the parliamentary and presidential elections and try, by manipulating the "outstanding results of United Russia" in the Pskov region, to convert the hard and thankless staff work into a new term of office - when the outgoing president has nothing to punish, but the incoming - there is no need. After all, there will be major elections ahead, in which a dedicated political clientele on the ground will be even more needed than in the elections of "androids" for pressing buttons on Okhotny Ryad.

Therefore, the political prospects of Mikhail Kuznetsov are quite good - as good as the political system itself, which can force a person who has received a position as a result of direct voting by citizens to do everything to ensure that the opinion of these citizens is taken into account in life and in elections to a minimum extent.

Konstantin Minaev.

1 See: M. Kiselev. Shoot? // "PG", No. 20 (339) of May 23-29, 2007