Crisis and GKI

The bright memory of the collateral auctions is dedicated to

The credit crisis is dangerous in that it stops the movement of money along the bloody vessels of the economy. In the era of credit crisis in the market there is no most important - trust, and money ceases to move from those who have it to those who can use them as efficiently as possible. An increase in the interest rate in such conditions is no longer able to bring the money market to balance - the demand for a loan still exceeds its offer. The system loses its liquidity, “dry” (Liquid is a liquid). Not only investments stop, but also the normal operation of the economic system, unthinkable without money.

Liquidity deficit eliminates a real monetary assessment of any values, including the money itself. But if all other assets, without such an assessment, gradually turn into dust, then the money itself, like ordinary water in an endless desert, becomes truly priceless. The authorities are received by the one who has money. Almost unlimited power is received by the one who “makes” money and distributes it. It is now the market, it dictates prices to everything else and everything else.

Below, for simplicity, we will call it the main credit source (or just GKI).

In Russia, it all starts with a beautiful patriotic slogan. We will not allow the transition of control over Russian companies to foreign creditors! We will help the domestic business pay off a bonded external debt! We refinance it due to internal sources! If Cuba is the island of Freedom, then Russia is the mainland of financial stability!

Further, within the framework of the GKI developed, so many billion dollars of gold and foreign exchange reserves are allocated to support a certain segment of the financial sector, and the most interesting begins. Three options for unfolding anti -crisis measures are visible on the move.

Option No. 1. Even before the deadline for repayment of the company's external debt, he (or appropriate derivatives) is slowly buying up with a fair discount on the secondary market for an offshore structure (to reduce market quotes and increase the efficiency of the operation, it is worthwhile to dissolve rumors about the financial difficulties of the company and its difficult relations with the authorities).

After that, the GKA takes a loan for the indicated patriotic goals. The minimum dollar value of Libor+5%recorded in the law, i.e. About 8% per annum, in the current conditions, is simply ridiculous, and the maximum, apparently, will not differ from it very much (for reference: foreign exchange bonds of most Russian banks and corporations are traded within 15-30% per annum). Obligations to the bought up debt offshore are already repaid, of course, at the face value.

As a result: at the expense of the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves, a risk -free profit is extracted, which, together with the capital itself, is completely legally exported abroad. The proportions of the division of this profit are silent, adult uncles from the Civil Code of the GKI know better.

However, option No. 1 is obviously imperfect.

Firstly, he assumes that the current owners of the Russian company are able to tighten the liquidity of the debt from somewhere. In the current conditions, this is a fairly strong assumption.

Secondly, he does not use the entire charms of the provisions of the Civil Procedure Code as a lender of the last (and at the same time higher) instance.

Therefore, as the crisis phenomena and drying out other than state sources are tightened, option No. 1 will gradually flow into option No. 2:

Do you need money to buy/pay off the company's obligations? Great! It’s easy to get the necessary funds, but for this you just need to-to retrain control over the company or something else good. There is no, of course, not to the state (it, as even children, is an ineffective owner), but to individuals with fair experience in the relevant field of activity. Do you say control is much more expensive? Well, go tomorrow. (In the end, this is much more humane than to put in prison for the same. As they like to say now in the same liberal party, “freedom is better than a lack of freedom”).

Another focus, of course, is illegal: according to the newly adopted law, one of the units of the Civil Procedure Code was actually granted the right to receive all other loans to its borrowers (even the all -powerful IMFs do not have such opportunities in relations with clients). Thus, the first loan received from the GKA can completely exclude the appearance of any other sources of financing. Option No. 2 is inevitable as new victories of United Russia.

As a result: the same as according to option No. 1, but already with a new property structure. Despite all the costs, an effective owner finally appears, and the development of the country along the market path becomes irreversible again!

And finally, there is option No. 3 - a logical continuation No. 1 and No. 2. So, money is already abroad, debts to the City Council on the terms and established, hang on organizations that satisfy the requirements established by it (this may be offshore, this does not contradict the law at all!). But there is still the most reliable guarantee in the world - monitoring the actions of the Civil Procedure Code from the County Chamber of the City Code!

Strictly speaking, it is unlikely that anything interferes with the happy beneficiaries of the City Corpcuses on the New Year's Eve of 2010 to overfulfill the plan-and not to extinguish them (after the new, effective private owner reincarnated somewhere else). In the end, this is even great: there will be a reason for the new anti -oligarchic campaign against the old oligarchs. Folk tears will finally lead them out!

The result is clear. The same as in options No. 1 and No. 2, only much better. “Why do you need so much money? You will die soon, you are old. You don’t need money at all. ”

All other GKI operations: special deposits to support liquidity; subordinated loans on annual rates that do not repel half -year inflation; ransom for cheap quality assets of problematic banks and a fine of poor -quality assets of unprofitable banks; placement of reserves in reliable domestic financial instruments instead of toxic enemy; Believed and unlimited lending to banks; guaranteeing the repayment of interbank loans; Just a multi -billion dollar “financial market support”, etc. etc. - The essence is only unpretentious variations of the three schemes described above.

Against this background, the highest chic, as they say, “with a thicket”: on the go, repent the West to errors, instructing how he needs correctly, socially and transparently organize the financial sector and life in general. So that everything is straight, like ours, without problems. Five principles, you know, five “and” and yours are not.

We summarize. In our recent history, an episode has already taken place when

1) from the most liberal and patriotic considerations

2) as a result of an honest agreement of a group of individuals with well -known experience

3) at the expense of taxpayers

4) based on market mechanisms

A large effective private owner was formed in the country.

If anyone forgot, this episode was called "collateral auctions." I must say that that scheme in comparison with the present is the purest delight of the purest sample.

But what about the crisis? - You ask.

And what about the crisis? Thanks to him.

PS All of the above is the fruit of the author’s indefatigable fantasy and all (unlikely, however) coincidences with real persons, events or organizations are extremely random.