Translated material
There is no limit to perfection
The 2008-2010 budget will be adjusted for the second time since the beginning of the year
On June 11, the State Duma will consider new amendments to the three-year budget for 2008-2010 - revenues and expenses will once again increase . Moreover, there was more money in the treasury than the recipients of budget funds will be able to absorb: in the next three years the treasury will become richer, and the 2008 budget surplus will increase 26 times. Moreover, the excess of revenues over expenses will not disappear in 2010, as the Ministry of Finance previously predicted.In accordance with the new bill, federal budget revenues in 2008 will amount to 8.96 trillion rubles, of which oil and gas revenues will amount to 4.23 trillion rubles. Compared to previously planned income, this is 908.7 billion more. Expenses also increased, but much less - only 120.4 billion: from 6.901 trillion rubles. up to 7.021 trillion. However, budget expenditures, which will be used to increase pensions and benefits for public sector employees, will grow much more significantly - by 287.8 billion rubles. The rest of the money will be found through redistribution and savings of budgetary allocations in the current year, as well as through a reduction in budgetary funds allocated to the Investment Fund.
These are not the first amendments to the 2008-2010 budget. Already in February of this year, it was necessary to significantly change the figures approved in September 2007 (at the request of then-President Vladimir Putin, in connection with the upcoming Duma and presidential elections, the budget was approved in record time). In February of this year, 2008 budget revenues increased by 1.412 trillion rubles, expenses by 331 billion, and the surplus increased 15 times - from 74 billion to 1.155 trillion rubles. The financial plans for 2009-2010 were also corrected.
It would seem that everything is fine: incomes are growing, they do not spare expenses, they are not afraid of inflation - Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin personally assured that this will not affect the rise in prices, at least for the worse. The only bad thing is that in nine months - from September 2007 to June 2008 - Russia's budget has changed beyond recognition. Revenues in 2008 as a result of all amendments should increase by a third - from 6.64 to 8.96 trillion rubles, expenses are not so significant, but still from 6.57 to 7.02 trillion rubles. The surplus shot up incredibly - from 74 billion rubles. up to 1.94 trillion - 26 times! A nest egg for the future or “extra” money? Apparently, the government itself has not fully figured it out.
This means that we may face another emergency and controversial move. Inflation jump or GDP growth? Both options are possible.
Another big problem that became obvious during the transition to long-term planning: we do not know how to do this. Although they “concocted” a three-year plan, they missed the mark, as a result, all the figures had to be revised more than once, and it is likely that the current amendments will not be the last. It turns out that all the benefits of three- and fifteen-year budgets are negated by their poor quality of execution. It’s good that so far the mistakes are for the better.
The government also adjusted the 2009-2010 budgets for the second time. Revenues will have to increase: in 2009 by 816.1 billion rubles, to 9.51 trillion, in 2010 - by 1.09 trillion, to 10.4 trillion rubles. Moreover, if this year a significant part of the previously unplanned budget revenues is expected to come from the growth of oil and gas revenues, they will grow by 778.3 billion (others by 130.4), then an increasingly large part of the growth will come from non-oil and gas revenues. In 2009, the increase in the budget due to oil revenues will amount to 531.7 billion, other income will increase by 284.4 billion, in 2010, respectively, plus 639.9 billion and 354.3 billion rubles. The government is counting on the growth of the innovative economy, taking into account that in general oil and gas revenues will fall - in 2008 they will amount to 4.25 trillion rubles, in 2009 - 3.640 trillion rubles, in 2010 - 3.63 trillion rubles
But expenses will not suffer from this; for 2009-2010 they were also increased: in 2009 - by 463.9 billion rubles, to 8.75 trillion, in 2010 - by 632.7 billion rubles, up to 9.66 trillion. It is quite obvious that revenues will grow much faster than expenses, so the budget surplus, which in the very first version of the financial plan of 2008-2010 disappeared completely by the end of the period, will remain. In 2009 it will amount to 760 billion rubles, in 2010 - 740 billion. But it is obvious that plans for 2009-2010 will have to be revised more than once. The main thing is not for the worse.