Translated material
Putin went into a retreat?
The State Duma offers dear Russians the recognition of the "DPR"/"LPR" for their own money. Will they agree to sacrifice their 13th salaries for this happiness? And also: how is the Ukrainian army preparing to repel the possible attack of the Russian? And what will be motivated by Russian if it is forced to enter Ukraine? "For Putin?" And what does the statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation mean that they load in the echelons and send a part of the troops back without waiting for the formal end of the exercise? Is this Putin really shows that he is ready to retreat? Or lulls the vigilance of "partners" in negotiations that he still intends to lead with them?
On the current military-political agenda-retired lieutenant General Igor Romanenko and analyst of the Carnegie Foundation Andrei Kolesnikov .
The program "Faces to the event" Elena Rykovtseva is conducting.
Video version of the program
Elena Rykovtseva: Hello, respected spectators and listeners, and especially those spectators and listeners who have to pay from their own pockets with their own money for all that the State Duma drew today! And she drew to admit the infamous "DPR" and "LPR". All that they proposed further, we will let you listen.
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0:00 0:00:28 Elena Rykovtseva: Andrey Kolesnikov , a political analyst with us. If you were paid the 13th salary-this is already some kind of archaic, this applies to state employees-but you would give it to the recognition of the "DPR" and "LPR", would you pay from your pocket for such a feat from the State Duma?
Andrei Kolesnikov: I think the Russian people, mentioned in this speech, are not going to give anyone their 13th salary at all. No one feels them with their citizens. Judging by the surveys of sociologists, a significant part of the population is ready to recognize the independence of these "republics", but this does not mean to give the 13th salary. On the contrary, let them be independent, for the sake of God, but not part of Russia, because in this case would have to be given to them the 13th salary. Although, in fact, they give, part of the taxes of Russian taxpayers are going on to ensure these "citizens of Russia": they participate in our elections, contrary to the Minsk agreements. This seems to me a violation of the Minsk process.
Of course, there is no such readiness. In vain, deputies who are not represented by practically no one (unfortunately, our parliamentary system is arranged), refer here to a certain people. "People" is generally an abstract concept: here he gets up, so large, terrible, and gives the entire 13th salary ...
Part of the population is ready to recognize the independence of the "republics", but this does not mean to give the 13th salary
Elena Rykovtseva: Igor Romanenko , retired lieutenant general, former deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Do you think the current declaration of the State Duma (this is just a declaration - an offer to the President of the Russian Federation to recognize these "republics", formations on the body of Ukraine) - is this to the world, or is it for war? There are people who say-to the world: now the Russian army will finally come there, and everything will be fine, quietly, like in the Crimea.
Igor Romanenko: The grounds will still be illegal, as in the Crimea. However, this will be the last nail in the coffin of the Minsk process, since by aggregate everything that could be violated in order not to implement it, the Russian Federation has already implemented in the field of political, economic, social, participation in the elections and everything else. Now, if this is approved by the President of the Russian Federation, the process of the implementation of Minsk must be completed on this. Even if the Russian army enters and the truce is established, it will also be possible to appeal to the fact that Putin all the time agreed that international forces could stand on the demarcation line. There is still no difference for us that the Russians call separatists, but if two corps officially entered the Southern Military District, absolutely controlled, subordinate structures of the Russian armed forces, then the international community does not recognize them. Here the question is that there are no shelling further: maybe it will be necessary to put the international armed forces on the distinction line and go to the regime of frozen conflict, that is, there will be not peace, but a truce until the political situation in Russia itself changes.
Elena Rykovtseva: That is, the same wall will arise. Remember, there were plans for how to resolve it when the Minsk agreements are impossible in a number of points (in terms of amnesty, in terms of non -fogging the Ukrainian Constitution): build a wall and freeze. Most likely, it will come to the very option, which from the very beginning was mentioned by some forces in Ukraine too.
Igor Romanenko: The head of the National Security Council, Mr. Danilov, spoke of the development of several plans, and one of them was a plan of this order. As an example, the situation was given with the northern Cyprus. Maybe it will be temporarily so. The only thing is that the Russian armed forces are officially legalized there, then shells may continue. So that this is not the case, you can have an international contingent there, and then it will be close to the fact that at least there will be no murders, deaths. Otherwise, the situation will remain the same for us: it was and remains relevant to the return of lands and Ordlo, and Crimea to the sovereign Ukraine.
Elena Rykovtseva: I just remember that while there were talk about inviting the interdarment line of the international contingent, Russia has always torpedoed this. Maybe in a new situation it will allow them to stand on this line.
If Russian armed forces are legalized there, shells may continue
Andrei, your colleague Leonid Gozman, the person with whom you have been friends for many years, in the same studio, not so long ago said that maybe this will be a way out. The Duma will vote for this recognition, Putin will sign it, and this will be for him thereby preserving his face in this whole story: he must somehow be cut out of the situation into which he himself drove himself with his ultimatums.
Andrey Kolesnikov: Maybe. I think that the decision on this subject has not yet been made, because in parallel there is an attempt to reanimate the Minsk process in conflict with this. The Duma (naturally, not by itself, but in full agreement with the presidential administration) writes this appeal to the president and votes for a more stringent procedural decision: we do not consult with the Foreign Ministry, as the United Russia allegedly proposed, but we immediately go to the president.
In parallel, there is a balancing on the verge of a real “hot” war, when everyone curls around Putin, like bees around honey, persuades him not to take the last step, and he shows them skeptically and says: will you talk to me in essence? All advisers like Lavrov say: there is still a chance; Of course, heavy partners, but suddenly they will speak ... "Well, good, good," says Putin, as in the transcript of yesterday's conversation.
Yes, maybe this is some solution to the problem-the transformation of these territories into Abkhazia and South Ossetia for many years. Crimea also has a specific status: the international community perceives it in one way, Russia is different. Accordingly, maybe this can replace the war. But this can become, on the contrary, a prelude to the "hot" war: troops invited by independent figures are nominated there.
Elena Rykovtseva: Now without hiding, without claiming that "we are not there": we are here.
Andrei Kolesnikov: The actual promotion takes place, the Russian border shifts - again, in the eyes of Russia, and not in the eyes of the international community, because all these territories will never be recognized as anyone except South Ossetia, as is happening now.
The people get up, so big, scary, and gives the entire 13th salaryElena Rykovtseva: So this is a stick about the two ends, and it is not known which end is sharper.
Igor Alexandrovich, I know that you are not watching Russian talk shows, but I want to demonstrate one fragment for you specifically, because it has a concentrate of all the logic that Russian propagandists bring down on opponents. They invite them to participate in their air on Skype of an American who stayed in Kyiv, did not go anywhere with his compatriots. It would seem that this is a great example of the fact that there are people who are not afraid of their own American propaganda. But suddenly this American man begins to say: no, you know, it is still anxious here because of such an accumulation of Russian troops on the border ... Apparently, the programs of the scriptwriters did not enter the program to reflect on these topics, and the host brilliantly, as always, shouted his mouth. And I will ask you just on the topic that she raises in her speech.
Elena Rykovtseva: It's just fine: "Take care of yourself, all the best!" Or in such cases, an advertising pause follows, after which a person who was knitting something no longer appears in the frame.
About the troops. This is such an excuse of Lavrov, and Putin, and all leading talk shows that this is our territory; Maria Zakharova also loves to repeat: we are on his territory. But how to decipher what she was talking about Ukrainian troops, concentrated in the same volume on the Russian-Ukrainian border?
Igor Romanenko: I know the rules for conducting these shows. For six months they beg me for six months, for various reasons I still agree, but when they comment on my statements in Ukraine about these circumstances, then the behavior is close to what was now with this American representative. There is no need to be offended by propagandists - this is an informational enemy. The bright representative of this is Mrs. Skabeeva.
Regarding that mantra of Russian propaganda that we are on our territory: what, we attacked the Crimea from someone else's territory? How did they act in Transnistria, in Georgia, in Ukraine? And in Syria, far from the borders of Russia? I really hope (and not only me) that many personalities who arranged all this will be involved in court. Now modern weapons, and the Russian Federation has struck Syria from its territory, from the Caspian Sea, so this is an argument for the domestic consumption of people who are far from knowledge about the possibilities of modern weapons, but close to Russian propaganda.
You do not have to be offended by propagandists - this is an information enemy
Elena Rykovtseva: Today we saw a cheerful plot on the Ukrainian channel "1+1", in the news of TSN, about how the Ukrainian army on the border with these unrecognized republics, in the territory of its Ukrainian Donbass, masters military equipment received from abroad. A man in a mask explained to the correspondent, a pretty woman with a microphone, how they are going to operate a specific device associated with rockets. What is meant when they say that the Ukrainian army concentrated a similar number of military on Russian borders? Is it really nonsense or is it not quite nonsense? Where is this concentration of Ukrainian troops in the same volume as Russian?
Igor Romanenko: Our Armed Forces are now more than 261 thousand. By quantity, this will look more than what is concentrated in the north, east and south from the side of not only the Russian Federation: there is Crimea, there is even a contingent in Transnistria. If we take the total number, then our troops are even more. However, if we evaluate the balance of power from a military point of view, then we must take military potentials. Unlike the Ukrainian leadership, Putin used more than 20 years to intensify the process of weapons of the RF Armed Forces with modern weapons. Therefore, where we lag behind in some technological moments related to modern weapons, we have to solve these issues.
Moreover, last year we adopted a law on national resistance, referring to this circumstance in the relations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, and came to the fact that our defense should have the character of folk. For this, since January of this year, a separate clan of the troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine under the name "Territorial Defense" has been created and is being formed. There is a transition to popular defense. It is bad that it was done late, but it’s good that they started. It is clear that it is not enough to arm citizens, they must also be trained, and this is not a quick process, but it is happening with us. As a result, it should be hundreds of thousands of people, as if more than a million. Here is such a strategic approach in our state.
Elena Rykovtseva: That is, we can say that Ukraine for defensive purposes really pulls a larger number of troops to the borders, which is usually there?
Igor Romanenko: No, it does not pull away. Troops of territorial defense are 29 brigades, they are territorially associated with regions, with large cities. These troops will be used if the enemy begins to advance, they are designed to protect and defend important infrastructure facilities in these territories.
Elena Rykovtseva: The difference is that these are places of their constant deployment, and those 130 thousand that foreign colleagues ask Putin to move back, dilute in their parts - is this not a constant deployment at all?
In Ukraine, there is a transition to popular defense
Igor Romanenko: We also have troops that are concentrated in the east in the confrontation of the two corps allegedly Ordlo (in fact, both of these corps are part of the Southern District of the Russian Armed Forces) - this is the composition that is born. There are places of constant deployment of these parts in Ukraine, for a certain time they start there, then change. Thus, the experience of organizing combat operations is gained. So we are replenished with a mobilization resource, because so far in the places of permanent deployment, in the areas of conduct of military operations, the urgent service is not involved in us.
Andrey Kolesnikov: As I understand it, it is much less. Such a long and impressive concentration, in confirmation of the still diplomatic steps, is, of course, a threat. You can tell these tales to yourself and even the Russian population, and it will even pretend that it will accept this: it is also a property of public consciousness - to accept what the native government says. "We just move troops back and forth, it does not matter." The teachings with the Belarusians had the meaning of the same threat, but since these are the teachings, at any moment we can say: the teachings are completed, we will leave from there (which, in fact, happened yesterday, when Shoigu met with Putin). Everyone knows that on February 20 they should end. But this did not relax people, since everyone knew that on February 20 the Olympics would end, after which the invasion was promised. On February 20, the exercises end - they have learned, now you can go into battle. This, of course, does not calm anyone, except for some people who are ready to accept everything that is said by the authorities in the person of propagandists and responsible persons.
Elena Rykovtseva: We will now see the plot about everything that has happened over the past 24 hours. Just in this plot there will be a moment that Igor Konashenkov, a well-known Rupor of the Ministry of Defense, says: we are already taking someone away.
Elena Rykovtseva: Should we rejoice at the report that parts of the southern and Western districts are loaded into echelons, are they returning? By the way, it is not very clear from what exercises: I am not sure that they took part precisely in Belarusian teachings. Nevertheless, should we somehow inspire us that they are sent home?
Igor Romanenko: Maybe this inspires someone. However, even Bismarck, in my opinion, said that a document signed with Russia ... I do not want to say on the air, what it is and how to use it. Very close in history, we know the Budapest memorandum - for nuclear weapons given to Ukraine.
We, citizens of Ukraine, will show unity and determination in preparation for the defense of our state from aggression
Once again, I want to remind you how it was around Crimea, when the head of the Russian Federation (he is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief) said that these are provocateurs-correspondents who dared to raise the question of some kind of hostility between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, this is unacceptable and so on. As a result, all this turned out first by the occupation of Crimea, and then the war in the east of our state. The question is not in our skepticism about communicating with representatives of Russia, but in the fact that we have our own intelligence, we share intelligence data with our allies, we present how realistic it is. The fact that General Boyko reported on the withdrawal of individual units is a drop in the sea, this does not reflect the general condition of the situation around our borders in the north, east and south.
Elena Rykovtseva: From a military point of view, the situation around your borders you probably think anxious. How do you themselves regard this date - February 16, which is not assigning to attack not the Russian government, but the foreign press and politicians?
Igor Romanenko: This is very important for our state and society, we will really celebrate this as a unity day . We, citizens of Ukraine, show each other, as well as the world community, unity and determination in preparation for the defense of our state from aggression, which is possible by the Russian Federation.
Elena Rykovtseva: How do you still assess the probability of this aggression?
Igor Romanenko: I think she should not begin tomorrow. However, in the future, its probability is not excluded - this must be borne in mind. In this regard, we have no illusions, we are preparing for this.
Elena Rykovtseva: We look at the last day, because this meeting was a little alarmed by Putin separately with Lavrov, separately with Shoigu. Сейчас они решат, что же со всем этим делать, примут то самое решение. Плюс военные сводки, сводки с учений: одна сторона осваивает вооружение, которое ей прислали с Запада, вторая сторона проводит учения. Что мы должны сейчас эмоционально чувствовать – облегчение или все-таки возрастание тревоги?
Андрей Колесников: Все-таки ситуация немножко разрядилась, поэтому мы должны чувствовать облегчение, имея при этом в виду, что не следует расслабляться, так как с российской стороны возможны любые шаги, любые обиды на любые высказывания, любой предлог. Никто не снимал с повестки дня то, о чем говорил Джейк Салливан, – провокация военных действий и вследствие этого вторжение. Это абсолютно понятная технология, она использовалась и будет использоваться. Так вторглись в 1939 году в Финляндию , все эти сталинско-молотовские штучки давно известны.
Никто не снимал с повестки дня то, о чем говорил Джейк Салливан, – провокация военных действий и вследствие этого вторжение
Тем не менее была специально показана встреча с двумя главными, самыми популярными защищающими нас министрами. Они сказали: надо помягче с ними со всеми. Путин неохотно, но соглашался, выслушав, не вынеся свой вердикт, что важно: все-таки нужно немножко держать в напряжении. Пропаганда все последние дни кричит: ну, это же истерика, которая специально нагнетается средствами массовой информации, никто ни на кого не нападает: видите, даже украинцы ведут себя спокойнее, чем те же самые американцы!
Елена Рыковцева: Там есть еще одно отдельное персональное пропагандистское оружие в виде Маргариты Симоньян, которая все-таки маниакально ходит и говорит: надо войти на Донбасс и освободить русское население.
Андрей Колесников: Это тоже важно. Вот кто представляет часть народа. Ее аудитория спрашивает: когда жахнем по Вашингтону? Ничего, они сейчас немножко разочаруются, а потом, может быть, воспрянут, потому что опять возникнет ситуация, когда этот вопрос станет совершенно законным. Сегодня в одной уважаемой газете я прочел мнение уважаемого колумниста о том, что все это специально делается американцами, чтобы удержать доллар от падения. Там слегка замысловатая логика, ее трудно назвать сугубо экономической. Мне представляется, что сила доллара не связана с этими комбинациями на границе.
Елена Рыковцева: Сила рубля очевидно связана.
Андрей Колесников: Сила рубля, конечно, от этого немножко пострадала. Песков дает интервью CNN и говорит, что сам Путин всегда предлагал переговоры: что вы нам морочите голову, мы за мир, мир победит войну! И это тоже важно, потому что он по своей сфере ответственности ответил самому главному каналу мира (американскому), сказал: ребята, спокойно, пока все отменяется. Эти полунамеки и месседжи, которые все равно приходится расшифровывать и интерпретировать, в целом говорят о том, что сейчас немножечко отступили назад, сосредоточили внимание на обсуждении "ЛНР" и "ДНР": независимость, не независимость, голосуем, огромная интрига, 13-ю зарплату отдай. Внимание немножечко переключается на сравнительно мирный сюжет. Так что пока держим паузу.
Сейчас немножечко отступили назад, сосредоточили внимание на обсуждении "ЛНР" и "ДНР"
Елена Рыковцева: То есть повестку смещают в сторону этого постановления о признании "республик". Пока думаем о том, как дальше быть с тем, что сами же и намолотили своими ультиматумами.
Андрей Колесников: Это один из элементов смещения повестки.
Елена Рыковцева: Мы сегодня спрашивали московских прохожих о том, кто выигрывает в этой бесконечной шахматной партии – Путин или Запад.
Елена Рыковцева: Такой же вопрос мы предложили нашему твиттеру. А у нас там такая система: когда вы пишете слово "Путин", всегда приходит очень много народу, который, как правило, пишет, что Путин во всем прав. Кто выигрывает в противостоянии: Путин – 71%, Запад – 18%, никто не выигрывает – 11%. Твиттер и улица едины во мнении, что успех на его стороне.
Самое интересное, что есть разные точки зрения. Например, Майкл Бом, известный человек, который работает американцем на телевизионных каналах (на самом деле хороший, толковый человек), говорит, что Запад в любом случае выиграет от того, что он назначил Путину дату вторжения, а Путин не вторгся. Это все равно будет победа Запада, потому что Запад объявит: это потому, что мы вмешались. Есть другая точка зрения – Запад назначает ему время вторжения, он не вторгается и тем самым ввергает Запад в полнейший позор, с этого момента Западу больше никто не верит, и Путин как раз победил. Вы ближе к какой?
Андрей Колесников: С точки зрения пиара, Путин, конечно, победитель. Он сильный человек, он всех напугал до смерти, как справедливо заметила женщина на улице, к нему же едут все, а он никуда не ездит. Как Сталин: тот тоже никуда не ездил, даже к союзникам, союзники всегда согласовывали с ним место, где встретиться, поближе к Кремлю – в Ялте, в Тегеране. Соответственно, он сильный, а все остальные слабые. Но это сила страха, и она ввергает в тревожное состояние самих россиян, которые, как известно из социологии, не без оснований боятся войны.
Путин сам себе выстраивает довольно серьезную долгосрочную ловушку, будучи краткосрочным победителем
Есть люди на улицах, которые говорят, что он прав, потому что на нас нападают, Украина ведет себя неправильно, а в чем неправильно, уже никто не может объяснить. А зачем нам нападать, если мы такие миролюбивые? Это не так, говорит женщина, мы не нападаем, это какая-то чушь собачья, это выглядит смешно. Nothing funny. Готовили вторжение. После того, как мы взяли Крым, ничего смешного быть не может, а может быть все, что угодно. Как в анекдоте: с кем граничит Россия? С кем хочет, с тем и граничит. Это кредо российской внешней политики и военной доктрины.
Соответственно, в долгосрочной перспективе Путин – не просто проигравший, это человек, который фактически проиграл страну. Он потерял Украину, и, я думаю, скоро потеряет Беларусь. Тот воображаемый союз, который он строит, мало кому нужен. Всем этим среднеазиатским республикам, сатрапиям не нужен этот Путин, у них свой вектор, они всегда ведут многовекторную политику. Так что в результате он войдет в историю как неудачник. Он и сейчас не может соскочить с этого корабля – это ли не свидетельство того, что он сам боится происходящего вокруг него, не собираясь уходить.
В случае, если Россия получит действительно серьезные санкции… Этот вопрос тоже обсуждается. Да, сейчас на санкции мало кто обращает внимание, население считает, что это на них толком не отразилось. Но если санкции будут серьезные, это отразится на населении, на его настроениях и отношении к Путину, каким бы правым его ни считали. Так что Путин сам себе выстраивает довольно серьезную долгосрочную ловушку, будучи краткосрочным победителем.
Continuation of the discussion, watch the video