How can Putin stay in power?

Talk about keeping Putin in power is ongoing in the Kremlin, the Federation Council and the State Duma. Few of these conversations become public, but Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov, in an interview published in Izvestia on March 2, admitted that Putin could stay if there was a "real threat" that a "new Fuhrer" with fascist nationalist ideology.

And although Putin has repeatedly said that he will not seek a third term and will find a successor, in reality there is no one who wants and can replace Putin, said Alexei Makarkin, an analyst at the Center for Political Technologies. In the absence of a clear rival, Putin may face little resistance to extending his term. Since the Duma is tightly controlled by the Kremlin, the presidential administration could change the constitution to allow Putin to run for a third time, or extend the presidential term. But this option Putin has repeatedly ruled out.

Some analysts believe that to keep Putin in power, the constitution will have to be changed, but Putin himself will never come up with such an initiative. It could well come from the Public Chamber, a semi-official body recently created by Putin to bridge the gap between government and civil society, Korgunyuk said. The Kremlin is closely monitoring the appointment of its members, who, by design, will express public opinion.

According to Mironov , the constitution does not need to be changed in order to make Putin prime minister.

However, Putin's recent initiative to abolish Duma elections in single-member districts is not consistent with the hypothesis of his becoming prime minister, said Vladimir Pribylovsky, an expert at the Panorama think-tank. "The pro-presidential United Russia party will by no means win a majority in the 2007 parliamentary elections, and then Putin will not be able to become the head of parliament," he said.

Despite the support Putin enjoys at home, the Kremlin may face resistance when it comes time to think about changing the constitution. To scare voters and the West into supporting Putin, the Kremlin may orchestrate the emergence of a radical nationalist party that it will control while claiming a real threat.

According to Pribylovsky and Korgunyuk, the Rodina party, a product of the Kremlin that combines nationalist and socialist rhetoric, is an ideal candidate for the role of an ideological scarecrow. Motherland was created shortly before the 2003 Duma elections, many say to steal votes from the Communists.

Rodina members don't need much persuasion from the Kremlin to launch an extremist campaign that would make Putin look like a beacon of moderation, Korgunyuk said. As an example, he cited a letter signed in January by several Rodina deputies calling for the closure of all Jewish organizations in Russia. A few days later, Putin publicly denounced anti-Semitism at a ceremony in Auschwitz.

Last week, the Duma rejected Rodina's proposed bill allowing the separatist republics of Georgia and Moldova to join Russia through referenda.

According to Makarkin, the Kremlin found it difficult to manage Motherland, and the Kremlin leadership lost its desire to play with the nationalists.

The Kremlin may also use the new Nashi youth organization as a symbol of the threat of radical nationalism. Nashi was reportedly set up by Putin's deputy chief of staff, Vladislav Surkov.

Sources

• Abdullaev N. Putin may stay after 2008 // InoPressa. 2005. March 18.